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What you want is irrelevant; what's important is who wins the White House, and that's looking very, very much like Trump right now. Face it: the non-Trump vote

What you want is irrelevant; what's important is who wins the White House, and that's looking very, very much like Trump right now. Face it: the non-Trump voters are not at all united, and a large fraction of them genuinely hate Biden. The last time the Democratic Party tried running a very unpopular candidate, the US elected Trump. Why do you think this won't happen again? It's not just 2016 either: it's a long-standing pattern with the DNC.

nozzlegear 3y ago
> What you want is irrelevant I thought the implication was obvious, but I vote for the person who most aligns with what I want. So what I want is not irrelevant, in fact. > what's important is who wins the White House, and that's looking very, very much like Trump right now I can tell from your comment that you’re not new to US elections, so it’s bizarre to me that you’re putting any kind of faith in polling data this far out. If polls could accurately predict who would be president based on approval ratings six months before an election, Trump would’ve won in 2020, and Republicans would’ve had their red waves in 2018 and 2022. The only polling that actually matters anymore is what’s happening on Election Day. The rest is all fodder for pundits to hem and haw at. > Face it: the non-Trump voters are not at all united, and a large fraction of them genuinely hate Biden. This has no bearing on US elections. A democrat voter isn’t going to vote for Trump because they don’t like Biden. They’re going to vote for Biden and, at worst, write some pithy line on Facebook about how they wish they had better choices.
- shiroiushi 3y ago
  >The only polling that actually matters anymore is what’s happening on Election Day. Yes, this is true: according to the pollsters, Trump had zero chance of winning in 2016. They were even saying this while the votes were being counted. I'm not looking at polls, however, I'm just looking at popularity that I see in general. Hillary was not well-liked at all, and she didn't even have the Gaza problem that Biden has now. People just didn't like her much; she had no charisma. There weren't any big conflicts going on, there were no huge protests at college campuses, there wasn't massive inflation squeezing the working classes like now, etc. >This has no bearing on US elections. It totally does. >A democrat voter isn’t going to vote for Trump because they don’t like Biden. No, they're going to stay at home, or vote for the Greens, exactly like they did in 2016. > They’re going to vote for Biden History doesn't show this at all.
  - nozzlegear 3y ago
    I just can’t argue with this. You’re using Hillary as your example for why Biden won’t be elected, when Biden has already been elected and is sitting in the White House right now. People didn’t like him in 2020 either, they clutched their pearls about how the DNC asserted control and forced Biden on us when we could’ve had Sanders, if only it weren’t for those darn black folks in South Carolina. But elections aren’t about who you like anymore, they’re about who you dislike and what that person you dislike is going to do.
    - shiroiushi 3y ago
      >You’re using Hillary as your example for why Biden won’t be elected, when Biden has already been elected and is sitting in the White House right now. That's true, but the situation has changed. After 4 years of Trump and almost a year of him bungling the Covid response and George Floyd protests, lots of voters wanted a change, and people who had previously sat out the 2016 election or voted Other showed up this time to vote for Biden, who seemed like a boring but competent candidate. (Don't forget, however, Trump got more popular votes in 2020 than he did in 2016; it was simply outweighed by the even greater increase on the Dem side.) Now, it's 4 years later; Covid is over, but the economy is suffering from high inflation (which is fine for rich people but hurting the lower/middle classes), the housing situation is worse than ever, and now the progressives/GenZ are royally pissed about Biden's handling of the Gaza situation. Historically, one thing that's been pretty constant with US Pres elections is that people vote for change when they're mad about the economy (and of course blame it on the current Pres). >But elections aren’t about who you like anymore, they’re about who you dislike and what that person you dislike is going to do. This has pretty much always been the case. But as the Dems have failed to learn over and over, you still need to nominate someone that has some degree of charisma and doesn't have a lot of baggage. (And it's unfair too: the Republican candidates don't seem to have such a high bar to meet here, but it is what it is.) I could be wrong of course, but I can easily see enough voters staying home to allow Trump to win.
    - skissane 3y ago
      > But elections aren’t about who you like anymore, they’re about who you dislike and what that person you dislike is going to do. If the GOP had picked someone a bit more mainstream and less divisive than Trump, they’d probably be winning against Biden easily. Likewise, if Biden had decided against a second term, some other Democrat could easily have been well ahead of Trump right now. A big reason why the election is about “who you dislike”, is both parties decided to run with what is arguably close to the worst option out of their realistic choices. If either had chosen differently, it would likely have been a very different election.
- skissane 3y ago
  I think if one looks at the available data dispassionately - it is roughly 50-50 but Trump has the edge (although it has shrunk in recent weeks). And yes, there is still 6 months to go, and a lot could change between now and then. On the other hand, in a normal election, 6 months out, most voters don’t really know at least one, possibly both, of the candidates, and only start paying attention to them as Election Day draws nearer, which creates a lot of potential for movement in the polls as that happens. This time around, unusually, most people are already familiar with both candidates, which suggests the polls 6 months out may be more accurate than they normally are
  - nozzlegear 3y ago
    I’d personally agree with your assessment, things feel pretty 50-50 to me as well with a slight edge toward Trump. This election will definitely be unusual, but I expect it will come down to the wire on Election Day again. The wild card this year is abortion, which drives huge turnout and makes people hold their noses to vote on both sides.

