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There's wide speculation that what will be branded as either GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 has finished pretraining now and is undergoing internal testing for a fairly near-

There's wide speculation that what will be branded as either GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 has finished pretraining now and is undergoing internal testing for a fairly near-term release.

michelsedgh 2y ago
My speculation is that internally they have much stronger models like Q* but they won’t be able to release them to public even if they want to for lack of compute and safety and other reasons they see probably…
- kaliqt 2y ago
  They don't actually care about safety, that's a lie, so compute and business strategy is the only thing stopping them. SoRA is the same. It's not ready and it's too slow.
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  I am curious whether this is true - OAI at least has the reputation in the industry of caring the least about safety of the major labs
  - hhh 2y ago
    If they don’t care about safety (or perceived safety), why do they spend so much time lobotomizing models for safety reasons?
    - Terretta 2y ago
      market reach e.g. ability to have chat app on iOS (the API is less limited) public relations, limit the edge case nonsense 'journalists' hype so corporate execs aren't terrorized into avoiding buying doesn't have to be as smart as it could be, it just has to be smarter than other models, so might as well file down some sharp edges for sake of above
    - realusername 2y ago
      Because of PR reasons. They want to avoid government legislations and pretending that they care helps
    - whimsicalism 2y ago
      I didn’t say they don’t care about safety, merely that of the big labs they care the least or close to the least
- torginus 2y ago
  Honestly I'm pretty puzzled by this mystical fog that hangs over OpenAIs skunkworks projects - don't people leave for other jobs/go to conferences etc.? I'm surprised that nobody call tell what they infact do or do not have.
  - lightbritefight 2y ago
    Truth tends to take the wind out of hypes sails. With hundreds of billions on the line for the founders and a whole lot of likely unvested stock options for the employees, it doesnt seem like anyone wants to open up about whats actually going on day to day.
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 2y ago
  > My speculation is that internally they have much stronger models like Q* People used to speculate the same about Google. Everyone hypes up their “secret, too powerful to release” models. Remember the dude who was convinced that there was a sentient AI in the machine? The light of actual public release tends to expose a lot of the hype.
  - HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
    That would be a reasonable assumption if OpenAI did not already have an established track record of repeatedly re-defining our fundamental expectations of what technology can do. GPT-4 was already completed and secretly being tested on Bing users in India in mid-2022 (there were even Microsoft forum posts asking about the funny chatbot). Even after heavy quantization and the alignment tax GPT-4 is still the bar to beat. It's been two years and their funding has increased over 10x since then. Short of a fundamental Hard Problem that they cannot overcome, their internal bleeding edge models can reasonably be assumed to possess significantly greater capabilities.

There's wide speculation that what will be branded as either GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 has finished pretraining now and is undergoing internal testing for a fairly near-term release.

michelsedgh 2y ago

My speculation is that internally they have much stronger models like Q* but they won’t be able to release them to public even if they want to for lack of compute and safety and other reasons they see probably…

kaliqt 2y ago
They don't actually care about safety, that's a lie, so compute and business strategy is the only thing stopping them. SoRA is the same. It's not ready and it's too slow.
whimsicalism 2y ago
I am curious whether this is true - OAI at least has the reputation in the industry of caring the least about safety of the major labs
- hhh 2y ago
  If they don’t care about safety (or perceived safety), why do they spend so much time lobotomizing models for safety reasons?
  - Terretta 2y ago
    market reach e.g. ability to have chat app on iOS (the API is less limited) public relations, limit the edge case nonsense 'journalists' hype so corporate execs aren't terrorized into avoiding buying doesn't have to be as smart as it could be, it just has to be smarter than other models, so might as well file down some sharp edges for sake of above
  - realusername 2y ago
    Because of PR reasons. They want to avoid government legislations and pretending that they care helps
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    I didn’t say they don’t care about safety, merely that of the big labs they care the least or close to the least
torginus 2y ago
Honestly I'm pretty puzzled by this mystical fog that hangs over OpenAIs skunkworks projects - don't people leave for other jobs/go to conferences etc.? I'm surprised that nobody call tell what they infact do or do not have.
- lightbritefight 2y ago
  Truth tends to take the wind out of hypes sails. With hundreds of billions on the line for the founders and a whole lot of likely unvested stock options for the employees, it doesnt seem like anyone wants to open up about whats actually going on day to day.
RcouF1uZ4gsC 2y ago
> My speculation is that internally they have much stronger models like Q* People used to speculate the same about Google. Everyone hypes up their “secret, too powerful to release” models. Remember the dude who was convinced that there was a sentient AI in the machine? The light of actual public release tends to expose a lot of the hype.
- HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
  That would be a reasonable assumption if OpenAI did not already have an established track record of repeatedly re-defining our fundamental expectations of what technology can do. GPT-4 was already completed and secretly being tested on Bing users in India in mid-2022 (there were even Microsoft forum posts asking about the funny chatbot). Even after heavy quantization and the alignment tax GPT-4 is still the bar to beat. It's been two years and their funding has increased over 10x since then. Short of a fundamental Hard Problem that they cannot overcome, their internal bleeding edge models can reasonably be assumed to possess significantly greater capabilities.