4 ms·

The owners/economy has demanded for things to become more efficient then last year every year for decades now. If no massive technological breakthrough happens

by doikor 2y ago

The owners/economy has demanded for things to become more efficient then last year every year for decades now. If no massive technological breakthrough happens at some point the operation is as efficient as it can be while producing safe products but still you have to become more efficient for next quarterly/yearly results to keep the shareholders happy (if you can't find new clients to expand to). It is at that point that you start cutting corners and end up in situations like this. This happens in every field but obviously in most fields the cost of these failures is not big enough to really matter but when you apply it to aviation you get planes with hundreds of people crashing into the ocean.

gruez 2y ago
>This happens in every field but obviously in most fields the cost of these failures is not big enough to really matter but when you apply it to aviation you get planes with hundreds of people crashing into the ocean. Is that so bad? According to the IIHS there were 43k automotive deaths in the US in 2021. Meanwhile the last passenger death in a scheduled commercial flight[1] in the US was 4 years ago. In the past decade there has only been 2 deaths. [1] this excludes flights like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Mutiny_Bay_DHC-3_Otter_crash https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Mutiny_Bay_DHC-3_Otter_cr..., because they're essentially flying general aviation planes which are far less reliable than airliners that people typically associate with air travel. If you include them the number goes up to 27.
- 0xAFFFF 2y ago
  It's not so bad yet because the aviation industry comes from a place of extremely high safety standards, but it could get worse pretty fast.
- rapatel0 2y ago
  Airline ------------ Total number of global flights per year: ~38.9 Million Total deaths over the last decade (3,562) -> 21.2 deaths per million trips Cars ------------ Total number of driving trips per year US: 227 Billion (using your number of 43K deaths per year) -> 1.9 deaths / million trips Wow, I'm surprised but actually airline travel is less safe then driving. Links: - https://www.statista.com/statistics/564769/airline-industry-number-of-flights/#:~:text=Global%20air%20traffic%20%2D%20number%20of%20flights%202004%2D2024&text=The%20number%20of%20flights%20performed,to%2016.9%20million%20in%202020 https://www.statista.com/statistics/564769/airline-industry-.... - https://www.statista.com/statistics/263443/worldwide-air-traffic-fatalities/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/263443/worldwide-air-tra...
  - gbear605 2y ago
    Deaths per trip is a bad comparison. As you can see from those numbers, Americans take about 1000 car trips per year and many fewer plane trips (hard to get exact numbers based on that since it’s global and planes can have dozens-hundreds of people).
  - avar 2y ago
    It makes no sense to look at number of flights for a comparison. You need to look at passenger miles.
    - hunter2_ 2y ago
      You need to look at hours invested. If I'm planning to go away for a week, I'm choosing whether to sit in a car for 12 hours or airports+airplanes for 12 hours -- these are the equivalent options for how to spend my time away from home, so between these, how much safer is one over the other? Said another way, compare "trips by plane" against "a set of car trips whose average duration matches that of trips by plane."
      - gruez 2y ago
        >[...] these are the equivalent options for how to spend my time away from home No they're not. If you're in San Fransisco for instance, a 12 hour drive maybe gets you to LA, Vegas, and maybe salt lake city. It can't even get you to Seattle or Phoenix. Meanwhile even if you factor in getting to the airport 3 hours before departure, 1 hour to get to the airport, and 1 hour to get to your final destination, that leaves you with 7 hours of flight time. That's enough for a direct flight anywhere in the lower 48 states, and as well as many cities in Canada and Mexico.
        hunter2_ 2y ago
        If I have a certain amount of time to spend and want a reasonable ratio of travel time to time-at-destination, some ratio that I prefer regardless of mode of travel, those are indeed the options I can choose from (e.g., driving to the next state or flying across the country). There will be many factors leading to a decision of which option to select, and if I want travel safety to be a factor, then the safety stats need to be presented as I'm describing.
- notfromhere 2y ago
  That’s a sentence you can say if you don’t find yourself or a loved one on that plane.
LargeWu 2y ago
Not even more efficient. Just cheaper. Efficiency implies there's no drop in quality.
constantcrying 2y ago
This would mean that failures should be spread evenly over an industry. Airbus clearly does not have the problems Boeing has. I also don't think you understand the current airline industry. Both Boeing and Airbus desperately want to grow, they have orders lined up for decades and just need factories and people. The issue is not a stagnant industry looking for cost-cutting it is a very in demand industry desperate to fill orders.
- p_l 2y ago
  The shareholders care about stock price and dividends, and those aren't necessarily linked to company actually growing. Ultimately, for a lot of publicly held companies, quite often the "boss making the decision" is an excel sheet on some analysts desk that will result in a specific pressure being applied on company.

