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It’s a great metric at the moment for the reasons that you’ve given. We are living in a period of crisis and instability. Just like in that time, we are close t

It’s a great metric at the moment for the reasons that you’ve given. We are living in a period of crisis and instability. Just like in that time, we are close to yet another global war. The difference is whether or not nuclear weapons will keep things from further escalating.

eru 2y ago
> We are living in a period of crisis and instability. What? We are living in a golden age of unprecedented peace and prosperity. By and large, people never had it so good.
- richk449 2y ago
  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
- Dalewyn 2y ago
  The west (and some tag-alongs like Japan) is living in a golden age of unprecedented peace and prosperity. The world at large has other ideas, especially continental Asia and the Middle East where people seemingly can't stop brutally killing each other.
  - eru 2y ago
    Have you had a look at the graph of GDP per capita in eg Bangladesh recently? PR China has also seen enormous advances in prosperity, and hasn't been in a major war in 70 years, either. In India obesity is a bigger problem than starvation. And approximately everyone can afford a smartphone, too. South East Asia is doing fairly well, too, compared to historical averages. Even Sub Saharan Africa is finally starting to catch up. Yes, there are still wars, alas. But by and large people are richer and living more peaceful lives. We could look at statistics, if you wish. (I was looking for a graph of casualties of war over time for my previous comment, but couldn't find one that was recent enough, sorry.) The founding Prime Minister of my own adopted home of Singapore wrote a book called 'From Third World to First'. And he's right.
  - ithkuil 2y ago
    We have to put things in perspective. During the Balkan wars about 5% of Europe's population lived in a country that was at war. Yet that time period was relatively peaceful compared to the first half of the 20th century where Europe went through two total conflicts. Yet for me the war in Yugoslavia was of personal significance and I felt it and its longer term effects closely. But it wouldn't be fair for me to just dismiss that the second half of the 20th century was a time of peace and prosperity in Europe, because a part of it was burning in flames and committing atrocities to who were their brothers 5 minutes before. The precariousness of peace is what makes it so valuable. Yes. There are conflicts all around the world. Wars. Oppression. Injustice. Racism. I don't think that recognizing that we're living unprecedentedly peaceful and just times is going to make those conflicts and injustices worse. Quite the contrary. I feel that never recognizing the successes and progress that humanity has made in many of those fronts is what will eventually doom us to regress.
lesuorac 2y ago
But why is gold a better metric than anything else? Like if there's a global war I bet people are going to want canned food much more than a gold chain. So should we use the price of chicken soup in 1944 vs 2023? --- But yeah I also agree with eru; being "close to yet another global war" is a way better place to be than "actually in a global war". Considering pretty much every century has them.
- noxvilleza 2y ago
  Precious metals (gold/silver) are very expensive given their weight, relatively easy to divide up, and won't significantly go stale or decompose (some oxidation will occur - sure). I'm sure there are other assets that this is also applicable to - it's just the categorical example I remember discussing with my accounting teacher ~19 years ago.
  - eru 2y ago
    > [...] and won't significantly go stale or decompose (some oxidation will occur - sure) [...] Just to nerd out a bit: You can dissolve gold in some particularly strong acids, but it doesn't really diminish the value of the gold. The effort for getting it back into elemental form is small relative to the price it fetches. Compare this to eg aluminium, or to make an even starker contrast: wood.
    - noxvilleza 2y ago
      Yeah I was just comparing it to other things that are very expensive (by weight and size) like, saffron, truffles, caviar, printer ink, etc.
    - djtango 2y ago
      Yes - exactly this. Gold is nature's money. Every other asset wishes it was told but it's gold's chemistry that makes it a good store of value for exactly what you said. The relative cost to purify and reshape/melt etc is cheap wrt its value. Cf Platinum which is much harder

eru 2y ago

> We are living in a period of crisis and instability. What? We are living in a golden age of unprecedented peace and prosperity. By and large, people never had it so good.

richk449 2y ago
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
Dalewyn 2y ago
The west (and some tag-alongs like Japan) is living in a golden age of unprecedented peace and prosperity. The world at large has other ideas, especially continental Asia and the Middle East where people seemingly can't stop brutally killing each other.
- eru 2y ago
  Have you had a look at the graph of GDP per capita in eg Bangladesh recently? PR China has also seen enormous advances in prosperity, and hasn't been in a major war in 70 years, either. In India obesity is a bigger problem than starvation. And approximately everyone can afford a smartphone, too. South East Asia is doing fairly well, too, compared to historical averages. Even Sub Saharan Africa is finally starting to catch up. Yes, there are still wars, alas. But by and large people are richer and living more peaceful lives. We could look at statistics, if you wish. (I was looking for a graph of casualties of war over time for my previous comment, but couldn't find one that was recent enough, sorry.) The founding Prime Minister of my own adopted home of Singapore wrote a book called 'From Third World to First'. And he's right.
- ithkuil 2y ago
  We have to put things in perspective. During the Balkan wars about 5% of Europe's population lived in a country that was at war. Yet that time period was relatively peaceful compared to the first half of the 20th century where Europe went through two total conflicts. Yet for me the war in Yugoslavia was of personal significance and I felt it and its longer term effects closely. But it wouldn't be fair for me to just dismiss that the second half of the 20th century was a time of peace and prosperity in Europe, because a part of it was burning in flames and committing atrocities to who were their brothers 5 minutes before. The precariousness of peace is what makes it so valuable. Yes. There are conflicts all around the world. Wars. Oppression. Injustice. Racism. I don't think that recognizing that we're living unprecedentedly peaceful and just times is going to make those conflicts and injustices worse. Quite the contrary. I feel that never recognizing the successes and progress that humanity has made in many of those fronts is what will eventually doom us to regress.

lesuorac 2y ago

But why is gold a better metric than anything else? Like if there's a global war I bet people are going to want canned food much more than a gold chain. So should we use the price of chicken soup in 1944 vs 2023? --- But yeah I also agree with eru; being "close to yet another global war" is a way better place to be than "actually in a global war". Considering pretty much every century has them.

noxvilleza 2y ago
Precious metals (gold/silver) are very expensive given their weight, relatively easy to divide up, and won't significantly go stale or decompose (some oxidation will occur - sure). I'm sure there are other assets that this is also applicable to - it's just the categorical example I remember discussing with my accounting teacher ~19 years ago.
- eru 2y ago
  > [...] and won't significantly go stale or decompose (some oxidation will occur - sure) [...] Just to nerd out a bit: You can dissolve gold in some particularly strong acids, but it doesn't really diminish the value of the gold. The effort for getting it back into elemental form is small relative to the price it fetches. Compare this to eg aluminium, or to make an even starker contrast: wood.
  - noxvilleza 2y ago
    Yeah I was just comparing it to other things that are very expensive (by weight and size) like, saffron, truffles, caviar, printer ink, etc.
  - djtango 2y ago
    Yes - exactly this. Gold is nature's money. Every other asset wishes it was told but it's gold's chemistry that makes it a good store of value for exactly what you said. The relative cost to purify and reshape/melt etc is cheap wrt its value. Cf Platinum which is much harder