4 ms·

I think you underestimate the costs of climate change. When areas of the planet become uninhabitable for humans without air conditioning, then there's going to

I think you underestimate the costs of climate change. When areas of the planet become uninhabitable for humans without air conditioning, then there's going to be a mass movement of people which will most likely lead to famine and wars. Currently we rely on stable weather patterns to produce most of our food and that's not likely to be able to continue. I fear that war is going to come about because of the changing climate.

roenxi 3y ago
That scenario is so complicated and requires so many tenuous assumptions that it might just happen anyway. The demographic stats already suggest that the future is going to be very African, that there will be lots of migration and we've had a couple of migration waves triggered by stuff that isn't climate change. The problem isn't climate, it is that there are too many people and they keep having kids. Although right now the trend in global birth rates is extremely promising and if that keeps up (keeps down?) we'll be fine.
- ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
  I don't understand what you mean by "tenuous assumptions". There's almost certainly going to be areas which are already near the limits of human survivability without air conditioning (high wet bulb temperatures of more than 30 degrees Celsius) and some of those areas will become even hotter in a warming earth. The problem most definitely is a changing climate and especially if it becomes unstable as we rely on stable conditions to grow food. Yes, there are too many people, but we're not going to have to wait for declining birth rates as lots of people will die from famine and wars due to the pressures involved with climate change.
  - roenxi 3y ago
    You start with "climate is changing", then there are a lot of implicit steps and you end up at "there's going to be a mass movement" and transition to "most likely lead to famine and wars". There are two jumps there; both unlikely to play out. People might import food from newly created foodbowls for example - as far as I recall China technically can't feed its own population without imports and that hasn't caused any famines. Or it may turn out edible plants can adapt really easily to temperatures in the 40+ range, it wouldn't be the first time we've adjusted our food to suit conditions that it wouldn't naturally cope with. And we already have mass movements; something like 4% humans [0] migrated during their life. Things like people fleeing world wars I & II were probably extreme too. The movements were generally net positives for the receiving country. It isn't clear mass movements do lead to wars, or implicitly need to. And to top it all off, people might just not migrate. It is most likely cheaper to build local shelters than uproot a family and move countries. As I mentioned upthread, if you describe normal conditions in a random Russian town it sounds like hell on earth - it is hell on earth, 9th circle stuff - people still live there. No mass migrations. [0] https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2022-interactive/ https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2022-interactive/
    - ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
      Okay, you don't seem to appreciate the scale of the issues. It's not just a case of getting crops to adapt to higher temperatures - it's the unpredictability of rainfall that's going to cause (and is starting to cause) crop failures. People have already suffered famines in countries where crops have failed due to unusual dry or wet periods, so it's hardly a jump to predict that those kinds of famines are going to become more frequent and severe. You don't seem to understand the concept of high wet bulb temperatures either as building a shelter is not going to be of any help unless those shelters have extensive cooling or air conditioning. Humans just can't survive a wet bulb temperature of more than 31 degrees Celsius or so, even with unlimited access to drinking water and fans. I don't see how it is possible for people to continue living in their current country if they have to cope with lack of food, water and survivable temperatures. I think you're being excessively optimistic, but I hope you're right. Unfortunately, experts don't agree with you. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/...
      - roenxi 3y ago
        Looking at https://ourworldindata.org/famines https://ourworldindata.org/famines though, we've pretty much solved famine as a problem. You're assuming that we can't do it a 2nd time if the climate changes - but we probably can. Organising food isn't a new problem for society, we've been working on this for all of recorded history and gotten really good at it. I can imagine a brutal transitional famine if we get caught unprepared; could happen. But so many people are looking at climate change it seems like the people who need to know would know. The farmers know about it, the insurers know about it, the governments know, so on and so forth. It might just as easily be a non-issue. > ... building a shelter is not going to be of any help unless those shelters have extensive cooling or air conditioning... Yep. If it were you, would you build an extensive shelter with air conditioning or declare war on someone a continent away? I think the shelter is the easy option. It is roughly analogous to a snowstorm - I have relatives who are prepared to live in isolation for a good month. Climate events trying to kill us is not all that new. Surprises hurt, but if they happen a few times we'll just start taking them in stride.

