3 ms·

There's been no "surge" in immigration, except in the very short term where migration caught up with the backlog due to the pandemic. There was a steady increa

by ajross 3y ago

There's been no "surge" in immigration, except in the very short term where migration caught up with the backlog due to the pandemic. There was a steady increase of the foreign-born population fraction between 1970 and ~2010, and it's been essentially flat since then. This site has a great graph about half way down: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states-2024 https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested... You keep doing this thing where you cite headlines that cover half of your idea and then claiming that they support the whole, and they just don't. Yes, US birth rates are dropping (among both native-born and immigrant populations). No, that doesn't have anything to do with immigration per se, nor is it response to the (correct) point that the population is growing.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
I don't believe that's a fair assessment. You made an assertion, I provided data based on the domestic birth rate and the immigration rate. If there is another component that would lead to population growth, please share, but those are the two levers that lead to a population growth outcome. There absolutely has been a surge in immigration (asylum seekers/economic migrants) recently [1] [2] [3], this is a fact, and the current administration is aware enough to be contemplating taking action to stem it [4]. Your source cites this, snippet below this paragraph. "Recent increases in encounters of asylum seekers and other migrants at U.S. borders reflect a number of factors, including worsening political and economic conditions in origin countries; the uneven repercussions of the pandemic; the war in Ukraine; and the perception that U.S. policy has become more welcoming." We can haggle over what words (immigration) mean, but the numbers are straightforward, are they not? [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-e... [2] https://apnews.com/article/arizona-border-wall-breaches-asylum-immigration-beddd2ca0ffd02884ce0d0ad1785f538 https://apnews.com/article/arizona-border-wall-breaches-asyl... [3] https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-enc... [4] https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/biden-border-executive-order-immigrants-asylum-limit https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/biden-border-executive-orde...
- ajross 3y ago
  > We can haggle over what words (immigration) mean, but the numbers are straightforward, are they not? You literally failed to show numbers showing a surge in immigration though. I provided numbers that show (over a longer time period) the opposite. Trying to proxy another measurement (like "encounters") is analysis. And you're welcome to do it. But you aren't doing that either and are throwing links around instead. Please don't, it cheapens the site. The reason you can't find any links that say what you want them to is because what you believe is wrong, and people who actually do the analysis you're skipping are coming to a different conclusion.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Appreciate the feedback, thanks for the constructive criticism.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Following up on this due to additional information discovered, numbers below as requested. Can you share your thoughts considering our subthread? > There's been no "surge" in immigration, except in the very short term where migration caught up with the backlog due to the pandemic. > You literally failed to show numbers showing a surge in immigration though. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-03/us-jobs-report-to-show-continuing-streak-of-big-employment-gains https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-03/us-jobs-r... | https://archive.today/MSWd3 https://archive.today/MSWd3 > Nonfarm Payrolls: While economists generally see payroll gains stepping down in April from the first quarter’s booming pace, a 240,000 increase would still be above the average pace over the second half of 2023 — and is the most optimistic estimate since October 2022. Many have cited surging immigration as a reason why employment growth remains so strong even at a point in the business cycle when it would be natural to expect slower hiring. > “Elevated immigration boosted labor supply by roughly 80k per month last year, relative to normal, and we expect a continued tailwind averaging 50k per month this year,” Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill wrote in a May 2 note. “Given the still-elevated level of job openings and the ramp-up of the spring hiring season, we assume many of these individuals found jobs during the April survey period, including in the construction and leisure sectors.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/how-immigration-will-boost-the-us-economy-through-strong-hiring-more-housing https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/how-immig... | https://archive.today/0PJzM https://archive.today/0PJzM > The recent surge in immigration to the US has led many economists to boost their forecasts. Now they’re looking for more signs of its impact in the data. > Growth in employment has continually surprised to the upside in recent years, running at a pace formerly deemed as unsustainable. Economists have coalesced around population growth as a key explanation after a recent Congressional Budget Office report estimated higher immigration than previously thought. > With over a million people entering the country each year, it stands to reason that a bigger population will increase demand for housing and a wide range of other goods and services. For now, some of the places forecasters are looking to gauge the impact may not provide obvious answers: consumer spending data, for example, aren’t broken down by demographic.

