5 ms·

The problem with such data is always the reporting threshold. Crime level might be high but crime doesn't get reported.

by genman 2y ago

verdverm 2y ago
There will always be unreported crimes. What matters more is changes to crime and reporting rates. Given all data sets show that crimes have dropped significantly - If the reporting rate for crimes has been steady or increased, then we can conclude crime has indeed decreased - Only if the reporting rate for crimes has decreased do we not know the effect. It would be dependent on the magnitudes of each They get into some of this data in the piece
- genman 2y ago
  Like I told - there is problem with threshold changes. If the thresholds are manipulated then it will lower also reported crime rates but the apparent crime rate based on personal experiences circulating in the population will paint a different picture. For example if somebody gets mugged but the value of the loss is below the threshold then it will not get reported but the crime still happened and the fact is shared in the population and this affects the perceived crime rate within the population.
AmVess 2y ago
The problem also: major cities have simply stopped reporting crime at all. Further, crimes go unreported because police have stopped responding to many of them. And then you have the other neat new thing of all races being listed as white.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  > The problem also: major cities have simply stopped reporting crime at all. I promise you, no major city has ceased to report and respond to homicides, where we continue to statistically enjoy one of the safest couple of decades in American history.
  - genman 2y ago
    And what has it to do with wide spread blatant shoplifting affecting many US cities?
    - ceejayoz 2y ago
      You mean the stat that is... * Frequently inflated with claims that there's a whole bunch of them suddenly unreported? * Likely blown out to some extent by statistical outliers? https://counciloncj.org/is-shoplifting-up-or-down/ https://counciloncj.org/is-shoplifting-up-or-down/ * Overstated by companies to justify store closings? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/06/business/walgreens-shoplifting.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/06/business/walgreens-shopli... It's exceedingly difficult to determine the actual rate of shoplifting on a national scale. The claim was "major cities have simply stopped reporting crime at all" which is just... laughable. As is the "everything's reported as white" follow-up.
      - genman 2y ago
        And that was the main point of my comment - we really don't know what is the actual situation.
        ceejayoz 2y ago
        I thought it was "wide spread" and "affecting many US cities"?
        genman 2y ago
        Yes, this is one particular crime where crime level might (see my original comment) be higher than the official picture presents. Even when it is not reported then people still perceive it as crime.
  - adolph 2y ago
    I promise you that major cities have stopped reporting crime to the FBI. At least one major city hid lack of crime response under administrative labels. The FBI data is based on voluntary reporting by individual law enforcement agencies, and last year, half of US police departments, including those in big cities such as Los Angeles and New York, failed to submit data for 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/22/us-crime-stats-warning-experts-fbi https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/22/us-crime-sta... Seven months after the May 2023, assault, Houston police classified the incident as “suspended – lack of personnel,” an internal label placed on tens of thousands of incidents over the past decade. The classification perplexed Hill, who felt the matter had been long settled. https://houstonlanding.org/did-hpd-neglect-suspended-cases-we-asked-24-crime-victims-about-their-experience/ https://houstonlanding.org/did-hpd-neglect-suspended-cases-w...
onthecanposting 2y ago
There is also the effect of decriminalization and depolicing which I did not see well addressed in the article. There are parts of the US where local government has the social leaning or at least their key donors have the social leaning to take a permissive attitude towards activity that was previously criminal. Effectively this makes activity like buying and selling drugs and shoplifting legal and, thereby, meaningless to report. If anything the article may more likely be an indicator of the delta between crime as-is and as-reported or a cautionary tale of decision-driven-data
- verdverm 2y ago
  The types of crime covered in the article are not these types of crimes > Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-74%), aggravated assault (-39%) and murder/nonnegligent manslaughter (-34%). It’s not possible to calculate the change in the rape rate during this period because the FBI revised its definition of the offense in 2013. > The FBI data also shows a 59% reduction in the U.S. property crime rate between 1993 and 2022, with big declines in the rates of burglary (-75%), larceny/theft (-54%) and motor vehicle theft (-53%).
KingMob 2y ago
No, that is literally what one of the two major studies mentioned, the National Crime Victimization Survey, gets around with its methodology. They survey a quarter million Americans every year, and don't rely on what gets reported to the police/insurance companies/etc. Did you not read the article?

