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I agree with the meaning and the premise of your question, but, pedantically, it is not always a good idea to go out and admit how effective a secret program is

I agree with the meaning and the premise of your question, but, pedantically, it is not always a good idea to go out and admit how effective a secret program is. Think about it in the context of national security and foreign policy - e.g. "we have broken 86% of other governments' encryption" - is not a stat you'd share. Maybe more pointed to the discussion here, by sharing how the program is successful, it would be a powerful indicator about what kinds of crimes criminals should focus on with the lowest risks.

autoexec 2y ago
> "we have broken 86% of other governments' encryption" - is not a stat you'd share...by sharing how the program is successful, it would be a powerful indicator about what kinds of crimes criminals should focus on with the lowest risks. They can not tell us that they are reading the encrypted communications of other governments but still tell us "We caught Joe Criminal on Wednesday who tried to blow up the moon, and Bill Evilguy on Friday who tried to poison the waterhole, and Amanda Terrorist on Sunday who tried to murder 10,000 kittens". Then they could hold public trials for those terrorists where even if we can't see all of the evidence we still know exactly who they are imprisoning/killing, when and how often. If criminals come to realize that terrorist attacks are likely to get them killed or sent to rot in gitmo because of how successful our spy agencies are, and they decide to hold up liqueur stores instead how is that a bad thing?
- abakker 2y ago
  well, its been a while, but I remember seeing a study that states with the death penalty actually had higher incidence of violent crime. From that, it was posited that the existence of harsher punishments don't seem to offer much deterrent value because criminals do not expect to be caught. Further, there was discussion that state-sponsored demonstrations of power/punishment play a role in normalizing that behavior in the first place. Personally, I think both categories are likely true, but I couldn't comment on the effect size. One thing that law enforcement stats generally indicate is that a great deal of property crime is uninvestigated and unsolved. Maybe that is fine, but detailing, "we tried our literal best surveillance methods and have not managed to reduce convenience store robberies" gives an edge to those who would like to premeditate. Of course, if they think they won't get caught in the first place, it doesn't matter.

autoexec 2y ago

> "we have broken 86% of other governments' encryption" - is not a stat you'd share...by sharing how the program is successful, it would be a powerful indicator about what kinds of crimes criminals should focus on with the lowest risks. They can not tell us that they are reading the encrypted communications of other governments but still tell us "We caught Joe Criminal on Wednesday who tried to blow up the moon, and Bill Evilguy on Friday who tried to poison the waterhole, and Amanda Terrorist on Sunday who tried to murder 10,000 kittens". Then they could hold public trials for those terrorists where even if we can't see all of the evidence we still know exactly who they are imprisoning/killing, when and how often. If criminals come to realize that terrorist attacks are likely to get them killed or sent to rot in gitmo because of how successful our spy agencies are, and they decide to hold up liqueur stores instead how is that a bad thing?

abakker 2y ago
well, its been a while, but I remember seeing a study that states with the death penalty actually had higher incidence of violent crime. From that, it was posited that the existence of harsher punishments don't seem to offer much deterrent value because criminals do not expect to be caught. Further, there was discussion that state-sponsored demonstrations of power/punishment play a role in normalizing that behavior in the first place. Personally, I think both categories are likely true, but I couldn't comment on the effect size. One thing that law enforcement stats generally indicate is that a great deal of property crime is uninvestigated and unsolved. Maybe that is fine, but detailing, "we tried our literal best surveillance methods and have not managed to reduce convenience store robberies" gives an edge to those who would like to premeditate. Of course, if they think they won't get caught in the first place, it doesn't matter.