5 ms·

The K-index for this is an 8 which is one less than an extreme G5 geomagnetic storm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index

The K-index for this is an 8 which is one less than an extreme G5 geomagnetic storm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index). I haven't been able to find it, so I'm curious what the Carrington event K-index was?

gnatman 2y ago
This paper estimates Kp = (8.4±0.8). Because the scale is logarithmic, the difference between 8 and 9.2 is obviously quite extreme. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asna.20220078 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asna.2022007...
- unethical_ban 2y ago
  I'm sure there are articles discussing the point, but I wonder why citizen-facing scales don't use more linear representations for things.
  - giantg2 2y ago
    Because citizens aren't expected to need to know the scale. They are only expected to follow the guidance their governments issue.
    - salad-tycoon 2y ago
      I like the response, seems very astute of an observation. Interpreting this in the worse light possible… in other words, gate keeping. I think a lot more people could understand and be mature in a lot more things if artificial and archaic barriers weren’t erected. I think not trusting the public is a recipe for an obscure elite ruling class. Sure, not a whole lot of people will get it but at least be open about it. Then again, maybe there is a benefit to using that particular scale and I’ve been poisoned by my generational ills. Not trying to be argumentative. If I hazarded a guess it’s the second reason right?
      - topherclay 2y ago
        There's no artificial barriers being errected here by deciding to say "8" instead of writing out 8 zeros.
      - diffeomorphism 2y ago
        Obvious answer: compare 10000000 vs 7. Which is easier to understand?
      - Kerb_ 2y ago
        I was taught logarithmic scales in middle school. If every concept needs to be dumbed down to a pre-middle school level for maximum accessibility (to minimize gatekeeping), you're going to end up with a public who literally can't comprehend the things they're being told because they stopped learning before middle school.
        kortilla 2y ago
        The average comprehension is grade school level
        giantg2 2y ago
        I believe it's a 4th grade level, specifically. I think that's part of the basis for the show Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader.
      - ben_w 2y ago
        That's a reason to not use Latin; but when it comes to numbers and scales… I was surprised to discover that other people are themselves often surprised when they learn that a billion is a thousand times larger than a million.
        closewith 2y ago
        Which is itself a relatively recent standardisation. Up to the '70's, a billion could beat thousand million or million million depending on where you were.
  - malfist 2y ago
    Because many things are logarithmic in nature. Take for example sound. The decibel scale is logarithmic and it makes perfect sense.
  - hobofan 2y ago
    Linear scales usually don't have an intuitive upper limit that people can understand ("is 10000 bad?"). Citizen-facing scales should optimally go from 0 (no concern) to 10 (either world-shattering event or highest value ever observed). Due to the nature of how many natural disasters scale in impact on humans, this will often result in an logarithmic scale.
    - medstrom 2y ago
      Excellent point about linear, but sometimes log_10 accelerates pointlessly fast. log_2 might be more reasonable.
      - esmein 2y ago
        As an enthusiastic amateur photographer I'm a big fan of log_2 scales. Photography is full of them, most settings follow it and photographers call them "stops". One stop more is twice the light. People don't even think about logarithmic scales but it's very easy to intuit what going up and down the log_2 scales will result in. Good scale, I like it.
  - blueflow 2y ago
    Logarithmic scales are not that exotic. "Damages going in the 6-digits" is a common thing to say and people do understand.
dave78 2y ago
SWPC is now showing this storm as a G5 with a K-index of 9: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
- carabiner 2y ago
  Mother of god.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- hughesjj 2y ago
  I wonder what the margin of error is, as it just dropped again That puts us .2 (logarithmically) under the known upper bound for the Carrington event (from above in the thread)
- bamboozled 2y ago
  Yikes

gnatman 2y ago

This paper estimates Kp = (8.4±0.8). Because the scale is logarithmic, the difference between 8 and 9.2 is obviously quite extreme. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asna.20220078 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asna.2022007...

unethical_ban 2y ago
I'm sure there are articles discussing the point, but I wonder why citizen-facing scales don't use more linear representations for things.
- giantg2 2y ago
  Because citizens aren't expected to need to know the scale. They are only expected to follow the guidance their governments issue.
  - salad-tycoon 2y ago
    I like the response, seems very astute of an observation. Interpreting this in the worse light possible… in other words, gate keeping. I think a lot more people could understand and be mature in a lot more things if artificial and archaic barriers weren’t erected. I think not trusting the public is a recipe for an obscure elite ruling class. Sure, not a whole lot of people will get it but at least be open about it. Then again, maybe there is a benefit to using that particular scale and I’ve been poisoned by my generational ills. Not trying to be argumentative. If I hazarded a guess it’s the second reason right?
    - topherclay 2y ago
      There's no artificial barriers being errected here by deciding to say "8" instead of writing out 8 zeros.
    - diffeomorphism 2y ago
      Obvious answer: compare 10000000 vs 7. Which is easier to understand?
    - Kerb_ 2y ago
      I was taught logarithmic scales in middle school. If every concept needs to be dumbed down to a pre-middle school level for maximum accessibility (to minimize gatekeeping), you're going to end up with a public who literally can't comprehend the things they're being told because they stopped learning before middle school.
      - kortilla 2y ago
        The average comprehension is grade school level
        giantg2 2y ago
        I believe it's a 4th grade level, specifically. I think that's part of the basis for the show Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader.
    - ben_w 2y ago
      That's a reason to not use Latin; but when it comes to numbers and scales… I was surprised to discover that other people are themselves often surprised when they learn that a billion is a thousand times larger than a million.
      - closewith 2y ago
        Which is itself a relatively recent standardisation. Up to the '70's, a billion could beat thousand million or million million depending on where you were.
- malfist 2y ago
  Because many things are logarithmic in nature. Take for example sound. The decibel scale is logarithmic and it makes perfect sense.
- hobofan 2y ago
  Linear scales usually don't have an intuitive upper limit that people can understand ("is 10000 bad?"). Citizen-facing scales should optimally go from 0 (no concern) to 10 (either world-shattering event or highest value ever observed). Due to the nature of how many natural disasters scale in impact on humans, this will often result in an logarithmic scale.
  - medstrom 2y ago
    Excellent point about linear, but sometimes log_10 accelerates pointlessly fast. log_2 might be more reasonable.
    - esmein 2y ago
      As an enthusiastic amateur photographer I'm a big fan of log_2 scales. Photography is full of them, most settings follow it and photographers call them "stops". One stop more is twice the light. People don't even think about logarithmic scales but it's very easy to intuit what going up and down the log_2 scales will result in. Good scale, I like it.
- blueflow 2y ago
  Logarithmic scales are not that exotic. "Damages going in the 6-digits" is a common thing to say and people do understand.

dave78 2y ago

SWPC is now showing this storm as a G5 with a K-index of 9: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

carabiner 2y ago
Mother of god.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
hughesjj 2y ago
I wonder what the margin of error is, as it just dropped again That puts us .2 (logarithmically) under the known upper bound for the Carrington event (from above in the thread)
bamboozled 2y ago
Yikes