The problem with such data is always the reporting threshold. Crime level might be high but crime doesn't get reported.

by genman 2y ago

The problem with such data is always the reporting threshold. Crime level might be high but crime doesn't get reported.

There will always be unreported crimes. What matters more is changes to crime and reporting rates. Given all data sets show that crimes have dropped significantly - If the reporting rate for crimes has been steady or increased, then we can conclude crime has indeed decreased - Only if the reporting rate for crimes has decreased do we not know the effect. It would be dependent on the magnitudes of each They get into some of this data in the piece

genman 2y ago
Like I told - there is problem with threshold changes. If the thresholds are manipulated then it will lower also reported crime rates but the apparent crime rate based on personal experiences circulating in the population will paint a different picture. For example if somebody gets mugged but the value of the loss is below the threshold then it will not get reported but the crime still happened and the fact is shared in the population and this affects the perceived crime rate within the population.

AmVess 2y ago

The problem also: major cities have simply stopped reporting crime at all. Further, crimes go unreported because police have stopped responding to many of them. And then you have the other neat new thing of all races being listed as white.

ceejayoz 2y ago
> The problem also: major cities have simply stopped reporting crime at all. I promise you, no major city has ceased to report and respond to homicides, where we continue to statistically enjoy one of the safest couple of decades in American history.
- genman 2y ago
  And what has it to do with wide spread blatant shoplifting affecting many US cities?
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    You mean the stat that is... * Frequently inflated with claims that there's a whole bunch of them suddenly unreported? * Likely blown out to some extent by statistical outliers? https://counciloncj.org/is-shoplifting-up-or-down/ https://counciloncj.org/is-shoplifting-up-or-down/ * Overstated by companies to justify store closings? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/06/business/walgreens-shoplifting.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/06/business/walgreens-shopli... It's exceedingly difficult to determine the actual rate of shoplifting on a national scale. The claim was "major cities have simply stopped reporting crime at all" which is just... laughable. As is the "everything's reported as white" follow-up.
    - genman 2y ago
      And that was the main point of my comment - we really don't know what is the actual situation.
      - ceejayoz 2y ago
        I thought it was "wide spread" and "affecting many US cities"?
        genman 2y ago
        Yes, this is one particular crime where crime level might (see my original comment) be higher than the official picture presents. Even when it is not reported then people still perceive it as crime.
- adolph 2y ago
  I promise you that major cities have stopped reporting crime to the FBI. At least one major city hid lack of crime response under administrative labels. The FBI data is based on voluntary reporting by individual law enforcement agencies, and last year, half of US police departments, including those in big cities such as Los Angeles and New York, failed to submit data for 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/22/us-crime-stats-warning-experts-fbi https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/22/us-crime-sta... Seven months after the May 2023, assault, Houston police classified the incident as “suspended – lack of personnel,” an internal label placed on tens of thousands of incidents over the past decade. The classification perplexed Hill, who felt the matter had been long settled. https://houstonlanding.org/did-hpd-neglect-suspended-cases-we-asked-24-crime-victims-about-their-experience/ https://houstonlanding.org/did-hpd-neglect-suspended-cases-w...

onthecanposting 2y ago

There is also the effect of decriminalization and depolicing which I did not see well addressed in the article. There are parts of the US where local government has the social leaning or at least their key donors have the social leaning to take a permissive attitude towards activity that was previously criminal. Effectively this makes activity like buying and selling drugs and shoplifting legal and, thereby, meaningless to report. If anything the article may more likely be an indicator of the delta between crime as-is and as-reported or a cautionary tale of decision-driven-data

verdverm 2y ago
The types of crime covered in the article are not these types of crimes > Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-74%), aggravated assault (-39%) and murder/nonnegligent manslaughter (-34%). It’s not possible to calculate the change in the rape rate during this period because the FBI revised its definition of the offense in 2013. > The FBI data also shows a 59% reduction in the U.S. property crime rate between 1993 and 2022, with big declines in the rates of burglary (-75%), larceny/theft (-54%) and motor vehicle theft (-53%).

KingMob 2y ago

No, that is literally what one of the two major studies mentioned, the National Crime Victimization Survey, gets around with its methodology. They survey a quarter million Americans every year, and don't rely on what gets reported to the police/insurance companies/etc. Did you not read the article?