roenxi 3y ago

That scenario is so complicated and requires so many tenuous assumptions that it might just happen anyway. The demographic stats already suggest that the future is going to be very African, that there will be lots of migration and we've had a couple of migration waves triggered by stuff that isn't climate change. The problem isn't climate, it is that there are too many people and they keep having kids. Although right now the trend in global birth rates is extremely promising and if that keeps up (keeps down?) we'll be fine.

ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
I don't understand what you mean by "tenuous assumptions". There's almost certainly going to be areas which are already near the limits of human survivability without air conditioning (high wet bulb temperatures of more than 30 degrees Celsius) and some of those areas will become even hotter in a warming earth. The problem most definitely is a changing climate and especially if it becomes unstable as we rely on stable conditions to grow food. Yes, there are too many people, but we're not going to have to wait for declining birth rates as lots of people will die from famine and wars due to the pressures involved with climate change.
- roenxi 3y ago
  You start with "climate is changing", then there are a lot of implicit steps and you end up at "there's going to be a mass movement" and transition to "most likely lead to famine and wars". There are two jumps there; both unlikely to play out. People might import food from newly created foodbowls for example - as far as I recall China technically can't feed its own population without imports and that hasn't caused any famines. Or it may turn out edible plants can adapt really easily to temperatures in the 40+ range, it wouldn't be the first time we've adjusted our food to suit conditions that it wouldn't naturally cope with. And we already have mass movements; something like 4% humans [0] migrated during their life. Things like people fleeing world wars I & II were probably extreme too. The movements were generally net positives for the receiving country. It isn't clear mass movements do lead to wars, or implicitly need to. And to top it all off, people might just not migrate. It is most likely cheaper to build local shelters than uproot a family and move countries. As I mentioned upthread, if you describe normal conditions in a random Russian town it sounds like hell on earth - it is hell on earth, 9th circle stuff - people still live there. No mass migrations. [0] https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2022-interactive/ https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2022-interactive/
  - ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
    Okay, you don't seem to appreciate the scale of the issues. It's not just a case of getting crops to adapt to higher temperatures - it's the unpredictability of rainfall that's going to cause (and is starting to cause) crop failures. People have already suffered famines in countries where crops have failed due to unusual dry or wet periods, so it's hardly a jump to predict that those kinds of famines are going to become more frequent and severe. You don't seem to understand the concept of high wet bulb temperatures either as building a shelter is not going to be of any help unless those shelters have extensive cooling or air conditioning. Humans just can't survive a wet bulb temperature of more than 31 degrees Celsius or so, even with unlimited access to drinking water and fans. I don't see how it is possible for people to continue living in their current country if they have to cope with lack of food, water and survivable temperatures. I think you're being excessively optimistic, but I hope you're right. Unfortunately, experts don't agree with you. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/...
    - roenxi 3y ago
      Looking at https://ourworldindata.org/famines https://ourworldindata.org/famines though, we've pretty much solved famine as a problem. You're assuming that we can't do it a 2nd time if the climate changes - but we probably can. Organising food isn't a new problem for society, we've been working on this for all of recorded history and gotten really good at it. I can imagine a brutal transitional famine if we get caught unprepared; could happen. But so many people are looking at climate change it seems like the people who need to know would know. The farmers know about it, the insurers know about it, the governments know, so on and so forth. It might just as easily be a non-issue. > ... building a shelter is not going to be of any help unless those shelters have extensive cooling or air conditioning... Yep. If it were you, would you build an extensive shelter with air conditioning or declare war on someone a continent away? I think the shelter is the easy option. It is roughly analogous to a snowstorm - I have relatives who are prepared to live in isolation for a good month. Climate events trying to kill us is not all that new. Surprises hurt, but if they happen a few times we'll just start taking them in stride.