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At the start COVID was claiming potentially 60-70%, then 5-10%, then <5%, then 1%. In all likelihood it's a sampling bias because only the very sick end up at t

At the start COVID was claiming potentially 60-70%, then 5-10%, then <5%, then 1%. In all likelihood it's a sampling bias because only the very sick end up at the hospital(s) and are tested. I don't think we should worry at all. We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics. You can see yourself https://www.healthline.com/health/worst-disease-outbreaks-history#h-2-n-2 https://www.healthline.com/health/worst-disease-outbreaks-hi... It can happen, but the chances seem vanishingly low. Even the Hong Kong flu outbreak had only a 0.2% fatality rate.

jimbob45 2y ago
We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics. Isn't that the exact story of the Spanish Flu? Low fatality rate at first which then mutated into a horribly fatal strain after the first wave? Isn't that why we took COVID so seriously from the get-go - the fear of mutation?
TylerE 2y ago
We still get regular outbreaks of Ebola, which has a near 100% fatality rate - in fact the fatality rate being so high is actually it's saving grace in a way, as it naturally limits the spread. If, like COVID, it had a several day asymptomatic period, it would wipe out the planet within months. Paralytic polio, which has a fatality rate of 5-10%, is still endemic in parts of Africa and southern Asia. Back in 2002 SARS killed 9.5% (783) of the 8000 people infected with it. So, I call bullshit on "We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics." (and for another thing, most of the really bad infection diseases are viral, not bacterial. Antibiotics do little to nothing).
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  Interesting how you picked the one region where "introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics" is not true. > 100% fatality rate Case fatality rate. > Back in 2002 SARS killed 9.5% (783) of the 8000 people infected with it. Of the identified cases of people infected. > If, like COVID, it had a several day asymptomatic period, it would wipe out the planet within months. Wrong for so many reasons
  - TylerE 2y ago
    Uh, one region? I named 3 continents. One of the countries most affected by SARS was Canada (151 cases, 49 deaths) which is as 1st world and modern as it gets.
    - whimsicalism 2y ago
      for ebola
whimsicalism 2y ago
> We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics. HIV is what obviously comes to mind.
- lettergram 2y ago
  HIV doesn’t kill people, secondary infections do after either the virus or drugs administered kill the person. Regardless, in a given year, less than 1% of people with HIV cited as the underlying cause listed die, far less. Currently, it’s 2/100,000 cases. At its peak, it was 16/100,000 https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/pdf/library/slidesets/cdc-hiv-surveillance-mortality-2019.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/pdf/library/slidesets/cdc-hiv-survei...
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    Right, now that we have HAART. Before treatment was developed, it killed a majority of those infected. The secondary infection thing is a technicality, the mechanism via which someone who has HIV is killed. But it’s not really a misnomer to say the disease is deadly.
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    > Currently, it’s 2/100,000 cases. At its peak, it was 16/100,000 You are misreading the charts you are citing btw, your chart shows close to 100% fatality rate, 16 deaths per 100,000 people (with and without HIV)

jimbob45 2y ago

We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics. Isn't that the exact story of the Spanish Flu? Low fatality rate at first which then mutated into a horribly fatal strain after the first wave? Isn't that why we took COVID so seriously from the get-go - the fear of mutation?

TylerE 2y ago

We still get regular outbreaks of Ebola, which has a near 100% fatality rate - in fact the fatality rate being so high is actually it's saving grace in a way, as it naturally limits the spread. If, like COVID, it had a several day asymptomatic period, it would wipe out the planet within months. Paralytic polio, which has a fatality rate of 5-10%, is still endemic in parts of Africa and southern Asia. Back in 2002 SARS killed 9.5% (783) of the 8000 people infected with it. So, I call bullshit on "We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics." (and for another thing, most of the really bad infection diseases are viral, not bacterial. Antibiotics do little to nothing).

whimsicalism 2y ago
Interesting how you picked the one region where "introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics" is not true. > 100% fatality rate Case fatality rate. > Back in 2002 SARS killed 9.5% (783) of the 8000 people infected with it. Of the identified cases of people infected. > If, like COVID, it had a several day asymptomatic period, it would wipe out the planet within months. Wrong for so many reasons
- TylerE 2y ago
  Uh, one region? I named 3 continents. One of the countries most affected by SARS was Canada (151 cases, 49 deaths) which is as 1st world and modern as it gets.
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    for ebola

whimsicalism 2y ago

> We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics. HIV is what obviously comes to mind.

lettergram 2y ago
HIV doesn’t kill people, secondary infections do after either the virus or drugs administered kill the person. Regardless, in a given year, less than 1% of people with HIV cited as the underlying cause listed die, far less. Currently, it’s 2/100,000 cases. At its peak, it was 16/100,000 https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/pdf/library/slidesets/cdc-hiv-surveillance-mortality-2019.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/pdf/library/slidesets/cdc-hiv-survei...
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  Right, now that we have HAART. Before treatment was developed, it killed a majority of those infected. The secondary infection thing is a technicality, the mechanism via which someone who has HIV is killed. But it’s not really a misnomer to say the disease is deadly.
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  > Currently, it’s 2/100,000 cases. At its peak, it was 16/100,000 You are misreading the charts you are citing btw, your chart shows close to 100% fatality rate, 16 deaths per 100,000 people (with and without HIV)