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Also, I get the feeling Elon's trip to China and the deal he made was out of desperation. Watch for self-driving technology, that's bug for bug identical to Tes

Also, I get the feeling Elon's trip to China and the deal he made was out of desperation. Watch for self-driving technology, that's bug for bug identical to Tesla's, to start showing up in the Chinese EVs.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Tesla is in a valuation trap. Elon can only continue operating as he has if Tesla is valued as “not a car company.” AI, robotaxi, whatever. They are running out of runway from a valuation perspective, although Tesla would be fine going through Chapter 11 if needed. Would continue as a going concern and not be parted out imho. But Elon’s wings would melt and he’d fall back to Earth.
- vizzier 3y ago
  The craziest part to me of this idea of their valuation is being a tech company not a car is that the stock jumped 20% on ... news that they're going to release an affordable car? None of it makes any sense.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Jumped on the China data sharing deal with Baidu for FSD. https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-tesla-agree-mapping-deal-fsd-china-sources-say-2024-04-29/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-tesla-agree-mapping...
    - Workaccount2 3y ago
      Which is insane, because the market priced that news as being a ~$100 billion in value. The people trading Tesla are so far removed from reality its scary.
- chefkd 3y ago
  Do you really think Tesla is going bankrupt? 90 billion in revenue, 10 billion in profit seems healthy? In terms of market share Tesla sold more than Chevrolet, Ford and Volkswagen combined. Granted idk much about valuations just curious what people look at is it something to do with the stock price itself?
  - supportengineer 3y ago
    They won't sustain 90 billion in revenue going forward, based on Elon's antics, including the recent mass layoffs.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
  - nwiswell 3y ago
    Right, it's just the stock price. The health of the underlying company is a different matter. From a corporate financials perspective, Tesla is a very healthy company: low debt, high profit. Their stock does seem to be at risk of dramatic re-pricing, and that can have knock-on effects in the long run (harder to use stock as compensation, high performers with unvested grants may leave, etc). But certainly bankruptcy does not seem to be in the cards.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Anything is possible when an enterprise is being operated in a careless fashion. I would like to think someone would stop the bleeding before it got to that, but who knows! I think Tesla will be fine was my point, but Elon's Tesla wealth and control is in peril. (disclosure: early TSLA investor, no current exposure because I like to sleep at night now)
    - chefkd 3y ago
      That's so cool if it isn't weird to ask are there any current early stage companies you think have the potential to become like Tesla? Asking for a friend :)
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        Not weird, fair question. I think we're past the point of early stage investment for electric mobility based on adoption s-curve concept. You'd be chasing copycats into a market with insane capital requirements, with teams who are not as motivated as who has been successful so far. Tesla, BYD, US legacy auto combined are already moving with speed. If you're asking very broadly "where would you invest early stage today to realize explosive investment growth due to the size or value of the total addressable market," I don't have a specific company or domain answer to that. Speculative investments have a domain expertise component (know what you're investing in), a timing component (being early or late is the same as being wrong, see Webvan circa 1996-2001 vs Amazon), and a luck component (you can do everything right and the trade moves against you through no fault of your own). Charlie Munger once said: “You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.” ... “You should remember that good ideas are rare — when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.” So, to maximize success, know how to spot opportunity when it crosses your path, maximize those opportunities, and maximize exposure at the opportunity. Being lucky doesn't hurt. Good luck. (not investing advice, i am just an internet rando)
- nickfromseattle 3y ago
  Did he leverage any of his Tesla stock to buy Twitter?
  - pclmulqdq 3y ago
    Yes. And his Tesla stock was reportedly very heavily leveraged already, which made the banks a bit hesitant.
Theodores 3y ago
I don't feel that Europe or the USA is where any growth can come from, aside for Cybertruck, which is North America only. Anyone middle class would have had one by now and poor people are not customers. In China they are getting crowded out by brands that better understand the local market, for example rear leg room at the cost of vehicle length/handling. They also have lots of self driving solutions that have no chance of making it to the West any time soon. Chinese people also like Chinese brands. American does not mean better. The honeymoon for Western brands is over. With PCs, why would a sensible Chinese person buy some HP or Dell thing when Huawei have that extra touch of quality to them at a better price? Tesla along with GM's Buick, VW and the others making e-cars have this problem.
- m463 3y ago
  I don't feel that Europe or the USA is where any growth can come from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timeline_of_production_and_sales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timelin... I think they're growing just fine. looking at the quarterly breakdown, sales stall every so often, but pick up later. Sort of like California real estate prices. People always say it can't go on, but it does.
jamesy0ung 3y ago
He was actually booked to go to India to announce a new factory, but he cancelled it at last minute to go to China [1]. [1] https://m.economictimes.com/industry/renewables/why-elon-musk-chose-to-go-to-china-rather-than-visit-india/amp_articleshow/109715183.cms https://m.economictimes.com/industry/renewables/why-elon-mus...

