It seems to be that a large part of the AWS business model is the revenue received as a fledgling startup tries to grow (and ideally succeeds) into a large comp

It seems to be that a large part of the AWS business model is the revenue received as a fledgling startup tries to grow (and ideally succeeds) into a large company. As a small tech startup, an easy button for compute needs is perfectly sensible, as it allows focusing on the product. If the startup grows switching becomes more expensive, so AWS gets its money as long as the amounts are not seen as the main cost driver. That stage, I think (with no hard data), is the AWS sweetspot. The company is paying a lot for AWS, but does not yet want to do a full analysis, hire dedicated cloud cost optimization staff and deal with friction of switching. If the startup grows stable and profitable it will likely do a proper cost analysis and make AWS bills saner, maybe with a mix of on-prem, AWS and non-AWS cloud services. But that requires a stable period, both in time and in functionality, which is not something that an unprofitable startup has. I think with the end of ZIRP and tighter access to VC funds the number of startups that can afford losing a lot of money to go through an explosive growth period will shrink, and so will the AWS profits.