I think if one looks at the available data dispassionately - it is roughly 50-50 but Trump has the edge (although it has shrunk in recent weeks). And yes, there

I think if one looks at the available data dispassionately - it is roughly 50-50 but Trump has the edge (although it has shrunk in recent weeks). And yes, there is still 6 months to go, and a lot could change between now and then. On the other hand, in a normal election, 6 months out, most voters don’t really know at least one, possibly both, of the candidates, and only start paying attention to them as Election Day draws nearer, which creates a lot of potential for movement in the polls as that happens. This time around, unusually, most people are already familiar with both candidates, which suggests the polls 6 months out may be more accurate than they normally are