The whole point of past AI winters is that genuinely useful technologies were preposterously overhyped as representing "human cognition," despite overwhelming e

The whole point of past AI winters is that genuinely useful technologies were preposterously overhyped as representing "human cognition," despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. The bubble bursts - and the money evaporates - because expectations come crashing down, not because the usefulness was a mirage. Lisp was hardly the key to human symbolic thought like some hoped it would be, but it helped improve programming languages across the board. Perceptrons really are quite limited and there's absolutely no way you could emulate a human brain with them alone, but they're still essential for more advanced ML. But you would think after 70 years AI practitioners would learn some humility! It is very obvious that GPT-4 is dumber than a honeybee, let alone a cat, let alone a crow. But for over a year I've heard dozens of tech folks insist it's smarter than most people.