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From the outside: Diversification is always great. Build a whole ecosystem of small-scale rocket manufacturers instead of one big monopoly. That will foster com
by choeger 2y ago
From the outside: Diversification is always great. Build a whole ecosystem of small-scale rocket manufacturers instead of one big monopoly. That will foster competition and innovation.
From the investor: SpaceX might fail. Even if there Falcons are pretty much unbeatable now, you don't know what's going to happen with Starship. And even the Falcons could conceivably be grounded for years after some hypothetical flaw is found. More likely: With the price reductions made by SpaceX, the market will grow and there will be more than enough clients.
From the inside: Because it's a fun challenge and literally rocket science, of course.
- hinkley 2y agoSpaceX was looking to reduce prices to orbit by 10x, and they are currently sitting at around 6.7x.
- avmich 2y agoI interpret this as that SpaceX has a high margin between market prices and their internal costs, so they can safely reduce prices when needed while remaining profitable. The competitor of course should aim not to the current prices, but to SpaceX's costs to be able to compete on the market.
- hinkley 2y agoI probably over summarized. I think there’s still room to undercut or compete (particularly on specialty projects) until SpaceX hits 10x for sure, and maybe as high as 15x.
- HeyLaughingBoy 2y agoAnd even if there isn't, when SpaceX is booked out for years and you need a launch slot in 6 months, that's when having competition is valuable. Always look for other ways to compete besides price. (not intended to be as preachy as it sounds :-)
- consumer451 2y agoJust curious, how did you calculate the 6.7x?
- hinkley 2y agoI found an article that declared pre-and post-SpaceX cost to orbit per kilogram and it was something like 18.5k versus 2.6k (numbers from memory). Elon before the first Dragon worked was talking about reducing launch costs by a factor of ten.