by doikor 2y ago

gruez 2y ago

>This happens in every field but obviously in most fields the cost of these failures is not big enough to really matter but when you apply it to aviation you get planes with hundreds of people crashing into the ocean. Is that so bad? According to the IIHS there were 43k automotive deaths in the US in 2021. Meanwhile the last passenger death in a scheduled commercial flight[1] in the US was 4 years ago. In the past decade there has only been 2 deaths. [1] this excludes flights like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Mutiny_Bay_DHC-3_Otter_crash https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Mutiny_Bay_DHC-3_Otter_cr..., because they're essentially flying general aviation planes which are far less reliable than airliners that people typically associate with air travel. If you include them the number goes up to 27.

0xAFFFF 2y ago
It's not so bad yet because the aviation industry comes from a place of extremely high safety standards, but it could get worse pretty fast.
rapatel0 2y ago
Airline ------------ Total number of global flights per year: ~38.9 Million Total deaths over the last decade (3,562) -> 21.2 deaths per million trips Cars ------------ Total number of driving trips per year US: 227 Billion (using your number of 43K deaths per year) -> 1.9 deaths / million trips Wow, I'm surprised but actually airline travel is less safe then driving. Links: - https://www.statista.com/statistics/564769/airline-industry-number-of-flights/#:~:text=Global%20air%20traffic%20%2D%20number%20of%20flights%202004%2D2024&text=The%20number%20of%20flights%20performed,to%2016.9%20million%20in%202020 https://www.statista.com/statistics/564769/airline-industry-.... - https://www.statista.com/statistics/263443/worldwide-air-traffic-fatalities/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/263443/worldwide-air-tra...
- gbear605 2y ago
  Deaths per trip is a bad comparison. As you can see from those numbers, Americans take about 1000 car trips per year and many fewer plane trips (hard to get exact numbers based on that since it’s global and planes can have dozens-hundreds of people).
- avar 2y ago
  It makes no sense to look at number of flights for a comparison. You need to look at passenger miles.
  - hunter2_ 2y ago
    You need to look at hours invested. If I'm planning to go away for a week, I'm choosing whether to sit in a car for 12 hours or airports+airplanes for 12 hours -- these are the equivalent options for how to spend my time away from home, so between these, how much safer is one over the other? Said another way, compare "trips by plane" against "a set of car trips whose average duration matches that of trips by plane."
    - gruez 2y ago
      >[...] these are the equivalent options for how to spend my time away from home No they're not. If you're in San Fransisco for instance, a 12 hour drive maybe gets you to LA, Vegas, and maybe salt lake city. It can't even get you to Seattle or Phoenix. Meanwhile even if you factor in getting to the airport 3 hours before departure, 1 hour to get to the airport, and 1 hour to get to your final destination, that leaves you with 7 hours of flight time. That's enough for a direct flight anywhere in the lower 48 states, and as well as many cities in Canada and Mexico.
      - hunter2_ 2y ago
        If I have a certain amount of time to spend and want a reasonable ratio of travel time to time-at-destination, some ratio that I prefer regardless of mode of travel, those are indeed the options I can choose from (e.g., driving to the next state or flying across the country). There will be many factors leading to a decision of which option to select, and if I want travel safety to be a factor, then the safety stats need to be presented as I'm describing.
notfromhere 2y ago
That’s a sentence you can say if you don’t find yourself or a loved one on that plane.

LargeWu 2y ago

Not even more efficient. Just cheaper. Efficiency implies there's no drop in quality.

constantcrying 2y ago

This would mean that failures should be spread evenly over an industry. Airbus clearly does not have the problems Boeing has. I also don't think you understand the current airline industry. Both Boeing and Airbus desperately want to grow, they have orders lined up for decades and just need factories and people. The issue is not a stagnant industry looking for cost-cutting it is a very in demand industry desperate to fill orders.

p_l 2y ago
The shareholders care about stock price and dividends, and those aren't necessarily linked to company actually growing. Ultimately, for a lot of publicly held companies, quite often the "boss making the decision" is an excel sheet on some analysts desk that will result in a specific pressure being applied on company.