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I expect US hardware companies shares to start falling in about 10 years. I don't think it will take China more than that to reach parity on semiconductor manuf

I expect US hardware companies shares to start falling in about 10 years. I don't think it will take China more than that to reach parity on semiconductor manufacturing. After that we will see a flood of lower cost hardware coming to the rest of the world, CPUs, GPUs, AI chips. That will put pressure on Intel, Qualcomm, Nvidia and the likes. I'd invest in US tech companies for the next few years and after that move to Asian companies.

speedylight 3y ago
But in 10 years the goalposts for what’s considered achieving parity will change, because China won’t be the only one making improvements in semiconductor manufacturing. The West will always have the upper hand so long as we don’t drop the ball completely.
- beAbU 3y ago
  And the dropping of balls by a US semiconductor manufacturer has never happened before. So we should be OK.
- DeathArrow 3y ago
  To reach parity they just have to advance at a higher speed than the US. Totally doable with enough resources, planning and determination.
- maxglute 3y ago
  >West will always have the upper hand Every major western semi partner currently projecting talent shortage of 100,000s in 5-10+ year time frame. VS PRC at ~500k/700k of domestic IC talent they think they need for indigenous industry according to 2018 white paper (IIRC same year they started prioritizing talent production to first-level discipline), and now academic system is generating ~30k IC talent per year. TLDR is everyone maybe making improvements, but PRC uniquely positioned to have requisit talent to catchup/exceed, and have advantage of coordinating entire semi industrial base in single jurisdiction. Semi talent development is still one area where west is actively dropping ball, and unless TSMC Arizona sort out their worker/cultural drama, might continue to if west can't elevate semi to desirable career.
refurb 3y ago
What makes you think the West will allow Chinese made chips into their countries?

speedylight 3y ago

But in 10 years the goalposts for what’s considered achieving parity will change, because China won’t be the only one making improvements in semiconductor manufacturing. The West will always have the upper hand so long as we don’t drop the ball completely.

beAbU 3y ago
And the dropping of balls by a US semiconductor manufacturer has never happened before. So we should be OK.
DeathArrow 3y ago
To reach parity they just have to advance at a higher speed than the US. Totally doable with enough resources, planning and determination.
maxglute 3y ago
>West will always have the upper hand Every major western semi partner currently projecting talent shortage of 100,000s in 5-10+ year time frame. VS PRC at ~500k/700k of domestic IC talent they think they need for indigenous industry according to 2018 white paper (IIRC same year they started prioritizing talent production to first-level discipline), and now academic system is generating ~30k IC talent per year. TLDR is everyone maybe making improvements, but PRC uniquely positioned to have requisit talent to catchup/exceed, and have advantage of coordinating entire semi industrial base in single jurisdiction. Semi talent development is still one area where west is actively dropping ball, and unless TSMC Arizona sort out their worker/cultural drama, might continue to if west can't elevate semi to desirable career.

refurb 3y ago

What makes you think the West will allow Chinese made chips into their countries?