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I feel like at some point, UUVs will be able to disable one part of the nuclear triad. A submarine with nuclear warheads is such a big ticket item that no count

I feel like at some point, UUVs will be able to disable one part of the nuclear triad. A submarine with nuclear warheads is such a big ticket item that no country can reasonably have a lot of them. The US has 14, Russia 11. The entire world fleet is probably in the 30s. A UUV that can find one and follow it indefinitely could be able to neutralize it and would be, presumably, much cheaper and easier to build. How hard could it be to eventually find and track every ballistic missile submarine with them? I’m sure there are things I’m not understanding (how communications work, whether such a sub would be able to launch ICBMs even after being torpedoed, etc.) but it seems like this should have major strategic ramifications eventually.

chatmasta 3y ago
I think what you’re missing is that a nuclear submarine wouldn’t let a UUV “follow it indefinitely.” Also, the submarine can have its own fleet of UUVs.
- mattmaroon 3y ago
  Possibly. Everyone so far since the advent of nukes has generally abided by not shooting each other’s surveillance down in international territory (water, space, etc.) But perhaps that would change if UUVs are following subs. Also I suppose the sub could re-enter its own coastal waters and then do it too, much as we shot down China’s spy balloon.
- gattr 3y ago
  That, and also, as pointed out in e.g [1], a "boomer" submarine can launch all its SLBMs in 60-90 s. Faster than it could be torpedoed. And even if you manage to disable it very quickly, just a few launched missiles mean multiple times that number of warheads (MIRV). [1] Annie Jacobsen, "Nuclear War: A Scenario"
credit_guy 3y ago
> A UUV that can find one and follow it indefinitely Maybe it could find one but it can't follow it indefinitely if it is powered by a non-nuclear engine.
- mattmaroon 3y ago
  One by itself couldn't, a swarm of them could.

chatmasta 3y ago

I think what you’re missing is that a nuclear submarine wouldn’t let a UUV “follow it indefinitely.” Also, the submarine can have its own fleet of UUVs.

mattmaroon 3y ago
Possibly. Everyone so far since the advent of nukes has generally abided by not shooting each other’s surveillance down in international territory (water, space, etc.) But perhaps that would change if UUVs are following subs. Also I suppose the sub could re-enter its own coastal waters and then do it too, much as we shot down China’s spy balloon.
gattr 3y ago
That, and also, as pointed out in e.g [1], a "boomer" submarine can launch all its SLBMs in 60-90 s. Faster than it could be torpedoed. And even if you manage to disable it very quickly, just a few launched missiles mean multiple times that number of warheads (MIRV). [1] Annie Jacobsen, "Nuclear War: A Scenario"

credit_guy 3y ago

> A UUV that can find one and follow it indefinitely Maybe it could find one but it can't follow it indefinitely if it is powered by a non-nuclear engine.

mattmaroon 3y ago
One by itself couldn't, a swarm of them could.