4 ms·

Yes, it was a thing. And I feel like there are several headwinds: 1) Globalization. Many countries have better talent for lower-cost than the US now. Our scho

by blagie 2y ago

Yes, it was a thing. And I feel like there are several headwinds: 1) Globalization. Many countries have better talent for lower-cost than the US now. Our school system sucks. This is not a bad thing, since it improves lives for hundreds of millions of people, just not here. 2) Automation. GenAI isn't taking over roles, but it is allowing them to be fulfilled with fewer people. 3) Inelastic supply curve. If demand falls, wages plummet. If demand rises, wages skyrocket. This means that something like a 10% layoff can have a disproportionate effect on both job availability and salary. 4) As relevant to HN, K-12 schools are making coding increasingly mandatory, so that skillset is less and less exclusive. There's an open question about how much of this is a cycle. The Communist Manifesto was published in 1850, and has a nice discussion about how highly-skilled, respected artisan jobs were wiped out by industrialization, where a master blacksmith and unskilled labor had the same salary as factory labourers, which is worth a reread, and seeing which parts turned out wrong, and which parts turned out right. A lot of what we might be seeing might be macroeconomic trends, rather than a cyclical.

ch4s3 2y ago
> but it is allowing them to be fulfilled with fewer people. Are you seeing this in the wild? I see a few people using it here an there to be a little more efficient, but I haven't seen anything better than a marginal improvement yet. I'd be curious to hear how people are using this stuff for meaningful work.
- neom 2y ago
  I work at a law firm and CoCounsel[1] is pretty good. It's not impacting jobs yet, but I suspect next year will be the year planning with automation in mind will happen. [1]https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/artificial-intelligence.html https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/artificial-intelligence.ht...
- apwell23 2y ago
  > I'd be curious to hear how people are using this stuff for meaningful work. I use it for coding all the time. All day everyday. I don't know about 'fewer people' claim though
  - ch4s3 2y ago
    I use it a little too, but it’s not a huge boost. Maybe I’d feel differently if I had to churn out typescript.
- blagie 2y ago
  I spoke to a CTO of a firm doing relatively cookie-cutter work (custom software for things like waste management). They were able to lay off a significant portion of their workforce due to AI. I think it's eating in more at the bottom-end of coding right now. It definitely makes me more productive in high-end, by more than what I'd call marginal, but not by enough that it's risking jobs. However, the article, and my comment, were more general than coding. The impact is different industry-by-industry, from zero to very high.
  - delfinom 2y ago
    Yea, I really don't believe that's true. More than likely it was the rose tinted glasses he wore. It just means the remaining engineers had to work harder. AI helps you generate boilerplate, that you still have to check because it will fuck up. It doesn't do entire projects for you.
    - blagie 2y ago
      He described specific functions which AI mostly took over. Those tended to focus on things like developing test cases, where before they had a test team. I didn't pick up that the people on that team were particularly impressive. I would guess someone still had to check their work because they would fuck it up. I'm not sure how AI is worse.
      - ch4s3 2y ago
        Interesting, that sounds like a way out of a bad staffing and leadership trap rather than any big productivity gains. But it is something I guess.
        blagie 2y ago
