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Whether it's geopolitics, technology, or social changes, it is next to impossible to predict further than 10-20 years down the road with any kind of accuracy.
by rickyconnolly 14y ago
Whether it's geopolitics, technology, or social changes, it is next to impossible to predict further than 10-20 years down the road with any kind of accuracy.
Could people living at the height of the space race realistically predict the collapse of American space exploration? Could they see coming the subsequent rise of private space ventures?
- geori 14y agoWe'll just have to wait until pschyohistory is invented.
- philwelch 14y ago(spoiler alert) Not even psychohistory worked in the long run. It fundamentally could not predict the Mule.
- cliffbean 14y agoA charitable way to read this site is to use it as a way of talking about current trends. For example, they say "Male and female salaries are reaching parity" in 2067. Who knows what'll happen, but it's a novel way of talking about just how far behind female salaries are and at what rate they're changing today. For another, projecting Moore's law out to 2083 is silly, but it is interesting to remember how transistors (and other computer parts) have been shrinking exponentially through the present.