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Here is my take: Elon actually has the numbers. And the profit to expenditure did not add up. The team wasn’t adapting in a useful manor, hence this is the out

Here is my take: Elon actually has the numbers. And the profit to expenditure did not add up. The team wasn’t adapting in a useful manor, hence this is the outcome. This is as plausible as all the other opinions out there. In short we don’t know the half of it. What we do know is that ev sales have taken a dive. A network that grows faster then ev adoption might not be that useful, considering the bigger the network the bigger the upkeep. Also, Tesla only build that network because no one else was. (Check some past articles, this was clearly said). Evs have now been adopted to a point that other companies are getting into the game. Especially : gas stations. Last: home charging for daily commute will be more important. Most people will only go to a Super Charger on trips. Like 5% of the usage of the vehicle? There is more to this then flashy headlines. Elon is a good business man, who denies that, hasn’t grasped what he was able to achieve so far. Is he behaving like a 140 character idiot? Absolutely, but this is not new. His long form talks on the other hand often are very reasonable.

adriancr 2y ago
> Is he behaving like a 140 character idiot? who knows... perhaps he should be held accountable to the other 80% of investors and be forced to explain his moves?, it's no longer his company and yet he still behaves like it. Also a PR firm to avoid all these controversies would help a lot. He's a few really bad tweets from getting boycotted, or a few bad decisions from tanking tesla. Supercharger network is definitely a reason why I went for a Tesla and i'm definitely left wondering what's going on and how this will affect long trips. Edit: as noted by others, no real effect in europe due to availability of other options and drive to have chargers almost everywhere, so perhaps it is a good decision to focus on cars: https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/new-energies/europe/article/fast-chargers-every-60-km-key-eu-motorways?a=FJA05&t%5B0%5D=Charging&curl=1 https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/new-energies/europe/article/f... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40254733#40255521 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40254733#40255521
- HDThoreaun 2y ago
  Tesla cant get the gov subsidies for charging stations because of the rules about membership. Without the subsidies they cant compete. Really is as simple as that
  - adriancr 2y ago
    > Tesla cant get the gov subsidies for charging stations because of the rules about membership. They have opened up superchargers for other cars, so they would get subsidies if they wanted. It seems like they do not want to compete in charging network market. It would also not provide any benefit for them if everyone can use them and there are others building them. They were useful to kick start EV adoption. Shame though since it could have been spun up as a separate company and sold off.
hedgehog 2y ago
I don't know about the rest of it but EV sales continue to increase, at least up to 2023.
Arainach 2y ago
>Last: home charging for daily commute will be more important. Most people will only go to a Super Charger on trips. Like 5% of the usage of the vehicle? Sure, if you want to limit your customer base to people who own their own standalone homes and don't live in apartments or condos where they have to park on the street or in a shared lot/garage... Then again, limiting the potential customer base is Elon's entire strategy for Tesla these days.
- tails4e 2y ago
  I charge at home and almost certainly would not have an EV if I could not. I know someone who had an EV and could not charge at home who got rid of it as it was really inconvenient to have to regularly wait 30 to 40 mins to charge as a charger was not on his commute. Long story short, I think EVs with current battery tech is practically limited to those who can charge where they live (be it apartment parking garage or at their house)
  - tacker2000 2y ago
    Yes, thats what im also saying, what about city dwellers who dont have a garage? Who normally park on the street? They wont be able to charge their EVs with current offerings. And I dont think that putting a charging station every 5m on the city sidewalks will ever happen or will be feasible.
    - meheleventyone 2y ago
      They’re not every five meters but here chargers are all over the place in clusters of parking spots on sidewalks.
    - asadotzler 2y ago
      Charge at the grocery store or while out to dinner. If you commute 150 miles a week to work, and do another 50 miles on the weekend, you're at 200 miles a week. You can do 230 miles at 80% in a model 3 which means one charge a week covers you pretty well for most weeks. That's 15-20 minutes of charge time at a level 3 charger. I mean, you could do that while eating a Big Mac and fries, assuming an available charger. If you really do live right in the city where you work and park on the street, your commute is probably more like 50-75 miles a week so you only really need to charge once every few weeks, or you can charge more frequently and much more briefly. The time when this is difficult isn't city streets, it's distant apartment buildings in suburbia commuting into the city. The people with 400 or 500 miles a week of commute and no home charging. For them, it's 30-40 minutes of charging across two stops compared to 8-10 minutes at the gas station. In that world, one might have to plan a mid-week dinner out or twice a week shopping or something like that to get a "free" charge or two where waiting around isn't an issue.
ern 2y ago
What we do know is that ev sales have taken a dive "A record 1.2 million U.S. vehicle buyers chose to go electric last year, according to estimates from Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company. More specifically, 1,189,051 new electric vehicles (EVs) were put into service as the slow shift to an electrified future continued unabated. In 2023, the EV share of the total U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. That is up from 5.9% in 2022. EV sales in the fourth quarter set a record for both volume and share: 317,168 and 8.1%, respectively. And while records were set, the oft-reported slowdown is real. Q4 EV sales increased year over year by 40% – a strong result by any measure, except when compared to the growth the industry saw in previous quarters. The market posted a 49% gain in Q3, and EV sales were up 52% year over year in Q4 2022. By volume, EV sales in Q4 were higher than in Q3 by roughly 5,000 units. The EV market in the U.S. is still growing, but not growing as fast." https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023-ev-sales/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023-ev-sales/
dyauspitr 2y ago
Do you have any sources for EV sales taking a dive because the numbers are up.
- tails4e 2y ago
  Seems like it's slowed in growth, rather than actually declined. So disingenuous to say they have taken a dive really.
  - LunicLynx 2y ago
    True, I exaggerated. Sorry
- LunicLynx 2y ago
  Many of the major manufacturers are scaling back ev production. I assume (assume) there is a reason for that. And this assumption is driven by news articles and earning calls. This is just (just) my opinion, to have a not so gloom and doom look on the matter. Fact, for me at least, is, that we don’t have all the data. So I assume that there might be more to it, cost wise.
Dalewyn 2y ago
>A network that grows faster then ev adoption might not be that useful, There is a catch-22 in that without a charging network as saturated as the gas station network, there won't be EV adoption.
- asadotzler 2y ago
  California and the national government are poised to spend about $10B between them to build charging infra. I doubt Tesla spent 1/4th that to build its Supercharger network.
throwaway473825 2y ago
>What we do know is that ev sales have taken a dive. EV sales are in fact growing in all major regions in the world: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/quarterly-electric-car-sales-by-region-2021-2024 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/quarterly-ele... However, what we do know is the transition being existential for some actors - and even countries. If Russian propaganda about Ukraine is bad, EVs are much worse, since they are actually an existential threat.
- Ferret7446 2y ago
  According to an article quoted by another poster, they are growing slower. The rate of growth is decreasing. It is reasonable to assume that without another keystone event, we are past the halfway point in the growth curve, and peak ownership is less than double what it is currently.

