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Any recent version of FSD (i.e. 12.3.x) is technology close to magic. There was a time when HN would recognise technological acheievement on its own merit, wit

by cbeach 2y ago

Any recent version of FSD (i.e. 12.3.x) is technology close to magic. There was a time when HN would recognise technological acheievement on its own merit, without allowing personal politics to cloud our judgement. But sadly, we're in a perverse era of political tribalism where FSD is bad because https://elonbad.com/ https://elonbad.com/

nojvek 2y ago
FSD is cool as a great demo. But the optics and facts are that it’s got people killed. Multiple people over the years. Silly mistakes causing crashes. It will get better but definitely does not live up to the “full self driving” marketing hype. That kills the magic. Meanwhile look at Waymo. They don’t make a lot of noise. They take safety really seriously and keep on improving actual “self driving cars” city by city. Zero people dead. I’ve sat in both. FSD was a great demo, but Waymo truly felt like magic. No driver at all!
- mbrumlow 2y ago
  I don’t think we will ever have any self driving tech that inter mingles with non self driving cars that will result in zero deaths. While sad, mile for mile FSD is better than humans.
  - Mawr 2y ago
    FSD only drives in a subset of conditions humans drive in so the comparison is invalid.
  - acdha 2y ago
    > While sad, mile for mile FSD is better than humans. For this statement to be correct, we’d need to have full disclosure of all travel using FSD at any point, accidents which happened anytime FSD was active or had been recently deactivated (for example, that guy who fell asleep counts even if FSD deactivated a minute before the vehicle crashed), and be able to compare that to the same trips driven by human drivers. You especially need to avoid including incidents in the human stats which are in conditions where FSD would do even worse.
  - alemanek 2y ago
    How the heck did you reach the conclusion that the current state of FSD is safer than a human driver. The Tesla Community FSD tracker has it at 157 city miles per disengagement at the moment. The people collecting this data are the Tesla enthusiasts as well. It has a very long way to go before it is better than a human. We won’t know the true stats until it is allowed to operate without supervision. Source: https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/Main https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/Main
  - penjelly 2y ago
    This notion is ridiculous to me everytime I hear it. How can we objectively measure that its safer? It feels way too easy to miss an externality and just chalk that up to teslas mile per mile being safer on a technicality
boringg 2y ago
I subscribe to this thought. HN has really made a turn that anything Elon does is bad even when he has managed to pull off some unbelievable feats. He isn't binary in his accomplishments as most people are fairly complex. It's a sad state of affairs - though I imagine its mostly cross-over of younger generations blending in their polarizing reddit politics over here. It is a dilutive process unfortunately.
FireBeyond 2y ago
"Any recent version", because "still recent, but not AS recent versions" were lucky to navigate a well marked roundabout in daylight without causing near misses. FSD will be "close to magic" when it's 11pm on a Pittsburgh night in January, with the snow coming down, road markings barely visible, if at all, and it still gets you home.
- cbeach 2y ago
  If it's 11pm on a Pittsburgh night in January, with the snow coming down, road markings barely visible, if at all, then the safe behaviour is to wait it out and drive in the morning. If FSD didn't work in those conditions, and this encouraged you to wait it out, then it might have just saved your life (or the lives of other road users).

by cbeach 2y ago

nojvek 2y ago

FSD is cool as a great demo. But the optics and facts are that it’s got people killed. Multiple people over the years. Silly mistakes causing crashes. It will get better but definitely does not live up to the “full self driving” marketing hype. That kills the magic. Meanwhile look at Waymo. They don’t make a lot of noise. They take safety really seriously and keep on improving actual “self driving cars” city by city. Zero people dead. I’ve sat in both. FSD was a great demo, but Waymo truly felt like magic. No driver at all!

mbrumlow 2y ago
I don’t think we will ever have any self driving tech that inter mingles with non self driving cars that will result in zero deaths. While sad, mile for mile FSD is better than humans.
- Mawr 2y ago
  FSD only drives in a subset of conditions humans drive in so the comparison is invalid.
- acdha 2y ago
  > While sad, mile for mile FSD is better than humans. For this statement to be correct, we’d need to have full disclosure of all travel using FSD at any point, accidents which happened anytime FSD was active or had been recently deactivated (for example, that guy who fell asleep counts even if FSD deactivated a minute before the vehicle crashed), and be able to compare that to the same trips driven by human drivers. You especially need to avoid including incidents in the human stats which are in conditions where FSD would do even worse.
- alemanek 2y ago
  How the heck did you reach the conclusion that the current state of FSD is safer than a human driver. The Tesla Community FSD tracker has it at 157 city miles per disengagement at the moment. The people collecting this data are the Tesla enthusiasts as well. It has a very long way to go before it is better than a human. We won’t know the true stats until it is allowed to operate without supervision. Source: https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/Main https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/Main
- penjelly 2y ago
  This notion is ridiculous to me everytime I hear it. How can we objectively measure that its safer? It feels way too easy to miss an externality and just chalk that up to teslas mile per mile being safer on a technicality

boringg 2y ago

I subscribe to this thought. HN has really made a turn that anything Elon does is bad even when he has managed to pull off some unbelievable feats. He isn't binary in his accomplishments as most people are fairly complex. It's a sad state of affairs - though I imagine its mostly cross-over of younger generations blending in their polarizing reddit politics over here. It is a dilutive process unfortunately.

FireBeyond 2y ago

"Any recent version", because "still recent, but not AS recent versions" were lucky to navigate a well marked roundabout in daylight without causing near misses. FSD will be "close to magic" when it's 11pm on a Pittsburgh night in January, with the snow coming down, road markings barely visible, if at all, and it still gets you home.

cbeach 2y ago
If it's 11pm on a Pittsburgh night in January, with the snow coming down, road markings barely visible, if at all, then the safe behaviour is to wait it out and drive in the morning. If FSD didn't work in those conditions, and this encouraged you to wait it out, then it might have just saved your life (or the lives of other road users).