3 ms·

Exponentially? Not really. In pre-state societies, we generally seem to see around a 15% chance of dying due to warfare in your lifetime. Early states seem to

Exponentially? Not really. In pre-state societies, we generally seem to see around a 15% chance of dying due to warfare in your lifetime. Early states seem to see that fall to around mid-high single digits. And this decreases to tiny fractions in modern times, but mostly because warfare has declined rather than wars becoming less deadly. Brutal episodes of war--say the Eastern Front on WW2 or some of the theaters in modern wars--can see overall death rates of up to 20 or 30% of people involved. Given that the amount of people involved in military action has generally decreased (pre-state societies generally mobilize their entire military age male population as warriors, modern industrial states... don't), this suggests that ancient warfare is approximately as brutal as even lopsided modern warfare.

robertlagrant 3y ago
There's a difference between "young men killed on the battlefield" and "everyone else also being killed" - while (sadly) the latter did happen, e.g. Hiroshima, or as Russian troops swept through Germany, or Dresden, it wasn't par for the course or expected as what happens after the losing side lost.
- bitcurious 3y ago
  The Soviets* pretty clearly did not kill all of the civilians in Germany, nor did they attempt to. Unlike the Germans themselves, who exterminated whole towns and had a plan that involved total genocide of their conquered peoples. Pretty wild to miss such an obvious example. *really neither the sins nor the wins in WWII belong exclusively to the Russians. Another subtlety misleading aspect of this post.
  - robertlagrant 3y ago
    > really neither the sins nor the wins in WWII belong exclusively to the Russians. Another subtlety misleading aspect of this post I didn't mention any wins. As for the sins: did you get that despite my listing something the British did and something the Americans did?
    - bitcurious 3y ago
      Note the context: I corrected your use of “Russians” in favor of “Soviets.”
      - robertlagrant 3y ago
        You did that, but that didn't seem to be the context at all. You were implying I was misleading people into thinking all the sins and wins were Russian, which I obviously wasn't doing.
  - rufus_foreman 3y ago
    The Germans attempted to exterminate entire races of people, the Soviets attempted to exterminate entire classes of people. The Soviets killed far more people if only because Stalin ruled for longer than Hitler. As one of the first leaders of the Cheka said, "We are not waging war against individual persons. We are exterminating the bourgeoisie as a class".

robertlagrant 3y ago

There's a difference between "young men killed on the battlefield" and "everyone else also being killed" - while (sadly) the latter did happen, e.g. Hiroshima, or as Russian troops swept through Germany, or Dresden, it wasn't par for the course or expected as what happens after the losing side lost.

bitcurious 3y ago
The Soviets* pretty clearly did not kill all of the civilians in Germany, nor did they attempt to. Unlike the Germans themselves, who exterminated whole towns and had a plan that involved total genocide of their conquered peoples. Pretty wild to miss such an obvious example. *really neither the sins nor the wins in WWII belong exclusively to the Russians. Another subtlety misleading aspect of this post.
- robertlagrant 3y ago
  > really neither the sins nor the wins in WWII belong exclusively to the Russians. Another subtlety misleading aspect of this post I didn't mention any wins. As for the sins: did you get that despite my listing something the British did and something the Americans did?
  - bitcurious 3y ago
    Note the context: I corrected your use of “Russians” in favor of “Soviets.”
    - robertlagrant 3y ago
      You did that, but that didn't seem to be the context at all. You were implying I was misleading people into thinking all the sins and wins were Russian, which I obviously wasn't doing.
- rufus_foreman 3y ago
  The Germans attempted to exterminate entire races of people, the Soviets attempted to exterminate entire classes of people. The Soviets killed far more people if only because Stalin ruled for longer than Hitler. As one of the first leaders of the Cheka said, "We are not waging war against individual persons. We are exterminating the bourgeoisie as a class".