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MAD makes sense if you assume the participants are rational and have accurate information. That's probably true on average in the long-run. But what bothers me

MAD makes sense if you assume the participants are rational and have accurate information. That's probably true on average in the long-run. But what bothers me is that it only takes one accident or miscalculation or crazy president to bring about the end of the world. And we've certainly had our fair share of close calls with bad sensor readings or training tapes being put into a live operational setting.

jrockway 2y ago
Yeah, I think MAD and "launch on warning" are distinct concepts. If we survive the first strike, we can rationally plan our second strike. So training tapes being played on the live system won't cause us to accidentally make a first strike; we can still assure destruction after taking a first strike. (That's why there's the nuclear triad.) I think that "launch on warning" was an official policy at some point. I am not sure if it is anymore. I don't think it's a good one and it's not necessary to deter a first strike. The missiles are underground and at unknown locations in the ocean for that reason. As for crazy presidents, yup, that is a legitimate concern. I am not sure why we put commanding the armed forces into the hands of one person. (The advantage is that one person can decisively retaliate after a surprise strike on Washington. The disadvantage is that a drunk Twitter war can escalate to ending the world. Sigh!) As for irrational actors, that's another big problem. What does North Korea lose if they nuke the US? Not much; they don't have a huge economy as it is. It's a nice "fuck you" if the reigning dictator sees that the end of their regime is inevitable. MAD doesn't help with that at all. It's all actually pretty scary. We like to think that the cold war is over, but really, not all the countries of the world are at peace right now, so everything could be over in the blink of the eye and you won't see it coming. I guess keep all that in mind as you plan your day!
- Log_out_ 2y ago
  Good argument for a defection retirement program to offer by the west. We bring your family to safety and grant your retirement in style, so you do not get MAD. Let's negotiate with terrorism quitters.
  - 1992spacemovie 2y ago
    We already negotiate with terrorist via AGM-114s. Why would we want to do what you suggest?

jrockway 2y ago

Yeah, I think MAD and "launch on warning" are distinct concepts. If we survive the first strike, we can rationally plan our second strike. So training tapes being played on the live system won't cause us to accidentally make a first strike; we can still assure destruction after taking a first strike. (That's why there's the nuclear triad.) I think that "launch on warning" was an official policy at some point. I am not sure if it is anymore. I don't think it's a good one and it's not necessary to deter a first strike. The missiles are underground and at unknown locations in the ocean for that reason. As for crazy presidents, yup, that is a legitimate concern. I am not sure why we put commanding the armed forces into the hands of one person. (The advantage is that one person can decisively retaliate after a surprise strike on Washington. The disadvantage is that a drunk Twitter war can escalate to ending the world. Sigh!) As for irrational actors, that's another big problem. What does North Korea lose if they nuke the US? Not much; they don't have a huge economy as it is. It's a nice "fuck you" if the reigning dictator sees that the end of their regime is inevitable. MAD doesn't help with that at all. It's all actually pretty scary. We like to think that the cold war is over, but really, not all the countries of the world are at peace right now, so everything could be over in the blink of the eye and you won't see it coming. I guess keep all that in mind as you plan your day!

Log_out_ 2y ago
Good argument for a defection retirement program to offer by the west. We bring your family to safety and grant your retirement in style, so you do not get MAD. Let's negotiate with terrorism quitters.
- 1992spacemovie 2y ago
  We already negotiate with terrorist via AGM-114s. Why would we want to do what you suggest?