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You raise an extremely important point. It appears to me that most people do not understand the implications of your point. Organized terrorism by groups is ac

You raise an extremely important point. It appears to me that most people do not understand the implications of your point. Organized terrorism by groups is actually extremely rare. What is much less rare are mass shootings in the USA, by deranged individuals. What would a psychopathic mass shooter type choose as a weapon if he not only had access to semi-automatic weapons, but now we added bio-weapons to the menu? It seems very clear to me that when creating custom viruses becomes high school level knowledge, and the tools can be charged on a credit card, nuclear weapons will be relegated to the second most likely way that our human civilization will end. I believe the two concepts being brought together here are the Law of Large Numbers, and the sudden ability for one single human to kill at least millions.

tsimionescu 3y ago
> It seems very clear to me that when creating custom viruses becomes high school level knowledge That would be very bad indeed, but there is no path from AI to that. Making custom viruses is never going to be an easy task even if you had a magic machine that could explain the effects of adding any chemical to the mix. You still need to procure the chemicals and work with them in very careful ways, often for a long time, in a highly controlled environment. It's still biology lab work, even if you know exactly what you have to do. Also, bioweapons already exist and have been used in a few conflicts, even as recently as WWII. They're terrifying in many ways, but are not really comparable to the horror of nuclear weapons hitting major cities.
- consumer451 3y ago
  > Making custom viruses is never going to be an easy task even if you had a magic machine that could explain the effects of adding any chemical to the mix. You still need to procure the chemicals and work with them in very careful ways, often for a long time, in a highly controlled environment. It's still biology lab work, even if you know exactly what you have to do. You appear to be talking about today. I am referring to some point in the future. If you extrapolate our technological progress out to the future, it certainly seems possible, at some point.
  - tsimionescu 3y ago
    Not based on AI biochemistry simulators, at the very least.
- TeMPOraL 3y ago
  > You still need to procure the chemicals and work with them in very careful ways, often for a long time, in a highly controlled environment. It's still biology lab work, even if you know exactly what you have to do. You can get that as-a-Service, and I imagine that successes in computational biology will make mail-order protein synthesis broadly available. At that point, making a bioweapon or creating a grey goo (green goo) scenario will be a divide-and-conquer issue: how many pieces you need to procure independently from different facilities, so that no one suspects what you're doing until you mix them together and the world goes poof.
  - tsimionescu 3y ago
    We know the principles of how to make very powerful and dangerous anorganic compounds today, with extreme precision. Do you see any chemistry-as-a-service products that sell to the general public? Is it easy to obtain the components and expertise to make sarin gas, a clearly existing and much simpler to synthesize substance than some hypothetical green goo bioweapon?
    - TeMPOraL 3y ago
      > Do you see any chemistry-as-a-service products that sell to the general public? Sort of? Depends on how general you insist the general public to be. Never used one myself, but I used to lurk on nootropic and cognitive enhancement groups, and I recall some people claiming they managed to get experimental nootropics synthesized and sent from abroad, without any special license or access. And then there's all the lab supply companies - again, I never tried, but talking with people I never got the impression it's in any way restricted, other than being niche; I never heard them e.g. requiring a verified association with an university lab or something. Hell, back in high school, my classmate managed to get his hand on some uranium salts (half for chemistry nerdom, half for pure bragging rights), with zero problems. > Is it easy to obtain the components and expertise to make sarin gas, a clearly existing and much simpler to synthesize substance than some hypothetical green goo bioweapon? Given that I know for a fact that making several kinds of explosives and propellants is a bored middle-schooler level problem, I imagine sarin is also synthesizeable by a smart amateur. Fortunately, the intersection of being able to make it, and having a malicious reason for it, is vanishingly small. But I don't doubt that, should a terrorist group decide to use some of either, there's approximately nothing that can stop from cooking some up. What makes me more nervous about potential biosafety issues in the future is that, well, sarin is only effective as far as the air circulation will carry it; pathogens have indefinite range.

tsimionescu 3y ago

> It seems very clear to me that when creating custom viruses becomes high school level knowledge That would be very bad indeed, but there is no path from AI to that. Making custom viruses is never going to be an easy task even if you had a magic machine that could explain the effects of adding any chemical to the mix. You still need to procure the chemicals and work with them in very careful ways, often for a long time, in a highly controlled environment. It's still biology lab work, even if you know exactly what you have to do. Also, bioweapons already exist and have been used in a few conflicts, even as recently as WWII. They're terrifying in many ways, but are not really comparable to the horror of nuclear weapons hitting major cities.

consumer451 3y ago
> Making custom viruses is never going to be an easy task even if you had a magic machine that could explain the effects of adding any chemical to the mix. You still need to procure the chemicals and work with them in very careful ways, often for a long time, in a highly controlled environment. It's still biology lab work, even if you know exactly what you have to do. You appear to be talking about today. I am referring to some point in the future. If you extrapolate our technological progress out to the future, it certainly seems possible, at some point.
- tsimionescu 3y ago
  Not based on AI biochemistry simulators, at the very least.
TeMPOraL 3y ago
> You still need to procure the chemicals and work with them in very careful ways, often for a long time, in a highly controlled environment. It's still biology lab work, even if you know exactly what you have to do. You can get that as-a-Service, and I imagine that successes in computational biology will make mail-order protein synthesis broadly available. At that point, making a bioweapon or creating a grey goo (green goo) scenario will be a divide-and-conquer issue: how many pieces you need to procure independently from different facilities, so that no one suspects what you're doing until you mix them together and the world goes poof.
- tsimionescu 3y ago
  We know the principles of how to make very powerful and dangerous anorganic compounds today, with extreme precision. Do you see any chemistry-as-a-service products that sell to the general public? Is it easy to obtain the components and expertise to make sarin gas, a clearly existing and much simpler to synthesize substance than some hypothetical green goo bioweapon?
  - TeMPOraL 3y ago
    > Do you see any chemistry-as-a-service products that sell to the general public? Sort of? Depends on how general you insist the general public to be. Never used one myself, but I used to lurk on nootropic and cognitive enhancement groups, and I recall some people claiming they managed to get experimental nootropics synthesized and sent from abroad, without any special license or access. And then there's all the lab supply companies - again, I never tried, but talking with people I never got the impression it's in any way restricted, other than being niche; I never heard them e.g. requiring a verified association with an university lab or something. Hell, back in high school, my classmate managed to get his hand on some uranium salts (half for chemistry nerdom, half for pure bragging rights), with zero problems. > Is it easy to obtain the components and expertise to make sarin gas, a clearly existing and much simpler to synthesize substance than some hypothetical green goo bioweapon? Given that I know for a fact that making several kinds of explosives and propellants is a bored middle-schooler level problem, I imagine sarin is also synthesizeable by a smart amateur. Fortunately, the intersection of being able to make it, and having a malicious reason for it, is vanishingly small. But I don't doubt that, should a terrorist group decide to use some of either, there's approximately nothing that can stop from cooking some up. What makes me more nervous about potential biosafety issues in the future is that, well, sarin is only effective as far as the air circulation will carry it; pathogens have indefinite range.