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It is very good to finally see the newspace ethos being distributed in the media. The loose newspace community has been saying these things for decades. To sum
by Gravityloss 14y ago
It is very good to finally see the newspace ethos being distributed in the media. The loose newspace community has been saying these things for decades.
To summarize, it goes something like that:
The aim is spacefaring.
1. We need reusable rockets
2. We should lower cost for space
3. Reliability follows automatically from above
4. We must iterate reasonable size projects to progress
5. We must tolerate failures
6. We must build many parallel and consecutive prototypes
7. Competition is good
Until now it's either been hobbyists or then NASA building something with billions of dollars and taking decades.
It is unlikely that a reliable, cheap and well working operational reusable rocket system will be built right on the first try, even with billions spent. Rather, you have to try different things at a reasonable scale, and then go back to design things differently. You can't know or analyze everything beforehand, what works and what doesn't. You must also be able to take risks in design. That has the potential of radical cost reductions.
All this is possible if you keep the projects small enough so that the failures don't destroy everything.
With small enough steps, you enable progress.
I don't know if I write understandably. This is a perfectly sound concept but I find it very hard to make people understand that spacefaring progress is not reached by giving NASA more money and building the next big moon rocket. In fact, that would stagnate it.
- lifeisstillgood 14y agoI don't think commercial spaceflight will easily "tolerate" manned failures. Maybe with lots of competitors in lots of different countries. But I did not realise the reusability cost structure quite so well as Elon's explanation - 200k on fuel, 60m on a one shot rocket. Before that I truly thought we had no hope before a space elevator. Call me a reluctant convert.