4 ms·

Actuarial table says death from all causes at 45 is ~0.4%. It's an unlikely death, paired with another unlikely death - the previous Boeing whistleblower. I'm

Actuarial table says death from all causes at 45 is ~0.4%. It's an unlikely death, paired with another unlikely death - the previous Boeing whistleblower. I'm really confused by the reporter's attitude. It seems like the exact opposite attitude from what you'd want in a reporter. He seems to be dismissing the unusual coincidence based on... I guess nothing? Just "come on, you can't believe that - we aren't Russia." How many Boeing whistleblowers are there? How many should we expect will die by chance this year? If another one dies is that the cutoff where it's reasonable to be suspicious? I don't understand why I would extend any courtesy to Boeing. I was suspicious when the first whistleblower died. Why shouldn't I be? You may be a perfectly nice guy, but if the witnesses testifying against you start dying, I'm going to be suspicious. Why should I treat Boeing any differently?

carabiner 2y ago
Check your priors. What's your base rate likelihood for a person dying from: * suicide (many documented cases) * infectious diseases (ditto) * corporate assassinations (zero cases in the US documented) Everyone thinking Boeing is carrying out killings that have minimal potential upside and massive downside is succumbing to some cloak and dagger deus ex machina. After age 40 people die from all sorts of causes. This is not about "courtesy," but rational thinking that there would be almost no point in killing an employee when the company is already mired in bad news and that corporate assassinations just don't happen in the US.
- darth_avocado 2y ago
  > corporate assassinations (zero cases in the US documented) That's the whole point of corporate assassinations isn't it, get rid of people without raising suspicions.
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    But the chances of them being both a) widespread and b) perfectly gotten away with is pretty slim. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EBay_stalking_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EBay_stalking_scandal doesn't inspire confidence in big corporate cospiracies, heh.
- jjk166 2y ago
  Zero documented cases of corporate assasinations in the US? https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdga/pr/two-sentenced-their-roles-murder-man-who-blew-whistle-illegal-labor-conspiracy https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdga/pr/two-sentenced-their-rol... Homicide is a top 10 leading cause of death for americans in their mid 40s.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
XorNot 2y ago
"It was definitely a murder to create a chilling effect on whistleblowers" says a guy on the internet, pushing a narrative that if you whistleblow on Boeing you'll definitely be murdered. What effect do you imagine that might have?
mzs 2y ago
One in four people being treated for MRSA are dead within a month.
- ALittleLight 2y ago
  Okay. How many 45 year olds get MRSA?
tom_ 2y ago
The reporter does not want his wife, children or other family members to commit suicide or fall ill and die.
- carabiner 2y ago
  Gates has been reporting news critical of Boeing for 20+ years. He is not a fanboy and never has been. They probably should have taken him out long ago.
  - gitaarik 2y ago
    Taking down a big name has many more risks, and costs a lot more money. And a outside critic is different from an inside wisleblower.
shadowgovt 2y ago
There are still a lot of unanswered questions around the first death. In a post-COVID world, a 45-year-old dying of a respiratory infection isn't at all surprising. I concur with the reporter's assessment that more evidence of foul play before open accusations is warranted in this second case.
- ALittleLight 2y ago
  Yes, it is surprising. As I mentioned, 0.4% chance of death for a 45 year old man from all causes. That's surprising. Unexplained rapid onset respiratory disease to MRSA to dead is also surprising. More evidence is needed - that depends what you mean. Needed for what? Conviction? Arrest? Sure. Suspicion and investigation? No.
  - shadowgovt 2y ago
    > from all causes Thing is... This isn't "all causes," nor is a 45-year-old aerospace employee a perfectly-spherical unit human. Adjust the Bayesian priors. I've had relatives who worked in manufacturing. Note the past-tense. The things it can do to a person's respiration and cardiovascular system are... Not pretty. Especially if, say, they were working for a company with a history of dodgy behavior (because if they're putting product out to paying customers that sucks, are they really providing their front-line crew all the PPE that is required to keep them healthy?). So a 45-year-old who put 20 years in at a place that, let's hypothesize, isn't controlling for silica dust the way OSHA demands, gets a flu during flu season, and down they go? Especially when we don't yet know what the long-term effects of exposure to COVID are (even with vaccination)? Too many variables to be suspicious of direct malice. But, probably enough to warrant OSHA making a snap inspection of Spirit to count the respirators and check the filter expiration dates...

