4 ms·

Do you really think Tesla is going bankrupt? 90 billion in revenue, 10 billion in profit seems healthy? In terms of market share Tesla sold more than Chevrolet,

by chefkd 2y ago

Do you really think Tesla is going bankrupt? 90 billion in revenue, 10 billion in profit seems healthy? In terms of market share Tesla sold more than Chevrolet, Ford and Volkswagen combined. Granted idk much about valuations just curious what people look at is it something to do with the stock price itself?

supportengineer 2y ago
They won't sustain 90 billion in revenue going forward, based on Elon's antics, including the recent mass layoffs.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
nwiswell 2y ago
Right, it's just the stock price. The health of the underlying company is a different matter. From a corporate financials perspective, Tesla is a very healthy company: low debt, high profit. Their stock does seem to be at risk of dramatic re-pricing, and that can have knock-on effects in the long run (harder to use stock as compensation, high performers with unvested grants may leave, etc). But certainly bankruptcy does not seem to be in the cards.
toomuchtodo 2y ago
Anything is possible when an enterprise is being operated in a careless fashion. I would like to think someone would stop the bleeding before it got to that, but who knows! I think Tesla will be fine was my point, but Elon's Tesla wealth and control is in peril. (disclosure: early TSLA investor, no current exposure because I like to sleep at night now)
- chefkd 2y ago
  That's so cool if it isn't weird to ask are there any current early stage companies you think have the potential to become like Tesla? Asking for a friend :)
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Not weird, fair question. I think we're past the point of early stage investment for electric mobility based on adoption s-curve concept. You'd be chasing copycats into a market with insane capital requirements, with teams who are not as motivated as who has been successful so far. Tesla, BYD, US legacy auto combined are already moving with speed. If you're asking very broadly "where would you invest early stage today to realize explosive investment growth due to the size or value of the total addressable market," I don't have a specific company or domain answer to that. Speculative investments have a domain expertise component (know what you're investing in), a timing component (being early or late is the same as being wrong, see Webvan circa 1996-2001 vs Amazon), and a luck component (you can do everything right and the trade moves against you through no fault of your own). Charlie Munger once said: “You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.” ... “You should remember that good ideas are rare — when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.” So, to maximize success, know how to spot opportunity when it crosses your path, maximize those opportunities, and maximize exposure at the opportunity. Being lucky doesn't hurt. Good luck. (not investing advice, i am just an internet rando)
daveguy 2y ago
Tesla sold more electric cars than they did combined. In terms of total vehicles, they didn't sell more than any one of them.
- chefkd 2y ago
  valid the big 10 traditional automakers still rule supreme in terms of total car sales but from a climate change and geopolitical POV (less reliance oil would mean less reliance on energy rich nations and adversaries like Russia and the Gulf States) wouldn't it be a safe bet to say Tesla is positioned to profit off that? even with tumultuous leadership
  - daveguy 2y ago
    Definitely agreed they are in a great position to take advantage of the electric push. But if they are in tumult while the traditional auto makers are ramping up their production and refining their offerings, Tesla could lose that position. That said, this does seem like a good move from a business perspective. They already simplified carriage construction. Single-body casting may have diminishing returns.
    - DennisP 2y ago
      Lately the traditional auto makers have been ramping down their BEV production. Besides less competition, extra benefits to Tesla include battery prices going down and more income from selling regulatory credits.
      - daveguy 2y ago
        I would love to see your source for auto makers ramping down BEV production. Because according to this only a few manufacturers have had reductions in sales Q1 2024 (Tesla being one of them) and other than the most recent quarter almost all had increases: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and... Not sure why they would be reducing production. Growth is strong across the board.

by chefkd 2y ago

supportengineer 2y ago

They won't sustain 90 billion in revenue going forward, based on Elon's antics, including the recent mass layoffs.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

nwiswell 2y ago

Right, it's just the stock price. The health of the underlying company is a different matter. From a corporate financials perspective, Tesla is a very healthy company: low debt, high profit. Their stock does seem to be at risk of dramatic re-pricing, and that can have knock-on effects in the long run (harder to use stock as compensation, high performers with unvested grants may leave, etc). But certainly bankruptcy does not seem to be in the cards.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

Anything is possible when an enterprise is being operated in a careless fashion. I would like to think someone would stop the bleeding before it got to that, but who knows! I think Tesla will be fine was my point, but Elon's Tesla wealth and control is in peril. (disclosure: early TSLA investor, no current exposure because I like to sleep at night now)

chefkd 2y ago
That's so cool if it isn't weird to ask are there any current early stage companies you think have the potential to become like Tesla? Asking for a friend :)
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Not weird, fair question. I think we're past the point of early stage investment for electric mobility based on adoption s-curve concept. You'd be chasing copycats into a market with insane capital requirements, with teams who are not as motivated as who has been successful so far. Tesla, BYD, US legacy auto combined are already moving with speed. If you're asking very broadly "where would you invest early stage today to realize explosive investment growth due to the size or value of the total addressable market," I don't have a specific company or domain answer to that. Speculative investments have a domain expertise component (know what you're investing in), a timing component (being early or late is the same as being wrong, see Webvan circa 1996-2001 vs Amazon), and a luck component (you can do everything right and the trade moves against you through no fault of your own). Charlie Munger once said: “You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.” ... “You should remember that good ideas are rare — when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.” So, to maximize success, know how to spot opportunity when it crosses your path, maximize those opportunities, and maximize exposure at the opportunity. Being lucky doesn't hurt. Good luck. (not investing advice, i am just an internet rando)

daveguy 2y ago

Tesla sold more electric cars than they did combined. In terms of total vehicles, they didn't sell more than any one of them.

chefkd 2y ago
valid the big 10 traditional automakers still rule supreme in terms of total car sales but from a climate change and geopolitical POV (less reliance oil would mean less reliance on energy rich nations and adversaries like Russia and the Gulf States) wouldn't it be a safe bet to say Tesla is positioned to profit off that? even with tumultuous leadership
- daveguy 2y ago
  Definitely agreed they are in a great position to take advantage of the electric push. But if they are in tumult while the traditional auto makers are ramping up their production and refining their offerings, Tesla could lose that position. That said, this does seem like a good move from a business perspective. They already simplified carriage construction. Single-body casting may have diminishing returns.
  - DennisP 2y ago
    Lately the traditional auto makers have been ramping down their BEV production. Besides less competition, extra benefits to Tesla include battery prices going down and more income from selling regulatory credits.
    - daveguy 2y ago
      I would love to see your source for auto makers ramping down BEV production. Because according to this only a few manufacturers have had reductions in sales Q1 2024 (Tesla being one of them) and other than the most recent quarter almost all had increases: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and... Not sure why they would be reducing production. Growth is strong across the board.