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Manufacturing is not a magical lamp that craps out guns. It is merely a part of a value chain. Namely, minerals and petrochemicals have to be produced upstream
by anonylizard 2y ago
Manufacturing is not a magical lamp that craps out guns.
It is merely a part of a value chain. Namely, minerals and petrochemicals have to be produced upstream. Financial GDP captures the ability to produce or purchase the upstream resources, manufacturing alone does not.
Now manufacturing capacity is illiquid, and it takes time to convert financial power to manufacturing capacity, see the Ukraine ammunition crisis. While manufacturing capacity is more war-ready.
However, China hasn't invaded Ukraine yet, because US choking off the sea lanes will be catastrophic for China's economy and offensive war capacity. Without trade, the factories have no resource inputs, and no markets to export to.
So in the end, financial power does slightly underestimate the hard-power benefits of manufacturing, but GDP (USD) should still be used as the primary determinant of hard power, not amount of factories built.
- pjmorris 2y ago> Financial GDP captures the ability to produce or purchase the upstream resources, manufacturing alone does not Sure, manufacturing depends on its inputs. My take is that the material economy (manufacturing and all its inputs) is the actual source of hard power, finance is a proxy, and maybe not the most helpful one in a case where war materials are controlled by an opponent.