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Even if we assume you are correct this is a great example of being correct and losing a lot of money - and boy howdy are there lots of ways to be 100% right abo

Even if we assume you are correct this is a great example of being correct and losing a lot of money - and boy howdy are there lots of ways to be 100% right about something and losing out. I invested in Tesla's IPO with some chump change (mostly because I was a lot poorer then). $4000 turned into $200k+, at which point I sold half. So perhaps you are right but I'm $100k cash / $100k paper richer for being "wrong". Being right won't pay your rent or keep you warm, but it can sometimes help you miss out on a lot of gains. See my other comment for my bearish negative thoughts on Tesla and Elon. On the positive side they have crossed into volume production territory. The place where suppliers not only return your phone calls they send people to ask you for meetings and offer discounts not available to the plebs. They have great brand awareness. They have a best-selling vehicle that continues to sell every single one that rolls off their 100% full production lines (at least in the US, not sure about elsewhere). That's demand and inventory positions other car makers would kill for. Tesla foresaw battery production as being limiting and their joint venture with Panasonic in Arizona has given them battery supply and battery economics that other automakers simply can't match right now no matter how much they try. There is a reason investors are bullish on Telsa. Twitter has been a massive distraction for Elon. He seems to have surrounded himself with yes-men and enablers who just want to cash in on him. None of this is good but in a way the Twitter distraction has kept him more hands-off from Tesla than in the past so it may end up being a blessing in disguise.

tombert 2y ago
> I invested in Tesla's IPO with some chump change (mostly because I was a lot poorer then). $4000 turned into $200k+, at which point I sold half. So perhaps you are right but I'm $100k cash / $100k paper richer for being "wrong". Ponzi schemes will often lead to people making money in the short-to-mid term. Not saying that Tesla is an outright Ponzi scheme but I do think that their stock is overinflated and following something Ponzi-adjacent. I can find plenty of examples of charismatic people that develop large followings that really don't deserve it, and then everything eventually tanks. The rest of what you said is more or less ok.

tombert 2y ago

> I invested in Tesla's IPO with some chump change (mostly because I was a lot poorer then). $4000 turned into $200k+, at which point I sold half. So perhaps you are right but I'm $100k cash / $100k paper richer for being "wrong". Ponzi schemes will often lead to people making money in the short-to-mid term. Not saying that Tesla is an outright Ponzi scheme but I do think that their stock is overinflated and following something Ponzi-adjacent. I can find plenty of examples of charismatic people that develop large followings that really don't deserve it, and then everything eventually tanks. The rest of what you said is more or less ok.