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It appears that economy is in widespread recession. Hundreds of thousands have lost jobs. Job reports are getting revised after every few months. I saw a tweet

It appears that economy is in widespread recession. Hundreds of thousands have lost jobs. Job reports are getting revised after every few months. I saw a tweet that showed we had a net job loss when revised reports are accounted for. I see thousands of videos on TikTok saying people are struggling. Many job gains are in low-wage category. I don't know what is going on. We have a business but people have stopped buying for the most part in last 6 months. Anyone else see your business or startup struggling to close deals in last 6 months? Hope it doesn't last longer. Slow bleeding is worse than hard recession.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> saw a tweet that showed we had a net job loss when revised reports are accounted for This is false [1]. > Anyone else see your business or startup struggling to close deals in last 6 months? VCs are raising record-breaking funds again [2]. [1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS [2] https://www.altassets.net/private-equity-news/by-pe-sector/venturegrowth/andreessen-horowitz-said-to-near-7bn-of-new-fund-capital.html https://www.altassets.net/private-equity-news/by-pe-sector/v...
- twosignum 2y ago
  That started this month. But, job loss after revised job reports are not false. I can't find the tweet right now, but it had extreme detail analysis how we are losing jobs. VC raising funds have nothing to do with ecomony. It is rich people moving money among each other. If you believe in trickle down, then perhaps part of these record breaking funds will flow to rich and connected founders. For everyone else, there is a big struggle.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > job loss after revised job reports are not false The claim absolutely is [1]. Revisions for 2022 were on average up. Revisions for 2023 were on average down, but only about 10% of the original increase. > VC raising funds have nothing to do with ecomony. It is rich people moving money among each other It has a hell of a lot to do with fundraising! [1] https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm
    - twosignum 2y ago
      Bro, you are out of touch with regular people. VCs are no way indication of how regular ecomony functions. For a software engineer who lost his/her job and now struggling for months is real signal. Same with business who are one or two payments away from closing down. BLS is government resource. Same with job reports, data gets revised often.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > VCs are no way indication of how regular ecomony functions Regular people aren't seeing their "business or startup struggling to close deals in last 6 months." You made two false claims. They're being refuted individually. > a software engineer who lost his/her job and now struggling for months is real signal FTFA (and top comment): "Jobs in tech, finance, law, and accounting were essentially flat or slightly down." That's nationally; it's worse if you're in e.g. the Bay Area. Also, statistically speaking, software engineers aren't "regular people" given their median wage is double the population's. > BLS is government resource. Same with job reports, data gets revised often Yes. You can see the revisions. They publish them. They're linked to above. If you know how to read these data, you know first estimates can be 10 to 40% off. That's why they're published as estimates. Also, there are dozens of employment metrics. Here is a private one [1]. They all paint the same picture. [1] https://adpemploymentreport.com https://adpemploymentreport.com
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
wbl 2y ago
People are always losing jobs and getting new ones. Where people struggle is with rate exposure and some industries and big ticket items like housing.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> saw a tweet that showed we had a net job loss when revised reports are accounted for This is false [1]. > Anyone else see your business or startup struggling to close deals in last 6 months? VCs are raising record-breaking funds again [2]. [1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS [2] https://www.altassets.net/private-equity-news/by-pe-sector/venturegrowth/andreessen-horowitz-said-to-near-7bn-of-new-fund-capital.html https://www.altassets.net/private-equity-news/by-pe-sector/v...

twosignum 2y ago
That started this month. But, job loss after revised job reports are not false. I can't find the tweet right now, but it had extreme detail analysis how we are losing jobs. VC raising funds have nothing to do with ecomony. It is rich people moving money among each other. If you believe in trickle down, then perhaps part of these record breaking funds will flow to rich and connected founders. For everyone else, there is a big struggle.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > job loss after revised job reports are not false The claim absolutely is [1]. Revisions for 2022 were on average up. Revisions for 2023 were on average down, but only about 10% of the original increase. > VC raising funds have nothing to do with ecomony. It is rich people moving money among each other It has a hell of a lot to do with fundraising! [1] https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm
  - twosignum 2y ago
    Bro, you are out of touch with regular people. VCs are no way indication of how regular ecomony functions. For a software engineer who lost his/her job and now struggling for months is real signal. Same with business who are one or two payments away from closing down. BLS is government resource. Same with job reports, data gets revised often.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > VCs are no way indication of how regular ecomony functions Regular people aren't seeing their "business or startup struggling to close deals in last 6 months." You made two false claims. They're being refuted individually. > a software engineer who lost his/her job and now struggling for months is real signal FTFA (and top comment): "Jobs in tech, finance, law, and accounting were essentially flat or slightly down." That's nationally; it's worse if you're in e.g. the Bay Area. Also, statistically speaking, software engineers aren't "regular people" given their median wage is double the population's. > BLS is government resource. Same with job reports, data gets revised often Yes. You can see the revisions. They publish them. They're linked to above. If you know how to read these data, you know first estimates can be 10 to 40% off. That's why they're published as estimates. Also, there are dozens of employment metrics. Here is a private one [1]. They all paint the same picture. [1] https://adpemploymentreport.com https://adpemploymentreport.com
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

wbl 2y ago

People are always losing jobs and getting new ones. Where people struggle is with rate exposure and some industries and big ticket items like housing.