carabiner 2y ago

Check your priors. What's your base rate likelihood for a person dying from: * suicide (many documented cases) * infectious diseases (ditto) * corporate assassinations (zero cases in the US documented) Everyone thinking Boeing is carrying out killings that have minimal potential upside and massive downside is succumbing to some cloak and dagger deus ex machina. After age 40 people die from all sorts of causes. This is not about "courtesy," but rational thinking that there would be almost no point in killing an employee when the company is already mired in bad news and that corporate assassinations just don't happen in the US.

darth_avocado 2y ago
> corporate assassinations (zero cases in the US documented) That's the whole point of corporate assassinations isn't it, get rid of people without raising suspicions.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  But the chances of them being both a) widespread and b) perfectly gotten away with is pretty slim. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EBay_stalking_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EBay_stalking_scandal doesn't inspire confidence in big corporate cospiracies, heh.
jjk166 2y ago
Zero documented cases of corporate assasinations in the US? https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdga/pr/two-sentenced-their-roles-murder-man-who-blew-whistle-illegal-labor-conspiracy https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdga/pr/two-sentenced-their-rol... Homicide is a top 10 leading cause of death for americans in their mid 40s.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

XorNot 2y ago

"It was definitely a murder to create a chilling effect on whistleblowers" says a guy on the internet, pushing a narrative that if you whistleblow on Boeing you'll definitely be murdered. What effect do you imagine that might have?

mzs 2y ago

One in four people being treated for MRSA are dead within a month.

ALittleLight 2y ago
Okay. How many 45 year olds get MRSA?

tom_ 2y ago

The reporter does not want his wife, children or other family members to commit suicide or fall ill and die.

carabiner 2y ago
Gates has been reporting news critical of Boeing for 20+ years. He is not a fanboy and never has been. They probably should have taken him out long ago.
- gitaarik 2y ago
  Taking down a big name has many more risks, and costs a lot more money. And a outside critic is different from an inside wisleblower.

shadowgovt 2y ago

There are still a lot of unanswered questions around the first death. In a post-COVID world, a 45-year-old dying of a respiratory infection isn't at all surprising. I concur with the reporter's assessment that more evidence of foul play before open accusations is warranted in this second case.

ALittleLight 2y ago
Yes, it is surprising. As I mentioned, 0.4% chance of death for a 45 year old man from all causes. That's surprising. Unexplained rapid onset respiratory disease to MRSA to dead is also surprising. More evidence is needed - that depends what you mean. Needed for what? Conviction? Arrest? Sure. Suspicion and investigation? No.
- shadowgovt 2y ago
  > from all causes Thing is... This isn't "all causes," nor is a 45-year-old aerospace employee a perfectly-spherical unit human. Adjust the Bayesian priors. I've had relatives who worked in manufacturing. Note the past-tense. The things it can do to a person's respiration and cardiovascular system are... Not pretty. Especially if, say, they were working for a company with a history of dodgy behavior (because if they're putting product out to paying customers that sucks, are they really providing their front-line crew all the PPE that is required to keep them healthy?). So a 45-year-old who put 20 years in at a place that, let's hypothesize, isn't controlling for silica dust the way OSHA demands, gets a flu during flu season, and down they go? Especially when we don't yet know what the long-term effects of exposure to COVID are (even with vaccination)? Too many variables to be suspicious of direct malice. But, probably enough to warrant OSHA making a snap inspection of Spirit to count the respirators and check the filter expiration dates...