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"But for the rest of us, the era of cushy jobs with healthy salaries and light responsibilities might be ending." Wait. That was a thing? This article also m

"But for the rest of us, the era of cushy jobs with healthy salaries and light responsibilities might be ending." Wait. That was a thing? This article also mentions, "Last year saw the demise of middle managers." Is that all this article is talking about? Because a more appropriate way of addressing this is probably talking about what market shift is currently happening, and how economies experience cycles of expansion and contraction because of industry growth and changes.

blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
My guess is this has more to do with companies optimizing their financial situation through layoffs (reducing number of available positions) and with remote work acceptance enabling offshoring. I doubt it is about middle managers specially - despite being made fun of they are important and necessary in most companies.
- dyauspitr 2y ago
  Middle managers basically do all the lifting at my company. If anything I feel like the directors and the executives have relatively light responsibilities.
blagie 2y ago
Yes, it was a thing. And I feel like there are several headwinds: 1) Globalization. Many countries have better talent for lower-cost than the US now. Our school system sucks. This is not a bad thing, since it improves lives for hundreds of millions of people, just not here. 2) Automation. GenAI isn't taking over roles, but it is allowing them to be fulfilled with fewer people. 3) Inelastic supply curve. If demand falls, wages plummet. If demand rises, wages skyrocket. This means that something like a 10% layoff can have a disproportionate effect on both job availability and salary. 4) As relevant to HN, K-12 schools are making coding increasingly mandatory, so that skillset is less and less exclusive. There's an open question about how much of this is a cycle. The Communist Manifesto was published in 1850, and has a nice discussion about how highly-skilled, respected artisan jobs were wiped out by industrialization, where a master blacksmith and unskilled labor had the same salary as factory labourers, which is worth a reread, and seeing which parts turned out wrong, and which parts turned out right. A lot of what we might be seeing might be macroeconomic trends, rather than a cyclical.
- ch4s3 2y ago
  > but it is allowing them to be fulfilled with fewer people. Are you seeing this in the wild? I see a few people using it here an there to be a little more efficient, but I haven't seen anything better than a marginal improvement yet. I'd be curious to hear how people are using this stuff for meaningful work.
  - neom 2y ago
    I work at a law firm and CoCounsel[1] is pretty good. It's not impacting jobs yet, but I suspect next year will be the year planning with automation in mind will happen. [1]https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/artificial-intelligence.html https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/artificial-intelligence.ht...
  - apwell23 2y ago
    > I'd be curious to hear how people are using this stuff for meaningful work. I use it for coding all the time. All day everyday. I don't know about 'fewer people' claim though
    - ch4s3 2y ago
      I use it a little too, but it’s not a huge boost. Maybe I’d feel differently if I had to churn out typescript.
  - blagie 2y ago
    I spoke to a CTO of a firm doing relatively cookie-cutter work (custom software for things like waste management). They were able to lay off a significant portion of their workforce due to AI. I think it's eating in more at the bottom-end of coding right now. It definitely makes me more productive in high-end, by more than what I'd call marginal, but not by enough that it's risking jobs. However, the article, and my comment, were more general than coding. The impact is different industry-by-industry, from zero to very high.
    - delfinom 2y ago
jiveturkey 2y ago
> more appropriate way this is a BI article. reset your expectations
apwell23 2y ago
> Wait. That was a thing? yes it was def a thing. Lots of people i know had ( and still have) 2 or 3 jobs at the same time.

blackeyeblitzar 2y ago

My guess is this has more to do with companies optimizing their financial situation through layoffs (reducing number of available positions) and with remote work acceptance enabling offshoring. I doubt it is about middle managers specially - despite being made fun of they are important and necessary in most companies.

dyauspitr 2y ago
Middle managers basically do all the lifting at my company. If anything I feel like the directors and the executives have relatively light responsibilities.

blagie 2y ago

Yes, it was a thing. And I feel like there are several headwinds: 1) Globalization. Many countries have better talent for lower-cost than the US now. Our school system sucks. This is not a bad thing, since it improves lives for hundreds of millions of people, just not here. 2) Automation. GenAI isn't taking over roles, but it is allowing them to be fulfilled with fewer people. 3) Inelastic supply curve. If demand falls, wages plummet. If demand rises, wages skyrocket. This means that something like a 10% layoff can have a disproportionate effect on both job availability and salary. 4) As relevant to HN, K-12 schools are making coding increasingly mandatory, so that skillset is less and less exclusive. There's an open question about how much of this is a cycle. The Communist Manifesto was published in 1850, and has a nice discussion about how highly-skilled, respected artisan jobs were wiped out by industrialization, where a master blacksmith and unskilled labor had the same salary as factory labourers, which is worth a reread, and seeing which parts turned out wrong, and which parts turned out right. A lot of what we might be seeing might be macroeconomic trends, rather than a cyclical.

ch4s3 2y ago
> but it is allowing them to be fulfilled with fewer people. Are you seeing this in the wild? I see a few people using it here an there to be a little more efficient, but I haven't seen anything better than a marginal improvement yet. I'd be curious to hear how people are using this stuff for meaningful work.
- neom 2y ago
  I work at a law firm and CoCounsel[1] is pretty good. It's not impacting jobs yet, but I suspect next year will be the year planning with automation in mind will happen. [1]https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/artificial-intelligence.html https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/artificial-intelligence.ht...
- apwell23 2y ago
  > I'd be curious to hear how people are using this stuff for meaningful work. I use it for coding all the time. All day everyday. I don't know about 'fewer people' claim though
  - ch4s3 2y ago
    I use it a little too, but it’s not a huge boost. Maybe I’d feel differently if I had to churn out typescript.
- blagie 2y ago
  I spoke to a CTO of a firm doing relatively cookie-cutter work (custom software for things like waste management). They were able to lay off a significant portion of their workforce due to AI. I think it's eating in more at the bottom-end of coding right now. It definitely makes me more productive in high-end, by more than what I'd call marginal, but not by enough that it's risking jobs. However, the article, and my comment, were more general than coding. The impact is different industry-by-industry, from zero to very high.
  - delfinom 2y ago

jiveturkey 2y ago

> more appropriate way this is a BI article. reset your expectations

apwell23 2y ago

> Wait. That was a thing? yes it was def a thing. Lots of people i know had ( and still have) 2 or 3 jobs at the same time.