3 ms·

If we learned anything from covid, it should be that you cannot trust these early mortality numbers because they are biased by the fact that we definitely test

If we learned anything from covid, it should be that you cannot trust these early mortality numbers because they are biased by the fact that we definitely test people who are dying of a disease but don't test those who are just a little sick. Covid turned out to be 1% fatal in the early days - which is awful. But the early numbers were ~5-10%

ecmascript 3y ago
Ok sure, but even if it's 1/5 as bad it's still very bad.
- whimsicalism 3y ago
  I think we just have no remote clue what the denominator is though.
  - ecmascript 3y ago
    True but there are reasons to believe that it's vastly higher than the covid though.
dyauspitr 3y ago
Did it drop to 1% post vaccination or were those figures normalized for that.
- tick_tock_tick 3y ago
  Before, initial reporting showed much higher percents because we massively underestimated how many people got sick but were asymptomatic or had so little symptoms they barely noticed.
  - dyauspitr 3y ago
    Yes but I’m wondering if in addition to that did the vaccination have a massive effect on the those numbers.
    - tick_tock_tick 3y ago
      It had a near 0 or a small rounding from zero effect on overall mortality. Covid rarely, even with co-morbidities, killed people. Vaccinated people had a significantly lower chance of death but the overall death rate was so tiny it basically doesn't move the needle.
      - dyauspitr 3y ago
        I feel like you’re just opining. Do you know this for a fact/have any sources?
ifyoubuildit 3y ago
> Covid turned out to be 1% fatal in the early days Are you sure? Pre vaccine rollout across all ages in USA, I've seen less than .5% IFR, and an order of magnitude less than that if you constrain to ages 0-59. With the inundation of constant bad news that we were under, you'll still find people thinking covid killed 20% of anyone who caught it, and that will probably last forever.
- whimsicalism 3y ago
  Treatments improved even prior to vaccine rollout. I didn't say it was 1% fatal for 0-59 cohort.

ecmascript 3y ago

Ok sure, but even if it's 1/5 as bad it's still very bad.

whimsicalism 3y ago
I think we just have no remote clue what the denominator is though.
- ecmascript 3y ago
  True but there are reasons to believe that it's vastly higher than the covid though.

dyauspitr 3y ago

Did it drop to 1% post vaccination or were those figures normalized for that.

tick_tock_tick 3y ago
Before, initial reporting showed much higher percents because we massively underestimated how many people got sick but were asymptomatic or had so little symptoms they barely noticed.
- dyauspitr 3y ago
  Yes but I’m wondering if in addition to that did the vaccination have a massive effect on the those numbers.
  - tick_tock_tick 3y ago
    It had a near 0 or a small rounding from zero effect on overall mortality. Covid rarely, even with co-morbidities, killed people. Vaccinated people had a significantly lower chance of death but the overall death rate was so tiny it basically doesn't move the needle.
    - dyauspitr 3y ago
      I feel like you’re just opining. Do you know this for a fact/have any sources?

ifyoubuildit 3y ago

> Covid turned out to be 1% fatal in the early days Are you sure? Pre vaccine rollout across all ages in USA, I've seen less than .5% IFR, and an order of magnitude less than that if you constrain to ages 0-59. With the inundation of constant bad news that we were under, you'll still find people thinking covid killed 20% of anyone who caught it, and that will probably last forever.

whimsicalism 3y ago
Treatments improved even prior to vaccine rollout. I didn't say it was 1% fatal for 0-59 cohort.