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I can see why gold would hold its value in history. The world has never been as interconnected as it has been now though. If something truly bad happens to a la

by johng 2y ago

I can see why gold would hold its value in history. The world has never been as interconnected as it has been now though. If something truly bad happens to a large dominant player, it will likely leak over to the whole world. If war comes, gold will be essentially worthless. I think now, unlike any other time in history, if the SHTF gold won't be valuable like it has in the past. Instead it will be necessary items... batteries, medicine, bullets, ammo, etc... items you can actually use and need.

wslh 2y ago
> If war comes, gold will be essentially worthless. Don't you think the Chinese (for example) has done its game-theory analysis and there is wisdom behind their massive purchases? Or, following your hypothesis that China does not think they will enter into a war soon. Another hint is that gold is essential for the electronics industry [1] and you can take some advantage there and/or move the market. [1] https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2022/technology https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gol...
lazide 2y ago
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/06/05/gold-world-war-ii-and-operation-fish/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/06/05/go...] Gold will always have value because it is fundamentally scarce, and nearly impossible to destroy - due to its very nature. It isn’t the end all be all - but it has its place. Like when there is no universal agreed upon form of exchange between entities. Going off something where rarity is a fundamental property of the universe as we know it, seems as good as we can get right now eh? As to why Platinum or the like doesn’t have a similar place is a good question to ask - one of history though I suspect. Why is Bitcoin more valuable than Bitcoin Cash?
- wslh 2y ago
  Bitcoin is not the same as gold.
tschwimmer 2y ago
Gold is both a great store of value (dense, does not degrade, easy to store) and a reasonable medium of exchange (small amounts can cover most transactions, but hard to verify amounts and purity) so I think it's quite likely that it will retain value in the event of social collapse. Recall that gold was a medium of exchange in the west and Asia for thousands of years before it had industrial value. The other commodities you listed would certainly be important, but the problem is they don't do well on one or both of the dimensions above. Another big issue is that you sort of want some generic means of exchange that doesn't address a specific need. Sure, you'll probably need all the things you listed at one point or another, but what if you already have enough bullets, antiseptic, etc? You can hold on to it to trade, but what if the next person doesn't need it either? You don't need to immediately use gold but it's likely that the next guy you deal with will trade for it because he knows he can trade with it too.
retrac 2y ago
> The Chief Engineer of the Manhattan District, Colonel James C. Marshall, and his deputy, Lieutenant Colonel Kenneth D. Nichols, discovered that the electromagnetic isotope separation process would require 5,000 short tons (4,500 tonnes) of copper, which was in desperately short supply. However, they realized that silver could be substituted, in an 11:10 ratio of copper:silver. On 3 August 1942, Nichols met with the Under Secretary of the Treasury, Daniel W. Bell, and asked for the transfer of silver bullion from the West Point Bullion Depository. Nichols later recalled the conversation: > He explained the procedure for transferring the silver and asked, "How much do you need?" I replied, "Six thousand tons." 'How many troy ounces is that?" he asked. In fact I did not know how to convert tons to troy ounces, and neither did he. A little impatient, I responded, "I don't know how many troy ounces we need but I know I need six thousand tons—that is a definite quantity. What difference does it make how we express the quantity?" He replied rather indignantly, "Young man, you may think of silver in tons, but the Treasury will always think of silver in troy ounces."
more_corn 2y ago
They have to hold something. They hold us treasuries now. They don’t want that when they go to war over Taiwan but it takes time to switch. They’re probably shifting massive amounts of cash into all stable alternatives.

by johng 2y ago

wslh 2y ago

> If war comes, gold will be essentially worthless. Don't you think the Chinese (for example) has done its game-theory analysis and there is wisdom behind their massive purchases? Or, following your hypothesis that China does not think they will enter into a war soon. Another hint is that gold is essential for the electronics industry [1] and you can take some advantage there and/or move the market. [1] https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2022/technology https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gol...

lazide 2y ago

[https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/06/05/gold-world-war-ii-and-operation-fish/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/06/05/go...] Gold will always have value because it is fundamentally scarce, and nearly impossible to destroy - due to its very nature. It isn’t the end all be all - but it has its place. Like when there is no universal agreed upon form of exchange between entities. Going off something where rarity is a fundamental property of the universe as we know it, seems as good as we can get right now eh? As to why Platinum or the like doesn’t have a similar place is a good question to ask - one of history though I suspect. Why is Bitcoin more valuable than Bitcoin Cash?

wslh 2y ago
Bitcoin is not the same as gold.

tschwimmer 2y ago

Gold is both a great store of value (dense, does not degrade, easy to store) and a reasonable medium of exchange (small amounts can cover most transactions, but hard to verify amounts and purity) so I think it's quite likely that it will retain value in the event of social collapse. Recall that gold was a medium of exchange in the west and Asia for thousands of years before it had industrial value. The other commodities you listed would certainly be important, but the problem is they don't do well on one or both of the dimensions above. Another big issue is that you sort of want some generic means of exchange that doesn't address a specific need. Sure, you'll probably need all the things you listed at one point or another, but what if you already have enough bullets, antiseptic, etc? You can hold on to it to trade, but what if the next person doesn't need it either? You don't need to immediately use gold but it's likely that the next guy you deal with will trade for it because he knows he can trade with it too.

retrac 2y ago

> The Chief Engineer of the Manhattan District, Colonel James C. Marshall, and his deputy, Lieutenant Colonel Kenneth D. Nichols, discovered that the electromagnetic isotope separation process would require 5,000 short tons (4,500 tonnes) of copper, which was in desperately short supply. However, they realized that silver could be substituted, in an 11:10 ratio of copper:silver. On 3 August 1942, Nichols met with the Under Secretary of the Treasury, Daniel W. Bell, and asked for the transfer of silver bullion from the West Point Bullion Depository. Nichols later recalled the conversation: > He explained the procedure for transferring the silver and asked, "How much do you need?" I replied, "Six thousand tons." 'How many troy ounces is that?" he asked. In fact I did not know how to convert tons to troy ounces, and neither did he. A little impatient, I responded, "I don't know how many troy ounces we need but I know I need six thousand tons—that is a definite quantity. What difference does it make how we express the quantity?" He replied rather indignantly, "Young man, you may think of silver in tons, but the Treasury will always think of silver in troy ounces."

more_corn 2y ago

They have to hold something. They hold us treasuries now. They don’t want that when they go to war over Taiwan but it takes time to switch. They’re probably shifting massive amounts of cash into all stable alternatives.