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> debt for housing, which is a depreciating asset in normal times (housing wears out, land may become more expensive) is not a great idea, but it has been norma

> debt for housing, which is a depreciating asset in normal times (housing wears out, land may become more expensive) is not a great idea, but it has been normalized and when you have negative real rates & inflationary policies, as we had for over a decade, it can make a lot of sense Has there been a 20 year stretch of time in the US in which housing is broadly a depreciating asset? Seems that land is definitely, and housing for the most part, an appreciating asset over time due to scarcity.

aworks 2y ago
I'm not answering your direct question but for reasons, I'm interested in Indiana farm land in the 1920s and 1930s. From a peak in 1920, price per acre was down 2/3rds and didn't fully recover until 1948. The Great Depression started early for farmers... https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/resource/2023/08/the-index-of-indiana-farm-real-estate/ https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/resource/2023/08/the...
- pixl97 2y ago
  Not sure if farmland to housing land is a 1:1 comparison in many places. Where you can dig well (and hopefully get safe water) and use septic it may be as you can get power almost anywhere, but some places require utilities which increases prices significantly
recursivedoubts 2y ago
housing is, by definition, a depreciating asset: it wears out you are asking if real estate prices have fallen over a 20 year period in the US and the answer is not in the modern inflationary era: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QUSR628BIS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QUSR628BIS but that mixes land & housing prices together of course prices have fallen over 10 year periods (sometimes dramatically) however, and the average length of ownership is 8 years, so timing can make a huge difference in outcomes of home ownership, particularly with the leverage involved.
roland35 2y ago
Depends where you live! There are plenty of cities that have gone downhill. I could easily see some big sun belt cities getting too hot in 2044..

aworks 2y ago

I'm not answering your direct question but for reasons, I'm interested in Indiana farm land in the 1920s and 1930s. From a peak in 1920, price per acre was down 2/3rds and didn't fully recover until 1948. The Great Depression started early for farmers... https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/resource/2023/08/the-index-of-indiana-farm-real-estate/ https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/resource/2023/08/the...

pixl97 2y ago
Not sure if farmland to housing land is a 1:1 comparison in many places. Where you can dig well (and hopefully get safe water) and use septic it may be as you can get power almost anywhere, but some places require utilities which increases prices significantly

recursivedoubts 2y ago

housing is, by definition, a depreciating asset: it wears out you are asking if real estate prices have fallen over a 20 year period in the US and the answer is not in the modern inflationary era: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QUSR628BIS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QUSR628BIS but that mixes land & housing prices together of course prices have fallen over 10 year periods (sometimes dramatically) however, and the average length of ownership is 8 years, so timing can make a huge difference in outcomes of home ownership, particularly with the leverage involved.

roland35 2y ago

Depends where you live! There are plenty of cities that have gone downhill. I could easily see some big sun belt cities getting too hot in 2044..