5 ms·

The risk of dying from covid was probably less than 1% for a healthy adult and it's around 60-70% when it comes to the bird flu. So people will naturally take t

The risk of dying from covid was probably less than 1% for a healthy adult and it's around 60-70% when it comes to the bird flu. So people will naturally take this much more serious if it starts to spread among humans.

whimsicalism 2y ago
If we learned anything from covid, it should be that you cannot trust these early mortality numbers because they are biased by the fact that we definitely test people who are dying of a disease but don't test those who are just a little sick. Covid turned out to be 1% fatal in the early days - which is awful. But the early numbers were ~5-10%
- ecmascript 2y ago
  Ok sure, but even if it's 1/5 as bad it's still very bad.
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    I think we just have no remote clue what the denominator is though.
    - ecmascript 2y ago
      True but there are reasons to believe that it's vastly higher than the covid though.
- dyauspitr 2y ago
  Did it drop to 1% post vaccination or were those figures normalized for that.
  - tick_tock_tick 2y ago
    Before, initial reporting showed much higher percents because we massively underestimated how many people got sick but were asymptomatic or had so little symptoms they barely noticed.
    - dyauspitr 2y ago
      Yes but I’m wondering if in addition to that did the vaccination have a massive effect on the those numbers.
      - tick_tock_tick 2y ago
        It had a near 0 or a small rounding from zero effect on overall mortality. Covid rarely, even with co-morbidities, killed people. Vaccinated people had a significantly lower chance of death but the overall death rate was so tiny it basically doesn't move the needle.
        dyauspitr 2y ago
        I feel like you’re just opining. Do you know this for a fact/have any sources?
- ifyoubuildit 2y ago
  > Covid turned out to be 1% fatal in the early days Are you sure? Pre vaccine rollout across all ages in USA, I've seen less than .5% IFR, and an order of magnitude less than that if you constrain to ages 0-59. With the inundation of constant bad news that we were under, you'll still find people thinking covid killed 20% of anyone who caught it, and that will probably last forever.
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    Treatments improved even prior to vaccine rollout. I didn't say it was 1% fatal for 0-59 cohort.
lettergram 2y ago
At the start COVID was claiming potentially 60-70%, then 5-10%, then <5%, then 1%. In all likelihood it's a sampling bias because only the very sick end up at the hospital(s) and are tested. I don't think we should worry at all. We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics. You can see yourself https://www.healthline.com/health/worst-disease-outbreaks-history#h-2-n-2 https://www.healthline.com/health/worst-disease-outbreaks-hi... It can happen, but the chances seem vanishingly low. Even the Hong Kong flu outbreak had only a 0.2% fatality rate.
- jimbob45 2y ago
  We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics. Isn't that the exact story of the Spanish Flu? Low fatality rate at first which then mutated into a horribly fatal strain after the first wave? Isn't that why we took COVID so seriously from the get-go - the fear of mutation?
- TylerE 2y ago
  We still get regular outbreaks of Ebola, which has a near 100% fatality rate - in fact the fatality rate being so high is actually it's saving grace in a way, as it naturally limits the spread. If, like COVID, it had a several day asymptomatic period, it would wipe out the planet within months. Paralytic polio, which has a fatality rate of 5-10%, is still endemic in parts of Africa and southern Asia. Back in 2002 SARS killed 9.5% (783) of the 8000 people infected with it. So, I call bullshit on "We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics." (and for another thing, most of the really bad infection diseases are viral, not bacterial. Antibiotics do little to nothing).
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    Interesting how you picked the one region where "introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics" is not true. > 100% fatality rate Case fatality rate. > Back in 2002 SARS killed 9.5% (783) of the 8000 people infected with it. Of the identified cases of people infected. > If, like COVID, it had a several day asymptomatic period, it would wipe out the planet within months. Wrong for so many reasons

whimsicalism 2y ago

If we learned anything from covid, it should be that you cannot trust these early mortality numbers because they are biased by the fact that we definitely test people who are dying of a disease but don't test those who are just a little sick. Covid turned out to be 1% fatal in the early days - which is awful. But the early numbers were ~5-10%

ecmascript 2y ago
Ok sure, but even if it's 1/5 as bad it's still very bad.
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  I think we just have no remote clue what the denominator is though.
  - ecmascript 2y ago
    True but there are reasons to believe that it's vastly higher than the covid though.
dyauspitr 2y ago
Did it drop to 1% post vaccination or were those figures normalized for that.
- tick_tock_tick 2y ago
  Before, initial reporting showed much higher percents because we massively underestimated how many people got sick but were asymptomatic or had so little symptoms they barely noticed.
  - dyauspitr 2y ago
    Yes but I’m wondering if in addition to that did the vaccination have a massive effect on the those numbers.
    - tick_tock_tick 2y ago
      It had a near 0 or a small rounding from zero effect on overall mortality. Covid rarely, even with co-morbidities, killed people. Vaccinated people had a significantly lower chance of death but the overall death rate was so tiny it basically doesn't move the needle.
      - dyauspitr 2y ago
        I feel like you’re just opining. Do you know this for a fact/have any sources?
ifyoubuildit 2y ago
> Covid turned out to be 1% fatal in the early days Are you sure? Pre vaccine rollout across all ages in USA, I've seen less than .5% IFR, and an order of magnitude less than that if you constrain to ages 0-59. With the inundation of constant bad news that we were under, you'll still find people thinking covid killed 20% of anyone who caught it, and that will probably last forever.
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  Treatments improved even prior to vaccine rollout. I didn't say it was 1% fatal for 0-59 cohort.

lettergram 2y ago

At the start COVID was claiming potentially 60-70%, then 5-10%, then <5%, then 1%. In all likelihood it's a sampling bias because only the very sick end up at the hospital(s) and are tested. I don't think we should worry at all. We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics. You can see yourself https://www.healthline.com/health/worst-disease-outbreaks-history#h-2-n-2 https://www.healthline.com/health/worst-disease-outbreaks-hi... It can happen, but the chances seem vanishingly low. Even the Hong Kong flu outbreak had only a 0.2% fatality rate.

jimbob45 2y ago
We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics. Isn't that the exact story of the Spanish Flu? Low fatality rate at first which then mutated into a horribly fatal strain after the first wave? Isn't that why we took COVID so seriously from the get-go - the fear of mutation?
TylerE 2y ago
We still get regular outbreaks of Ebola, which has a near 100% fatality rate - in fact the fatality rate being so high is actually it's saving grace in a way, as it naturally limits the spread. If, like COVID, it had a several day asymptomatic period, it would wipe out the planet within months. Paralytic polio, which has a fatality rate of 5-10%, is still endemic in parts of Africa and southern Asia. Back in 2002 SARS killed 9.5% (783) of the 8000 people infected with it. So, I call bullshit on "We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics." (and for another thing, most of the really bad infection diseases are viral, not bacterial. Antibiotics do little to nothing).
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  Interesting how you picked the one region where "introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics" is not true. > 100% fatality rate Case fatality rate. > Back in 2002 SARS killed 9.5% (783) of the 8000 people infected with it. Of the identified cases of people infected. > If, like COVID, it had a several day asymptomatic period, it would wipe out the planet within months. Wrong for so many reasons