adriancr 2y ago

> Is he behaving like a 140 character idiot? who knows... perhaps he should be held accountable to the other 80% of investors and be forced to explain his moves?, it's no longer his company and yet he still behaves like it. Also a PR firm to avoid all these controversies would help a lot. He's a few really bad tweets from getting boycotted, or a few bad decisions from tanking tesla. Supercharger network is definitely a reason why I went for a Tesla and i'm definitely left wondering what's going on and how this will affect long trips. Edit: as noted by others, no real effect in europe due to availability of other options and drive to have chargers almost everywhere, so perhaps it is a good decision to focus on cars: https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/new-energies/europe/article/fast-chargers-every-60-km-key-eu-motorways?a=FJA05&t%5B0%5D=Charging&curl=1 https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/new-energies/europe/article/f... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40254733#40255521 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40254733#40255521

HDThoreaun 2y ago
Tesla cant get the gov subsidies for charging stations because of the rules about membership. Without the subsidies they cant compete. Really is as simple as that
- adriancr 2y ago
  > Tesla cant get the gov subsidies for charging stations because of the rules about membership. They have opened up superchargers for other cars, so they would get subsidies if they wanted. It seems like they do not want to compete in charging network market. It would also not provide any benefit for them if everyone can use them and there are others building them. They were useful to kick start EV adoption. Shame though since it could have been spun up as a separate company and sold off.

hedgehog 2y ago

I don't know about the rest of it but EV sales continue to increase, at least up to 2023.