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Tesla is in a valuation trap. Elon can only continue operating as he has if Tesla is valued as “not a car company.” AI, robotaxi, whatever. They are running out of runway from a valuation perspective, although Tesla would be fine going through Chapter 11 if needed. Would continue as a going concern and not be parted out imho. But Elon’s wings would melt and he’d fall back to Earth.

vizzier 3y ago
The craziest part to me of this idea of their valuation is being a tech company not a car is that the stock jumped 20% on ... news that they're going to release an affordable car? None of it makes any sense.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Jumped on the China data sharing deal with Baidu for FSD. https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-tesla-agree-mapping-deal-fsd-china-sources-say-2024-04-29/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-tesla-agree-mapping...
  - Workaccount2 3y ago
    Which is insane, because the market priced that news as being a ~$100 billion in value. The people trading Tesla are so far removed from reality its scary.
chefkd 3y ago
Do you really think Tesla is going bankrupt? 90 billion in revenue, 10 billion in profit seems healthy? In terms of market share Tesla sold more than Chevrolet, Ford and Volkswagen combined. Granted idk much about valuations just curious what people look at is it something to do with the stock price itself?
- supportengineer 3y ago
  They won't sustain 90 billion in revenue going forward, based on Elon's antics, including the recent mass layoffs.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- nwiswell 3y ago
  Right, it's just the stock price. The health of the underlying company is a different matter. From a corporate financials perspective, Tesla is a very healthy company: low debt, high profit. Their stock does seem to be at risk of dramatic re-pricing, and that can have knock-on effects in the long run (harder to use stock as compensation, high performers with unvested grants may leave, etc). But certainly bankruptcy does not seem to be in the cards.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Anything is possible when an enterprise is being operated in a careless fashion. I would like to think someone would stop the bleeding before it got to that, but who knows! I think Tesla will be fine was my point, but Elon's Tesla wealth and control is in peril. (disclosure: early TSLA investor, no current exposure because I like to sleep at night now)
  - chefkd 3y ago
    That's so cool if it isn't weird to ask are there any current early stage companies you think have the potential to become like Tesla? Asking for a friend :)
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      Not weird, fair question. I think we're past the point of early stage investment for electric mobility based on adoption s-curve concept. You'd be chasing copycats into a market with insane capital requirements, with teams who are not as motivated as who has been successful so far. Tesla, BYD, US legacy auto combined are already moving with speed. If you're asking very broadly "where would you invest early stage today to realize explosive investment growth due to the size or value of the total addressable market," I don't have a specific company or domain answer to that. Speculative investments have a domain expertise component (know what you're investing in), a timing component (being early or late is the same as being wrong, see Webvan circa 1996-2001 vs Amazon), and a luck component (you can do everything right and the trade moves against you through no fault of your own). Charlie Munger once said: “You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.” ... “You should remember that good ideas are rare — when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.” So, to maximize success, know how to spot opportunity when it crosses your path, maximize those opportunities, and maximize exposure at the opportunity. Being lucky doesn't hurt. Good luck. (not investing advice, i am just an internet rando)
nickfromseattle 3y ago
Did he leverage any of his Tesla stock to buy Twitter?
- pclmulqdq 3y ago
  Yes. And his Tesla stock was reportedly very heavily leveraged already, which made the banks a bit hesitant.

Theodores 3y ago

I don't feel that Europe or the USA is where any growth can come from, aside for Cybertruck, which is North America only. Anyone middle class would have had one by now and poor people are not customers. In China they are getting crowded out by brands that better understand the local market, for example rear leg room at the cost of vehicle length/handling. They also have lots of self driving solutions that have no chance of making it to the West any time soon. Chinese people also like Chinese brands. American does not mean better. The honeymoon for Western brands is over. With PCs, why would a sensible Chinese person buy some HP or Dell thing when Huawei have that extra touch of quality to them at a better price? Tesla along with GM's Buick, VW and the others making e-cars have this problem.

m463 3y ago
I don't feel that Europe or the USA is where any growth can come from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timeline_of_production_and_sales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timelin... I think they're growing just fine. looking at the quarterly breakdown, sales stall every so often, but pick up later. Sort of like California real estate prices. People always say it can't go on, but it does.

jamesy0ung 3y ago

He was actually booked to go to India to announce a new factory, but he cancelled it at last minute to go to China [1]. [1] https://m.economictimes.com/industry/renewables/why-elon-musk-chose-to-go-to-china-rather-than-visit-india/amp_articleshow/109715183.cms https://m.economictimes.com/industry/renewables/why-elon-mus...