by ajross 3y ago

toomuchtodo 3y ago

I don't believe that's a fair assessment. You made an assertion, I provided data based on the domestic birth rate and the immigration rate. If there is another component that would lead to population growth, please share, but those are the two levers that lead to a population growth outcome. There absolutely has been a surge in immigration (asylum seekers/economic migrants) recently [1] [2] [3], this is a fact, and the current administration is aware enough to be contemplating taking action to stem it [4]. Your source cites this, snippet below this paragraph. "Recent increases in encounters of asylum seekers and other migrants at U.S. borders reflect a number of factors, including worsening political and economic conditions in origin countries; the uneven repercussions of the pandemic; the war in Ukraine; and the perception that U.S. policy has become more welcoming." We can haggle over what words (immigration) mean, but the numbers are straightforward, are they not? [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-e... [2] https://apnews.com/article/arizona-border-wall-breaches-asylum-immigration-beddd2ca0ffd02884ce0d0ad1785f538 https://apnews.com/article/arizona-border-wall-breaches-asyl... [3] https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-enc... [4] https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/biden-border-executive-order-immigrants-asylum-limit https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/biden-border-executive-orde...

ajross 3y ago
> We can haggle over what words (immigration) mean, but the numbers are straightforward, are they not? You literally failed to show numbers showing a surge in immigration though. I provided numbers that show (over a longer time period) the opposite. Trying to proxy another measurement (like "encounters") is analysis. And you're welcome to do it. But you aren't doing that either and are throwing links around instead. Please don't, it cheapens the site. The reason you can't find any links that say what you want them to is because what you believe is wrong, and people who actually do the analysis you're skipping are coming to a different conclusion.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Appreciate the feedback, thanks for the constructive criticism.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Following up on this due to additional information discovered, numbers below as requested. Can you share your thoughts considering our subthread? > There's been no "surge" in immigration, except in the very short term where migration caught up with the backlog due to the pandemic. > You literally failed to show numbers showing a surge in immigration though. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-03/us-jobs-report-to-show-continuing-streak-of-big-employment-gains https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-03/us-jobs-r... | https://archive.today/MSWd3 https://archive.today/MSWd3 > Nonfarm Payrolls: While economists generally see payroll gains stepping down in April from the first quarter’s booming pace, a 240,000 increase would still be above the average pace over the second half of 2023 — and is the most optimistic estimate since October 2022. Many have cited surging immigration as a reason why employment growth remains so strong even at a point in the business cycle when it would be natural to expect slower hiring. > “Elevated immigration boosted labor supply by roughly 80k per month last year, relative to normal, and we expect a continued tailwind averaging 50k per month this year,” Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill wrote in a May 2 note. “Given the still-elevated level of job openings and the ramp-up of the spring hiring season, we assume many of these individuals found jobs during the April survey period, including in the construction and leisure sectors.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/how-immigration-will-boost-the-us-economy-through-strong-hiring-more-housing https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/how-immig... | https://archive.today/0PJzM https://archive.today/0PJzM > The recent surge in immigration to the US has led many economists to boost their forecasts. Now they’re looking for more signs of its impact in the data. > Growth in employment has continually surprised to the upside in recent years, running at a pace formerly deemed as unsustainable. Economists have coalesced around population growth as a key explanation after a recent Congressional Budget Office report estimated higher immigration than previously thought. > With over a million people entering the country each year, it stands to reason that a bigger population will increase demand for housing and a wide range of other goods and services. For now, some of the places forecasters are looking to gauge the impact may not provide obvious answers: consumer spending data, for example, aren’t broken down by demographic.