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The problem is inflation isn't coming down, why the concern for deflation? Edit: think I misread your comment. You're not referencing the current deflation in

The problem is inflation isn't coming down, why the concern for deflation? Edit: think I misread your comment. You're not referencing the current deflation in Japan but rather some inflation in the past?

ajross 2y ago
Because it reinforces a prior. It's absolutely amazing the extent to which people who Really Want the Economy to Be Bad will jump between contradictory arguments. When inflation was high it was clearly due to spending, when it came down it was clearly not coming down enough. "Stagflation" is a particularly weird direction to take, as by definition it requires a contraction of the economy ("less stuff to buy with the same money supply == inflation"), and both GDP and population growth remain positive in the USA.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  You are correct that population growth is positive in the US, but most recently it has been to a surge in immigration and the growth has been very mild. Whether population growth remains will be a function of immigration policy and enforcement in the near term. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-census-estimates-show-a-tepid-rise-in-u-s-population-growth-buoyed-by-immigration/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-census-estimates-show... ("Brookings: New census estimates show a tepid rise in U.S. population growth, buoyed by immigration") https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/us-births-drop-2023 https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/us-births-drop-2023 ("The U.S. fertility rate in 2023 amounted to about 1.62 births per woman — well below the "replacement rate" of 2.1 that would allow a generation to completely replace itself.")
  - ajross 2y ago
    There's been no "surge" in immigration, except in the very short term where migration caught up with the backlog due to the pandemic. There was a steady increase of the foreign-born population fraction between 1970 and ~2010, and it's been essentially flat since then. This site has a great graph about half way down: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states-2024 https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested... You keep doing this thing where you cite headlines that cover half of your idea and then claiming that they support the whole, and they just don't. Yes, US birth rates are dropping (among both native-born and immigrant populations). No, that doesn't have anything to do with immigration per se, nor is it response to the (correct) point that the population is growing.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      I don't believe that's a fair assessment. You made an assertion, I provided data based on the domestic birth rate and the immigration rate. If there is another component that would lead to population growth, please share, but those are the two levers that lead to a population growth outcome. There absolutely has been a surge in immigration (asylum seekers/economic migrants) recently [1] [2] [3], this is a fact, and the current administration is aware enough to be contemplating taking action to stem it [4]. Your source cites this, snippet below this paragraph. "Recent increases in encounters of asylum seekers and other migrants at U.S. borders reflect a number of factors, including worsening political and economic conditions in origin countries; the uneven repercussions of the pandemic; the war in Ukraine; and the perception that U.S. policy has become more welcoming." We can haggle over what words (immigration) mean, but the numbers are straightforward, are they not? [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-e... [2] https://apnews.com/article/arizona-border-wall-breaches-asylum-immigration-beddd2ca0ffd02884ce0d0ad1785f538 https://apnews.com/article/arizona-border-wall-breaches-asyl... [3] https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-enc... [4] https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/biden-border-executive-order-immigrants-asylum-limit https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/biden-border-executive-orde...
      - ajross 2y ago
        > We can haggle over what words (immigration) mean, but the numbers are straightforward, are they not? You literally failed to show numbers showing a surge in immigration though. I provided numbers that show (over a longer time period) the opposite. Trying to proxy another measurement (like "encounters") is analysis. And you're welcome to do it. But you aren't doing that either and are throwing links around instead. Please don't, it cheapens the site. The reason you can't find any links that say what you want them to is because what you believe is wrong, and people who actually do the analysis you're skipping are coming to a different conclusion.
        2y ago

ajross 2y ago

Because it reinforces a prior. It's absolutely amazing the extent to which people who Really Want the Economy to Be Bad will jump between contradictory arguments. When inflation was high it was clearly due to spending, when it came down it was clearly not coming down enough. "Stagflation" is a particularly weird direction to take, as by definition it requires a contraction of the economy ("less stuff to buy with the same money supply == inflation"), and both GDP and population growth remain positive in the USA.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
You are correct that population growth is positive in the US, but most recently it has been to a surge in immigration and the growth has been very mild. Whether population growth remains will be a function of immigration policy and enforcement in the near term. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-census-estimates-show-a-tepid-rise-in-u-s-population-growth-buoyed-by-immigration/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-census-estimates-show... ("Brookings: New census estimates show a tepid rise in U.S. population growth, buoyed by immigration") https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/us-births-drop-2023 https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/us-births-drop-2023 ("The U.S. fertility rate in 2023 amounted to about 1.62 births per woman — well below the "replacement rate" of 2.1 that would allow a generation to completely replace itself.")
- ajross 2y ago
  There's been no "surge" in immigration, except in the very short term where migration caught up with the backlog due to the pandemic. There was a steady increase of the foreign-born population fraction between 1970 and ~2010, and it's been essentially flat since then. This site has a great graph about half way down: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states-2024 https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested... You keep doing this thing where you cite headlines that cover half of your idea and then claiming that they support the whole, and they just don't. Yes, US birth rates are dropping (among both native-born and immigrant populations). No, that doesn't have anything to do with immigration per se, nor is it response to the (correct) point that the population is growing.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    I don't believe that's a fair assessment. You made an assertion, I provided data based on the domestic birth rate and the immigration rate. If there is another component that would lead to population growth, please share, but those are the two levers that lead to a population growth outcome. There absolutely has been a surge in immigration (asylum seekers/economic migrants) recently [1] [2] [3], this is a fact, and the current administration is aware enough to be contemplating taking action to stem it [4]. Your source cites this, snippet below this paragraph. "Recent increases in encounters of asylum seekers and other migrants at U.S. borders reflect a number of factors, including worsening political and economic conditions in origin countries; the uneven repercussions of the pandemic; the war in Ukraine; and the perception that U.S. policy has become more welcoming." We can haggle over what words (immigration) mean, but the numbers are straightforward, are they not? [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-e... [2] https://apnews.com/article/arizona-border-wall-breaches-asylum-immigration-beddd2ca0ffd02884ce0d0ad1785f538 https://apnews.com/article/arizona-border-wall-breaches-asyl... [3] https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-enc... [4] https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/biden-border-executive-order-immigrants-asylum-limit https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/biden-border-executive-orde...
    - ajross 2y ago
      > We can haggle over what words (immigration) mean, but the numbers are straightforward, are they not? You literally failed to show numbers showing a surge in immigration though. I provided numbers that show (over a longer time period) the opposite. Trying to proxy another measurement (like "encounters") is analysis. And you're welcome to do it. But you aren't doing that either and are throwing links around instead. Please don't, it cheapens the site. The reason you can't find any links that say what you want them to is because what you believe is wrong, and people who actually do the analysis you're skipping are coming to a different conclusion.
      - 2y ago