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For anyone who doesn't follow rocket launches: Launch scrubs happen /constantly/. It happens to everyone, and a single scrub is not a sign of problems with a p

For anyone who doesn't follow rocket launches: Launch scrubs happen /constantly/. It happens to everyone, and a single scrub is not a sign of problems with a program. If it takes multiple scrubs with months of delays before it finally launches, then it'll be another thing to add on to Starliner's list of difficulties fulfilling their contract with NASA. However a scrub or two is business as usual.

CryptoBanker 2y ago
Did you read the article? It wasn’t a weather scrub. It was a faulty valve that ULA usually fixes by doing the hardware equivalent of turning it off and turning it back on again.
- pc86 2y ago
  > Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that". [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- Laremere 2y ago
  I did. I didn't say it was a weather scrub.
richardwhiuk 2y ago
Weather scrubs are common, and not relevant to the success of a program. GSE (Ground Servicing Equipment) are fairly common and fairly benign. Valves on the rocket? Much, much more rare, and usually indicate some form of issue.
- Diederich 2y ago
  From what was said at the scrub conference, with additional context, it was scrubbed only because of more strict rules regarding it being a manned mission. Normally they would have just recycled a valve and moved ahead with the launch. Apparently the rick here is extremely minimal.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- adolph 2y ago
  > Valves on the rocket? Much, much more rare, and usually indicate some form of issue. And to be fair to the starcrossed Starliner, the valve "pressure regulation valve on the liquid oxygen tank of the Atlas 54 rocket‘s Centaur upper stage." https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/05/07/starliner-launch-scrubbed-by-trouble-with-a-valve-in-the-atlas-5s-centaur-upper-stage/ https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/05/07/starliner-launch-scrub...
dylan604 2y ago
> If it takes multiple scrubs with months of delays before it finally launches For anyone who doesn't follow rocket launches, this comment perfectly describes Boeing's Starliner program. Every. Single. Time. it tries to launch there is a non-weather related scrub. Valve issues have been a consistent issue for the capsule, and now it's the booster.
adolph 2y ago
Anybody remember "scrubtober" in 2020? a troubled first few days of October, nicknamed “Scrubtober”, in light of scrubbed launch attempts which have affected SpaceX, Northrop Grumman Corp. and United Launch Alliance (ULA). https://www.americaspace.com/2020/10/06/spacex-ends-scrubtober-for-space-coast-with-sunrise-starlink-13-launch/ https://www.americaspace.com/2020/10/06/spacex-ends-scrubtob...
numpad0 2y ago
As an occasional launch livestream watcher since F9 still had rectangular engine mount, I'd say the real probability of a launch is about 25% for ANY vehicle except for Soyuz from Baikonur and Falcon 9. Everything else could scrub with 24h+ delays at easily 75% chance. Could be wayward boats and planes, Hydrogen leaks, onboard self diagnostic failure, false hydrogen leak alarms, unstable wireless telemetry connection, upper atmospheric winds and all kinds of weather, frozen plumbings, computers passing out, automatic cutoff due to anomalous vibration at T-1s, anything. With Soyuz scrubs and failure probabilities finally creeping up, the only vehicle in the world that likely lift off on first try is Falcon 9. Anything else could pause at T-45s and recycle from T-2 hours for couple times, then go all the way to T-0s, and then delay by a week. That's just how most of these things work.

CryptoBanker 2y ago

Did you read the article? It wasn’t a weather scrub. It was a faulty valve that ULA usually fixes by doing the hardware equivalent of turning it off and turning it back on again.

pc86 2y ago
> Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that". [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Laremere 2y ago
I did. I didn't say it was a weather scrub.

richardwhiuk 2y ago

Weather scrubs are common, and not relevant to the success of a program. GSE (Ground Servicing Equipment) are fairly common and fairly benign. Valves on the rocket? Much, much more rare, and usually indicate some form of issue.

Diederich 2y ago
From what was said at the scrub conference, with additional context, it was scrubbed only because of more strict rules regarding it being a manned mission. Normally they would have just recycled a valve and moved ahead with the launch. Apparently the rick here is extremely minimal.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
adolph 2y ago
> Valves on the rocket? Much, much more rare, and usually indicate some form of issue. And to be fair to the starcrossed Starliner, the valve "pressure regulation valve on the liquid oxygen tank of the Atlas 54 rocket‘s Centaur upper stage." https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/05/07/starliner-launch-scrubbed-by-trouble-with-a-valve-in-the-atlas-5s-centaur-upper-stage/ https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/05/07/starliner-launch-scrub...

dylan604 2y ago

> If it takes multiple scrubs with months of delays before it finally launches For anyone who doesn't follow rocket launches, this comment perfectly describes Boeing's Starliner program. Every. Single. Time. it tries to launch there is a non-weather related scrub. Valve issues have been a consistent issue for the capsule, and now it's the booster.

adolph 2y ago

Anybody remember "scrubtober" in 2020? a troubled first few days of October, nicknamed “Scrubtober”, in light of scrubbed launch attempts which have affected SpaceX, Northrop Grumman Corp. and United Launch Alliance (ULA). https://www.americaspace.com/2020/10/06/spacex-ends-scrubtober-for-space-coast-with-sunrise-starlink-13-launch/ https://www.americaspace.com/2020/10/06/spacex-ends-scrubtob...

numpad0 2y ago

As an occasional launch livestream watcher since F9 still had rectangular engine mount, I'd say the real probability of a launch is about 25% for ANY vehicle except for Soyuz from Baikonur and Falcon 9. Everything else could scrub with 24h+ delays at easily 75% chance. Could be wayward boats and planes, Hydrogen leaks, onboard self diagnostic failure, false hydrogen leak alarms, unstable wireless telemetry connection, upper atmospheric winds and all kinds of weather, frozen plumbings, computers passing out, automatic cutoff due to anomalous vibration at T-1s, anything. With Soyuz scrubs and failure probabilities finally creeping up, the only vehicle in the world that likely lift off on first try is Falcon 9. Anything else could pause at T-45s and recycle from T-2 hours for couple times, then go all the way to T-0s, and then delay by a week. That's just how most of these things work.