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Yeah, significant portion of the developed world is shrinking not growing. Regardless, housing demand is more directly influenced (and influences) net househol

by JackFr 2y ago

Yeah, significant portion of the developed world is shrinking not growing. Regardless, housing demand is more directly influenced (and influences) net household formation, and it is very regional and dependent on regional economies. There are rust belt communities in the US which suffered decades of net negative household formation even as the US population ticked up. Detroit and Baltimore had peak populations in 1950. While many would consider portions of them blighted and undesirable, that was more the result of and less the cause of the population decline.

betaby 2y ago
> Yeah, significant portion of the developed world is shrinking not growing. That's absolutely not true. Otherwise cite reputable statistic sources. I'm looking at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/population-growth-rate/country-comparison/ https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/population-grow...
- JackFr 2y ago
  While it's true that Japan and Italy are the only two major developed countries suffering actual decline, basically all of the big wealthy countries are experiencing fertility below replacement. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... Fertility, total births per woman 2021 Australia 1.7 EU 1.5 UK 1.6 Japan 1.3 Korea 0.8 US 1.7 Replacement fertility is estimated at 2.1. Countries with below replacement fertility are growing based on immigration.
  - betaby 2y ago
    You are shifting goals, from the population growth to the fertility rate. Indeed some countries more that others are growing because of the migration and not fertility. Also that's not a new phenomena at all. All that doesn't negate the fact of the population growth. As a consequence of that growth we need more housing, and that's not happening in a needed rate.

by JackFr 2y ago

betaby 2y ago

> Yeah, significant portion of the developed world is shrinking not growing. That's absolutely not true. Otherwise cite reputable statistic sources. I'm looking at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/population-growth-rate/country-comparison/ https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/population-grow...

JackFr 2y ago
While it's true that Japan and Italy are the only two major developed countries suffering actual decline, basically all of the big wealthy countries are experiencing fertility below replacement. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... Fertility, total births per woman 2021 Australia 1.7 EU 1.5 UK 1.6 Japan 1.3 Korea 0.8 US 1.7 Replacement fertility is estimated at 2.1. Countries with below replacement fertility are growing based on immigration.
- betaby 2y ago
  You are shifting goals, from the population growth to the fertility rate. Indeed some countries more that others are growing because of the migration and not fertility. Also that's not a new phenomena at all. All that doesn't negate the fact of the population growth. As a consequence of that growth we need more housing, and that's not happening in a needed rate.