Obviously the Intelligence community doesn't say exactly how they learned such things, making it difficult to say if they used SIGINT, HUMINT, or something else

Obviously the Intelligence community doesn't say exactly how they learned such things, making it difficult to say if they used SIGINT, HUMINT, or something else, but there have been some big displays of their overall effectiveness recently. 1) Clearly the US Intelligence community telegraphed Russia's plans to invade Ukraine well in advance. 2) Recently the US warned of an impending terror attack on a concert in Moscow just before one happened. Most intelligence they collect won't be made public, so only those in the higher echelons of government will know what they regularly learn. But I do think they have demonstrated the ability to predict the future more than a few times with their public statements.