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It's interesting to revisit the Limits to Growth study [1] in light of these recently-declining exponential curves. Somebody did [2] and found that we're basic

It's interesting to revisit the Limits to Growth study [1] in light of these recently-declining exponential curves. Somebody did [2] and found that we're basically on track for the model's bleak predictions. But the way that the model's predictions have come true is different than what's been popularized. Instead of mass die-offs from famine and pollution, we're seeing population collapse because of birth control, declining fertility, and the rising (opportunity) cost of raising a family. Instead of seeing a collapse in industrial output because of declining resources, we're seeing a collapse in industrial output because of market saturation and a shift toward services and online experiences. Instead of pollution growing unbounded, it's actually declining because of green technology and de-industrialization. The world is still trending toward a dystopian hellscape, but the dystopian hellscape is not a barren planet where nothing grows and we've stripped everything bare, it's a dystopian hellscape of everybody glued to their device and ignoring social interaction or family formation because Fortnite is more interesting. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth [2] https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xw3x/new-research-vindicates-1972-mit-prediction-that-society-will-collapse-soon https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xw3x/new-research-vindicat...

detourdog 2y ago
It might be more like the "dark ages". The people got along we don't know what they were doing but the result was the "renaissance".
- 2four2 2y ago
  The growth in power of megacorporations has been coined a new type of feudalism, so dark ages might not be a bad description.
- maxwell 2y ago
  They were called such due to the decline of written material: the written record went "dark" compared to antiquity and then modernity. Definitely in another dark age in that sense, due to the postmodern decline of meaningful written communication on paper.
  - detourdog 2y ago
    That is what I see. The amount of disposable content has made actual information hard to see.
robohydrate 2y ago
I've been playing Fortnite almost every night for 5+ years because it is more interesting than doomscrolling on my phone!
jackcosgrove 2y ago
The distinction between the two scenarios is the original, theoretical scenario did not foresee the negative feedback loops that actually occurred. It's a pretty glaring miss when you're trying to make predictions. This is why I was always skeptical of dystopias that depend on overpopulation. If life is so miserable why would people continue to have so many children?
- cvwright 2y ago
  “life is so miserable” and yet “so many children” was basically most of human history
  - wing-_-nuts 2y ago
    This was well before birth control became widespread. When you can decouple the fun part from the responsibility that comes with it, you do so. Hence, why the fertility rate has been falling below replacement around the developed world.
  - jackcosgrove 2y ago
    Infant and child mortality was very high. Empirically the high birth rate did not always lead to overpopulation - overpopulation waxed and waned despite the persistently high birth rate. The sci-fi dystopias about overpopulation never really come up with a mechanism by which the birth rate remains high despite low infant and child mortality and low economic need for human labor. It always seems to boil down to "people are controlled by irrational instincts".
  - Fatnino 2y ago
    There's an old cemetery in Redwood City. Very roughly speaking it was active for about 100 years between 1850 and 1950. There are multiple grave markers listing children that died under the age of 10. Like a family had a 4 year old die, then had a baby 2 years later and then 3 years later buried that baby in the same grave as their older sibling.
- wing-_-nuts 2y ago
  >If life is so miserable why would people continue to have so many children? This right here is why I'm child free. First, My own upbringing did nothing to equip me to properly raise a child. I simply cannot trust myself to do a good job. Second, why would I bring a child into a world where each year will only be worst than the last, and their lot in life is to suffer the decline of the natural world and perhaps civilization as we know it until they themselves have to make the same choice? I'm sure someday the future will look brighter but it sure as heck isn't today, or any time in the next 50 years.
cs702 2y ago
> The world is still trending toward a dystopian hellscape, but the dystopian hellscape is not a barren planet where nothing grows and we've stripped everything bare, it's a dystopian hellscape of everybody glued to their device and ignoring social interaction or family formation because Fortnite is more interesting. Even though your statement is meant to be evocative, as opposed to factually descriptive, it sure feels to me like it captures the zeitgeist. Which is... disappointing, upsetting, sad. I suspect that, like me, you hope you're wrong.
deleted 2y ago
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detourdog 2y ago

It might be more like the "dark ages". The people got along we don't know what they were doing but the result was the "renaissance".

2four2 2y ago
The growth in power of megacorporations has been coined a new type of feudalism, so dark ages might not be a bad description.
maxwell 2y ago
They were called such due to the decline of written material: the written record went "dark" compared to antiquity and then modernity. Definitely in another dark age in that sense, due to the postmodern decline of meaningful written communication on paper.
- detourdog 2y ago
  That is what I see. The amount of disposable content has made actual information hard to see.

robohydrate 2y ago

I've been playing Fortnite almost every night for 5+ years because it is more interesting than doomscrolling on my phone!

jackcosgrove 2y ago

The distinction between the two scenarios is the original, theoretical scenario did not foresee the negative feedback loops that actually occurred. It's a pretty glaring miss when you're trying to make predictions. This is why I was always skeptical of dystopias that depend on overpopulation. If life is so miserable why would people continue to have so many children?

cvwright 2y ago
“life is so miserable” and yet “so many children” was basically most of human history
- wing-_-nuts 2y ago
  This was well before birth control became widespread. When you can decouple the fun part from the responsibility that comes with it, you do so. Hence, why the fertility rate has been falling below replacement around the developed world.
- jackcosgrove 2y ago
  Infant and child mortality was very high. Empirically the high birth rate did not always lead to overpopulation - overpopulation waxed and waned despite the persistently high birth rate. The sci-fi dystopias about overpopulation never really come up with a mechanism by which the birth rate remains high despite low infant and child mortality and low economic need for human labor. It always seems to boil down to "people are controlled by irrational instincts".
- Fatnino 2y ago
  There's an old cemetery in Redwood City. Very roughly speaking it was active for about 100 years between 1850 and 1950. There are multiple grave markers listing children that died under the age of 10. Like a family had a 4 year old die, then had a baby 2 years later and then 3 years later buried that baby in the same grave as their older sibling.
wing-_-nuts 2y ago
>If life is so miserable why would people continue to have so many children? This right here is why I'm child free. First, My own upbringing did nothing to equip me to properly raise a child. I simply cannot trust myself to do a good job. Second, why would I bring a child into a world where each year will only be worst than the last, and their lot in life is to suffer the decline of the natural world and perhaps civilization as we know it until they themselves have to make the same choice? I'm sure someday the future will look brighter but it sure as heck isn't today, or any time in the next 50 years.

cs702 2y ago

> The world is still trending toward a dystopian hellscape, but the dystopian hellscape is not a barren planet where nothing grows and we've stripped everything bare, it's a dystopian hellscape of everybody glued to their device and ignoring social interaction or family formation because Fortnite is more interesting. Even though your statement is meant to be evocative, as opposed to factually descriptive, it sure feels to me like it captures the zeitgeist. Which is... disappointing, upsetting, sad. I suspect that, like me, you hope you're wrong.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]