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>Stock is short-sighted stock is not short sighted. It does react quickly to information (which means it was too late to short a while ago) but to think that y

>Stock is short-sighted stock is not short sighted. It does react quickly to information (which means it was too late to short a while ago) but to think that you can make money by not buying stock now, but waiting to buy it at another time is really terrible advice, and it's been refuted. To believe that stock is short-sighted is to believe that investers as a group are dumber than you are because they've put their money into the market but you know better.

hiatus 2y ago
> To believe that stock is short-sighted is to believe that investers as a group are dumber than you are because they've put their money into the market but you know better. There is a saying you may not be familiar with, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
- fsckboy 2y ago
  what's your definition of irrational?... the market doesn't know the future, it just incorporates current knowledge and opinion. Is AI a bubble right now? the vast riches afforded those who make the right call when AI is ready is justification enough for current enthusiasm, no irrationality needs to be hypothesized. And like people who lost their bet on the 49ers to win the Superbowl, there's no reason to posit irrationality if a bet doesn't pay.
stephc_int13 2y ago
The stock market, or any kind of market really, is nothing else than a huge distributed pricing machine. It is incredibly good at doing that. But it is short sighted. It is able to integrate risks to some extent, on a short time scale, but it is very bad at processing second or third order effects, and can't do strategy. In other words, the famous invisible hand is completely unable to predict the future. Humans are also notoriously bad at that, but still better. This is why we have states and CEOs.
- fsckboy 2y ago
  at the beginning of every day, the market has a greater probability of going up than down, and a risk adjusted positive expected value (which is a different thing) Therefore, your money should always be "in the market", not out of the market. Therefore, it's very difficult to make the case that the market is short sighted. I think what you are trying to say is that immediate risks are better understood than longer term, so the more distant future has higher volatility.

hiatus 2y ago

> To believe that stock is short-sighted is to believe that investers as a group are dumber than you are because they've put their money into the market but you know better. There is a saying you may not be familiar with, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

fsckboy 2y ago
what's your definition of irrational?... the market doesn't know the future, it just incorporates current knowledge and opinion. Is AI a bubble right now? the vast riches afforded those who make the right call when AI is ready is justification enough for current enthusiasm, no irrationality needs to be hypothesized. And like people who lost their bet on the 49ers to win the Superbowl, there's no reason to posit irrationality if a bet doesn't pay.

stephc_int13 2y ago

The stock market, or any kind of market really, is nothing else than a huge distributed pricing machine. It is incredibly good at doing that. But it is short sighted. It is able to integrate risks to some extent, on a short time scale, but it is very bad at processing second or third order effects, and can't do strategy. In other words, the famous invisible hand is completely unable to predict the future. Humans are also notoriously bad at that, but still better. This is why we have states and CEOs.

fsckboy 2y ago
at the beginning of every day, the market has a greater probability of going up than down, and a risk adjusted positive expected value (which is a different thing) Therefore, your money should always be "in the market", not out of the market. Therefore, it's very difficult to make the case that the market is short sighted. I think what you are trying to say is that immediate risks are better understood than longer term, so the more distant future has higher volatility.