Arainach 2y ago

>Last: home charging for daily commute will be more important. Most people will only go to a Super Charger on trips. Like 5% of the usage of the vehicle? Sure, if you want to limit your customer base to people who own their own standalone homes and don't live in apartments or condos where they have to park on the street or in a shared lot/garage... Then again, limiting the potential customer base is Elon's entire strategy for Tesla these days.

tails4e 2y ago
I charge at home and almost certainly would not have an EV if I could not. I know someone who had an EV and could not charge at home who got rid of it as it was really inconvenient to have to regularly wait 30 to 40 mins to charge as a charger was not on his commute. Long story short, I think EVs with current battery tech is practically limited to those who can charge where they live (be it apartment parking garage or at their house)
- tacker2000 2y ago
  Yes, thats what im also saying, what about city dwellers who dont have a garage? Who normally park on the street? They wont be able to charge their EVs with current offerings. And I dont think that putting a charging station every 5m on the city sidewalks will ever happen or will be feasible.
  - meheleventyone 2y ago
    They’re not every five meters but here chargers are all over the place in clusters of parking spots on sidewalks.
  - asadotzler 2y ago
    Charge at the grocery store or while out to dinner. If you commute 150 miles a week to work, and do another 50 miles on the weekend, you're at 200 miles a week. You can do 230 miles at 80% in a model 3 which means one charge a week covers you pretty well for most weeks. That's 15-20 minutes of charge time at a level 3 charger. I mean, you could do that while eating a Big Mac and fries, assuming an available charger. If you really do live right in the city where you work and park on the street, your commute is probably more like 50-75 miles a week so you only really need to charge once every few weeks, or you can charge more frequently and much more briefly. The time when this is difficult isn't city streets, it's distant apartment buildings in suburbia commuting into the city. The people with 400 or 500 miles a week of commute and no home charging. For them, it's 30-40 minutes of charging across two stops compared to 8-10 minutes at the gas station. In that world, one might have to plan a mid-week dinner out or twice a week shopping or something like that to get a "free" charge or two where waiting around isn't an issue.

ern 2y ago

What we do know is that ev sales have taken a dive "A record 1.2 million U.S. vehicle buyers chose to go electric last year, according to estimates from Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company. More specifically, 1,189,051 new electric vehicles (EVs) were put into service as the slow shift to an electrified future continued unabated. In 2023, the EV share of the total U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. That is up from 5.9% in 2022. EV sales in the fourth quarter set a record for both volume and share: 317,168 and 8.1%, respectively. And while records were set, the oft-reported slowdown is real. Q4 EV sales increased year over year by 40% – a strong result by any measure, except when compared to the growth the industry saw in previous quarters. The market posted a 49% gain in Q3, and EV sales were up 52% year over year in Q4 2022. By volume, EV sales in Q4 were higher than in Q3 by roughly 5,000 units. The EV market in the U.S. is still growing, but not growing as fast." https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023-ev-sales/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023-ev-sales/

dyauspitr 2y ago

Do you have any sources for EV sales taking a dive because the numbers are up.

tails4e 2y ago
Seems like it's slowed in growth, rather than actually declined. So disingenuous to say they have taken a dive really.
- LunicLynx 2y ago
  True, I exaggerated. Sorry
LunicLynx 2y ago
Many of the major manufacturers are scaling back ev production. I assume (assume) there is a reason for that. And this assumption is driven by news articles and earning calls. This is just (just) my opinion, to have a not so gloom and doom look on the matter. Fact, for me at least, is, that we don’t have all the data. So I assume that there might be more to it, cost wise.

Dalewyn 2y ago

>A network that grows faster then ev adoption might not be that useful, There is a catch-22 in that without a charging network as saturated as the gas station network, there won't be EV adoption.

asadotzler 2y ago
California and the national government are poised to spend about $10B between them to build charging infra. I doubt Tesla spent 1/4th that to build its Supercharger network.

throwaway473825 2y ago

>What we do know is that ev sales have taken a dive. EV sales are in fact growing in all major regions in the world: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/quarterly-electric-car-sales-by-region-2021-2024 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/quarterly-ele... However, what we do know is the transition being existential for some actors - and even countries. If Russian propaganda about Ukraine is bad, EVs are much worse, since they are actually an existential threat.

Ferret7446 2y ago
According to an article quoted by another poster, they are growing slower. The rate of growth is decreasing. It is reasonable to assume that without another keystone event, we are past the halfway point in the growth curve, and peak ownership is less than double what it is currently.