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I think 10-15 years is extremely pessimistic given we have cars on the road now delivering passengers. Scaling that is the game.
by jillesvangurp 3y ago
I think 10-15 years is extremely pessimistic given we have cars on the road now delivering passengers. Scaling that is the game.
- anon22981 3y agoI’d say 10-15 years is an optimistic outlook for ”full autonomy”. Maybe in some regions of the world in certain weather conditions. Full autonomy in northern snowy countries isn’t going to happen in 10-15 years, imo.
- antupis 3y agoI think 10-15 years is a good guess because the issue is about regulation and infra and these move much slower.
- smcin 3y ago> given we have cars on the road now delivering passengers No we don't, only local roads, not fare-paying passengers on freeways, not in NorCal. In Phoenix AZ they are still testing self-driving on the freeway on employees, not fare-paying passengers on freeway. Wait until you see self-driving taxis on freeway and to/from airports, with fee-paying passengers, in traffic, in bad weather, at night. See how many accidents there are per million miles. Then the discussion moves to "How many accidents/fatalities are acceptable per million passenger-miles?"
- jillesvangurp 3y ago> See how many accidents there are per million miles. It's hard to do worse than human drivers on that front. Especially under the circumstances you mention.
- acdha 3y agoDon’t we need data before we can say that? Human drivers are pretty bad but self-driving software is hard to compare appropriately since you can’t just use national averages which include conditions the self-driving systems don’t support.