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You can’t policy your way out of a shrinking workforce.

by mensetmanusman 3y ago

robotnikman 3y ago
And yet plenty of people I know are struggling to get a job in their field...
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  The fields are rearranging. Elderly and hospice care is where growth is at.
  - delfinom 3y ago
    Minimum wage jobs where you are treated like dirt?
  - bcrosby95 3y ago
    And you make shit money there too. Unless you're at the top sucking everyone dry.
    - jrs235 3y ago
      Which is why we need [stronger] unions and protections.
- silverquiet 3y ago
  Does their field include sitting in a comfortable chair in an air-conditioned office (perhaps even in their home)? Those seem to be pretty tough to get.
- ajross 3y ago
  "In their field" is probably the magic to that sentence. Cobblers, blacksmiths and habberdashers have it rough too. Economies change. It's absolutely true that there are people coming out of school with humanities degrees that in previous generations would have guaranteed them a professional career, and finding they don't any more. But then there aren't nearly enough nursing graduates, and those of us here in the tech community are living way beyond what our parents would have expected from a "computer?!" education. And come next generation, we may find that some of us have been replaced by AI and our kids will want training in prompt engineering or whatever. But "no job in my field" isn't the same as "no reasonable job available".
  - frumper 3y ago
    Nursing programs are very difficult to get into. It isn't a case where a student chooses nursing over humanities and that adds an extra nurse to the field. It's a case where getting into a nursing program just displaces someone else. "The waitlist for Ventura College’s nursing program sits at four-and-a-half years, according to Sandra Melton, the director of the school of nursing and allied health. The nursing school at Cal State Fullerton had to decide which of 8,000 applicants would take 100 available spots in its fall 2023 entering class" https://calmatters.org/education/higher-education/college-beat/2023/03/california-nursing-school/ https://calmatters.org/education/higher-education/college-be...
ajross 3y ago
The workforce isn't shrinking: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV (Well, unless you deliberately spin the numbers: there was indeed a local peak in November of last year that we haven't quite reached yet, so technically it's been "shrinking" over the last four data points. But then it's been "growing" over 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7...)
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-workers https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-wor... https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic-health-care-teachers-police https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic... https://www.axios.com/2022/01/21/workers-labor-market-hiring https://www.axios.com/2022/01/21/workers-labor-market-hiring 1.8M people in the US over the age of 55 die every year. Roughly have of that cohort are in the labor force. 3.6M baby boomers retire every year, 10k per day. 4M people turn 18 every year, slowly aging into labor force participation.
  - ajross 3y ago
    Where in that article does it refute the fact that the labor force is growing? Long term demographic trends don't explain local economic effects. You can't get inflation today from an expected labor shortage in 2030 or whatever.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      There aren’t enough workers today. It’s why unemployment is at historic lows at the current benchmark rate. Raise the rate all you want, there is a minimum floor of labor needed regardless of the cost of capital. There are still ~8.5 million open jobs as of this comment, the lowest amount in 3 years, but still 8 million openings while workers are still rapidly leaving the participation rate. Fed will eventually fold on 2-2.5% being the target rate. Closer to 3-4% neutral rate factoring in structural changes. Gotta save face and prove you tried. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-labor-costs-increase-more-than-expected-first-quarter-2024-04-30/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-labor-costs-increase-m... ("Growth in US labor costs accelerates in first quarter") https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/neutral-rate-debate-resurfaces-us-economy-refuses-crack-mike-dolan-2024-02-07/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/neutral-rate-debate-resur... ("Neutral rate debate resurfaces as US economy refuses to crack")
ars 3y ago
According to an analysis I read the real issue is too much Government spending which is driving the economy. The Fed is trying to slow the economy while the White House is trying to stoke it. The Fed reached their limits on what they can do, and we need to the White House to slow down.

You can’t policy your way out of a shrinking workforce.

robotnikman 3y ago

And yet plenty of people I know are struggling to get a job in their field...

mensetmanusman 3y ago
The fields are rearranging. Elderly and hospice care is where growth is at.
- delfinom 3y ago
  Minimum wage jobs where you are treated like dirt?
- bcrosby95 3y ago
  And you make shit money there too. Unless you're at the top sucking everyone dry.
  - jrs235 3y ago
    Which is why we need [stronger] unions and protections.
silverquiet 3y ago
Does their field include sitting in a comfortable chair in an air-conditioned office (perhaps even in their home)? Those seem to be pretty tough to get.
ajross 3y ago
"In their field" is probably the magic to that sentence. Cobblers, blacksmiths and habberdashers have it rough too. Economies change. It's absolutely true that there are people coming out of school with humanities degrees that in previous generations would have guaranteed them a professional career, and finding they don't any more. But then there aren't nearly enough nursing graduates, and those of us here in the tech community are living way beyond what our parents would have expected from a "computer?!" education. And come next generation, we may find that some of us have been replaced by AI and our kids will want training in prompt engineering or whatever. But "no job in my field" isn't the same as "no reasonable job available".
- frumper 3y ago
  Nursing programs are very difficult to get into. It isn't a case where a student chooses nursing over humanities and that adds an extra nurse to the field. It's a case where getting into a nursing program just displaces someone else. "The waitlist for Ventura College’s nursing program sits at four-and-a-half years, according to Sandra Melton, the director of the school of nursing and allied health. The nursing school at Cal State Fullerton had to decide which of 8,000 applicants would take 100 available spots in its fall 2023 entering class" https://calmatters.org/education/higher-education/college-beat/2023/03/california-nursing-school/ https://calmatters.org/education/higher-education/college-be...

ajross 3y ago

The workforce isn't shrinking: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV (Well, unless you deliberately spin the numbers: there was indeed a local peak in November of last year that we haven't quite reached yet, so technically it's been "shrinking" over the last four data points. But then it's been "growing" over 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7...)

toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-workers https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-wor... https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic-health-care-teachers-police https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic... https://www.axios.com/2022/01/21/workers-labor-market-hiring https://www.axios.com/2022/01/21/workers-labor-market-hiring 1.8M people in the US over the age of 55 die every year. Roughly have of that cohort are in the labor force. 3.6M baby boomers retire every year, 10k per day. 4M people turn 18 every year, slowly aging into labor force participation.
- ajross 3y ago
  Where in that article does it refute the fact that the labor force is growing? Long term demographic trends don't explain local economic effects. You can't get inflation today from an expected labor shortage in 2030 or whatever.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    There aren’t enough workers today. It’s why unemployment is at historic lows at the current benchmark rate. Raise the rate all you want, there is a minimum floor of labor needed regardless of the cost of capital. There are still ~8.5 million open jobs as of this comment, the lowest amount in 3 years, but still 8 million openings while workers are still rapidly leaving the participation rate. Fed will eventually fold on 2-2.5% being the target rate. Closer to 3-4% neutral rate factoring in structural changes. Gotta save face and prove you tried. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-labor-costs-increase-more-than-expected-first-quarter-2024-04-30/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-labor-costs-increase-m... ("Growth in US labor costs accelerates in first quarter") https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/neutral-rate-debate-resurfaces-us-economy-refuses-crack-mike-dolan-2024-02-07/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/neutral-rate-debate-resur... ("Neutral rate debate resurfaces as US economy refuses to crack")

ars 3y ago

According to an analysis I read the real issue is too much Government spending which is driving the economy. The Fed is trying to slow the economy while the White House is trying to stoke it. The Fed reached their limits on what they can do, and we need to the White House to slow down.