        I think it's a little bit different. When I was in tech, I had a set of bars of quality for employees: 1. Google (keeping in mind early Google was much more selective than today 2. Elite schools / HN 3. Typical tech When I worked for a non-tech, I learned that there are about a dozen rungs below that. The ladder runs very deep. I was surprised at just how incompetent people were if you stepped into almost any company outside of tech. I am guessing there is no way I could hire you (a random HN'er) to make custom software for some waste management firm, but they need someone to do it. It's not particular complex or interesting, but it's stuff which needs to get done. That's actually a huge part of the industry. On a prior thread, someone asked how IBM makes their money. The pieces I've seen are based on contracting out this sort of boring but very necessary work from a place that's completely incompetent in tech (random big non-tech firm) to one which is only moderately incompetent (IBM).
mostlysimilar 2y ago
> As relevant to HN, K-12 schools are making coding increasingly mandatory, so that skillset is less and less exclusive. The majority of those people have neither the ability nor the inclination to build software. The idea that everyone will write code in the future is a fantasy pushed by the business bobbleheads who want any excuse to pay less for engineering talent.
- blagie 2y ago
  No, but when Microsoft was founded, the pathway was open to Bill Gates since he went to a $$$$ elite private school which could afford a computer. That's right. One computer. Today, that path is open to everyone. The idea isn't that everyone will write code. The idea is that everyone will have the opportunity to learn, and if 1% run with it, that's 3 million programmers in the US, and 80 million worldwide. I have no idea what that percentage is (5%? 0.1%), but whatever it is, it's a skill that's growing much less exclusive.
taylodl 2y ago
> 4) As relevant to HN, K-12 schools are making coding increasingly mandatory, so that skillset is less and less exclusive I'm not buying this. Literacy is declining in the US - and it's not like the older people have forgotten how to read, so we can safely conclude that fewer and fewer of the younger people can read and you think somehow these illiterate people are learning to code? One could argue, and many have, that a bachelor's degree in computer science doesn't prepare one for being a professional developer. A secondary education level developer? On average (discarding the very few exceptional students)? Nope. They're not in your competition pool.
- nasmorn 2y ago
  Most people cannot even describe their projects in enough detail that an exceptional developer could build it. Now they are supposed to just do it all themselves because they wrote fizzbuzz in high school once? That seems very optimistic
- delfinom 2y ago
  Literacy's decline can be partially blamed on literally liberal elitists sitting in an ivory tower pushing an absolutely scientifically unproven and bullshit method of teaching kids to read and the dividends are paying real hard now. https://apnews.com/article/phonics-science-reading-c715dea43f338f163715b01b83bb1066 https://apnews.com/article/phonics-science-reading-c715dea43... https://slate.com/human-interest/2023/10/reading-phonics-literacy-calkins-curriculum-public-school.html https://slate.com/human-interest/2023/10/reading-phonics-lit... https://www.apmreports.org/episode/2019/08/22/whats-wrong-how-schools-teach-reading https://www.apmreports.org/episode/2019/08/22/whats-wrong-ho...
  - taylodl 2y ago
    You know schools are locally run and controlled, right? Those so-called "liberal elitists" can only do what a locale allows them to do, meaning, those "liberal elitists" aren't the problem.
    - blagie 2y ago