nozzlegear 3y ago

> What you want is irrelevant I thought the implication was obvious, but I vote for the person who most aligns with what I want. So what I want is not irrelevant, in fact. > what's important is who wins the White House, and that's looking very, very much like Trump right now I can tell from your comment that you’re not new to US elections, so it’s bizarre to me that you’re putting any kind of faith in polling data this far out. If polls could accurately predict who would be president based on approval ratings six months before an election, Trump would’ve won in 2020, and Republicans would’ve had their red waves in 2018 and 2022. The only polling that actually matters anymore is what’s happening on Election Day. The rest is all fodder for pundits to hem and haw at. > Face it: the non-Trump voters are not at all united, and a large fraction of them genuinely hate Biden. This has no bearing on US elections. A democrat voter isn’t going to vote for Trump because they don’t like Biden. They’re going to vote for Biden and, at worst, write some pithy line on Facebook about how they wish they had better choices.

shiroiushi 3y ago
>The only polling that actually matters anymore is what’s happening on Election Day. Yes, this is true: according to the pollsters, Trump had zero chance of winning in 2016. They were even saying this while the votes were being counted. I'm not looking at polls, however, I'm just looking at popularity that I see in general. Hillary was not well-liked at all, and she didn't even have the Gaza problem that Biden has now. People just didn't like her much; she had no charisma. There weren't any big conflicts going on, there were no huge protests at college campuses, there wasn't massive inflation squeezing the working classes like now, etc. >This has no bearing on US elections. It totally does. >A democrat voter isn’t going to vote for Trump because they don’t like Biden. No, they're going to stay at home, or vote for the Greens, exactly like they did in 2016. > They’re going to vote for Biden History doesn't show this at all.
- nozzlegear 3y ago
  I just can’t argue with this. You’re using Hillary as your example for why Biden won’t be elected, when Biden has already been elected and is sitting in the White House right now. People didn’t like him in 2020 either, they clutched their pearls about how the DNC asserted control and forced Biden on us when we could’ve had Sanders, if only it weren’t for those darn black folks in South Carolina. But elections aren’t about who you like anymore, they’re about who you dislike and what that person you dislike is going to do.
  - shiroiushi 3y ago
    >You’re using Hillary as your example for why Biden won’t be elected, when Biden has already been elected and is sitting in the White House right now. That's true, but the situation has changed. After 4 years of Trump and almost a year of him bungling the Covid response and George Floyd protests, lots of voters wanted a change, and people who had previously sat out the 2016 election or voted Other showed up this time to vote for Biden, who seemed like a boring but competent candidate. (Don't forget, however, Trump got more popular votes in 2020 than he did in 2016; it was simply outweighed by the even greater increase on the Dem side.) Now, it's 4 years later; Covid is over, but the economy is suffering from high inflation (which is fine for rich people but hurting the lower/middle classes), the housing situation is worse than ever, and now the progressives/GenZ are royally pissed about Biden's handling of the Gaza situation. Historically, one thing that's been pretty constant with US Pres elections is that people vote for change when they're mad about the economy (and of course blame it on the current Pres). >But elections aren’t about who you like anymore, they’re about who you dislike and what that person you dislike is going to do. This has pretty much always been the case. But as the Dems have failed to learn over and over, you still need to nominate someone that has some degree of charisma and doesn't have a lot of baggage. (And it's unfair too: the Republican candidates don't seem to have such a high bar to meet here, but it is what it is.) I could be wrong of course, but I can easily see enough voters staying home to allow Trump to win.
  - skissane 3y ago
    > But elections aren’t about who you like anymore, they’re about who you dislike and what that person you dislike is going to do. If the GOP had picked someone a bit more mainstream and less divisive than Trump, they’d probably be winning against Biden easily. Likewise, if Biden had decided against a second term, some other Democrat could easily have been well ahead of Trump right now. A big reason why the election is about “who you dislike”, is both parties decided to run with what is arguably close to the worst option out of their realistic choices. If either had chosen differently, it would likely have been a very different election.
skissane 3y ago
I think if one looks at the available data dispassionately - it is roughly 50-50 but Trump has the edge (although it has shrunk in recent weeks). And yes, there is still 6 months to go, and a lot could change between now and then. On the other hand, in a normal election, 6 months out, most voters don’t really know at least one, possibly both, of the candidates, and only start paying attention to them as Election Day draws nearer, which creates a lot of potential for movement in the polls as that happens. This time around, unusually, most people are already familiar with both candidates, which suggests the polls 6 months out may be more accurate than they normally are
- nozzlegear 3y ago
  I’d personally agree with your assessment, things feel pretty 50-50 to me as well with a slight edge toward Trump. This election will definitely be unusual, but I expect it will come down to the wire on Election Day again. The wild card this year is abortion, which drives huge turnout and makes people hold their noses to vote on both sides.