4 ms·
There are export controls on ASML and Canon lithography machines. No chance of Huawei beating the likes of Nvidia, Intel, Apple in the next few decades at leas
by threeseed 2y ago
There are export controls on ASML and Canon lithography machines.
No chance of Huawei beating the likes of Nvidia, Intel, Apple in the next few decades at least.
- ein0p 2y agoThey are already at 7nm (low yield, but you gotta start somewhere), and they plan to invest $140B into this. I wouldn’t be so sure about them “not beating Intel” or other such prognostications. 140B _in China_ buys a lot more “trying” than it does in the West.
- threeseed 2y agoMeanwhile TSMC has 2nm at Apple scale and trialling Nvidia's new computational lithography. So it's not like the West is sitting around doing nothing.
- rjzzleep 2y agoIntel has bought all the high NA EUV ASML produces until the first quarter 2025 by the way. TSMC is not the west, TSMC is TSMC. Also China has started investing heavily in domestic AI chips. Huawei's Ascend is roughly comparable to the A100 I think, but you shouldn't forget that this has caused a flurry of GPU as a service company to pop up outside of China that serve GPU compute to Chinese customers. The best this kind of legislation does is make it a bit more expensive for China to access GPU compute. It's worth remembering that a lot of tech was banned from Iran, but that never stopped Iranians from getting any of those components. It just made them twice as expensive. https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20231211-11957.html https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20231211-11957.h...
- ein0p 2y agoTSMC is not the “West”. It could go away within a week once the festivities begin in earnest.
- kelnos 2y agoNode size is only one piece of the puzzle, and not a sufficient one to beat competitors.
- scq 2y agoThey are still using DUV for that. It will likely take at least a decade to develop EUV independently, which is needed for smaller process nodes.
- fullspectrumdev 2y agoSignificantly less time if they simply “acquire” the information needed via industrial espionage :)
- ein0p 2y agoNot with $140B in a country where literally everything is cheaper, and not when they know it can be done (and likely also have at least half the technical documentation). It won’t take a “decade”.
- Alpha3031 2y agoApparently they're working on a DUV 3nm process, which is a little insane if you think about it. Would certainly be interesting to see it working, if it does work.
- justinclift 2y agoEUV is the way that won from the R&D by the current leaders. It might not be the only way to get things to work, though clearly I have no real idea. :)
- wordofx 2y agoEveryone keeps beating this 7nm drum but ignored the fact it’s 7nm performing the equiv of a cpu from like 7-10 years ago…
- ein0p 2y agoCPUs were already pretty good 7 years ago though. I still run some of them.
- verdverm 2y agoIf we follow Moore's Law, that is 3.5 doublings, wish is a little more than 11x difference. Means you need at least 10x the amount of hardware to get the same amount of work done
- ein0p 2y agoThat doesn’t seem to hold actually. My NAS/VM host runs 14nm Skylake and I see zero reason to upgrade. I don’t care that the die size is larger - I’m never going to see it. Power consumption is also pretty reasonable.
- justinclift 2y ago> If we follow Moore's Law ... At least cpu's haven't been adhering to Moore's Law for a few years now.
- DeathArrow 2y agoTell that to Intel.
- cm2187 2y agoThey also deal with a lot less bureaucracy and inefficient planning process (with decade long litigations) than in the west, at least if they have gvt backing. That being said foundries are a hard business, there is a reason there has been so much concentration and companies throwing the towel.
- beAbU 2y agoHistory has proven over and over again that with the right political will anything is possible. The US put people on the moon in the 60s because the government willed it. They are unable to do so now, because the political will for it is not there any more. If their government wills an independent and competitive semiconductor industry, then it will happen sooner than we think. Hell, China will develop commercially viable fusion power if their government wills it.