by blagie 2y ago

ch4s3 2y ago

> but it is allowing them to be fulfilled with fewer people. Are you seeing this in the wild? I see a few people using it here an there to be a little more efficient, but I haven't seen anything better than a marginal improvement yet. I'd be curious to hear how people are using this stuff for meaningful work.

neom 2y ago
I work at a law firm and CoCounsel[1] is pretty good. It's not impacting jobs yet, but I suspect next year will be the year planning with automation in mind will happen. [1]https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/artificial-intelligence.html https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/artificial-intelligence.ht...
apwell23 2y ago
> I'd be curious to hear how people are using this stuff for meaningful work. I use it for coding all the time. All day everyday. I don't know about 'fewer people' claim though
- ch4s3 2y ago
  I use it a little too, but it’s not a huge boost. Maybe I’d feel differently if I had to churn out typescript.
blagie 2y ago
I spoke to a CTO of a firm doing relatively cookie-cutter work (custom software for things like waste management). They were able to lay off a significant portion of their workforce due to AI. I think it's eating in more at the bottom-end of coding right now. It definitely makes me more productive in high-end, by more than what I'd call marginal, but not by enough that it's risking jobs. However, the article, and my comment, were more general than coding. The impact is different industry-by-industry, from zero to very high.
- delfinom 2y ago
  Yea, I really don't believe that's true. More than likely it was the rose tinted glasses he wore. It just means the remaining engineers had to work harder. AI helps you generate boilerplate, that you still have to check because it will fuck up. It doesn't do entire projects for you.
  - blagie 2y ago
    He described specific functions which AI mostly took over. Those tended to focus on things like developing test cases, where before they had a test team. I didn't pick up that the people on that team were particularly impressive. I would guess someone still had to check their work because they would fuck it up. I'm not sure how AI is worse.
    - ch4s3 2y ago
      Interesting, that sounds like a way out of a bad staffing and leadership trap rather than any big productivity gains. But it is something I guess.
      - blagie 2y ago
        I think it's a little bit different. When I was in tech, I had a set of bars of quality for employees: 1. Google (keeping in mind early Google was much more selective than today 2. Elite schools / HN 3. Typical tech When I worked for a non-tech, I learned that there are about a dozen rungs below that. The ladder runs very deep. I was surprised at just how incompetent people were if you stepped into almost any company outside of tech. I am guessing there is no way I could hire you (a random HN'er) to make custom software for some waste management firm, but they need someone to do it. It's not particular complex or interesting, but it's stuff which needs to get done. That's actually a huge part of the industry. On a prior thread, someone asked how IBM makes their money. The pieces I've seen are based on contracting out this sort of boring but very necessary work from a place that's completely incompetent in tech (random big non-tech firm) to one which is only moderately incompetent (IBM).

mostlysimilar 2y ago

> As relevant to HN, K-12 schools are making coding increasingly mandatory, so that skillset is less and less exclusive. The majority of those people have neither the ability nor the inclination to build software. The idea that everyone will write code in the future is a fantasy pushed by the business bobbleheads who want any excuse to pay less for engineering talent.

blagie 2y ago
No, but when Microsoft was founded, the pathway was open to Bill Gates since he went to a $$$$ elite private school which could afford a computer. That's right. One computer. Today, that path is open to everyone. The idea isn't that everyone will write code. The idea is that everyone will have the opportunity to learn, and if 1% run with it, that's 3 million programmers in the US, and 80 million worldwide. I have no idea what that percentage is (5%? 0.1%), but whatever it is, it's a skill that's growing much less exclusive.

taylodl 2y ago

> 4) As relevant to HN, K-12 schools are making coding increasingly mandatory, so that skillset is less and less exclusive I'm not buying this. Literacy is declining in the US - and it's not like the older people have forgotten how to read, so we can safely conclude that fewer and fewer of the younger people can read and you think somehow these illiterate people are learning to code? One could argue, and many have, that a bachelor's degree in computer science doesn't prepare one for being a professional developer. A secondary education level developer? On average (discarding the very few exceptional students)? Nope. They're not in your competition pool.

nasmorn 2y ago
Most people cannot even describe their projects in enough detail that an exceptional developer could build it. Now they are supposed to just do it all themselves because they wrote fizzbuzz in high school once? That seems very optimistic
delfinom 2y ago
Literacy's decline can be partially blamed on literally liberal elitists sitting in an ivory tower pushing an absolutely scientifically unproven and bullshit method of teaching kids to read and the dividends are paying real hard now. https://apnews.com/article/phonics-science-reading-c715dea43f338f163715b01b83bb1066 https://apnews.com/article/phonics-science-reading-c715dea43... https://slate.com/human-interest/2023/10/reading-phonics-literacy-calkins-curriculum-public-school.html https://slate.com/human-interest/2023/10/reading-phonics-lit... https://www.apmreports.org/episode/2019/08/22/whats-wrong-how-schools-teach-reading https://www.apmreports.org/episode/2019/08/22/whats-wrong-ho...
- taylodl 2y ago
  You know schools are locally run and controlled, right? Those so-called "liberal elitists" can only do what a locale allows them to do, meaning, those "liberal elitists" aren't the problem.
  - blagie 2y ago