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In my opinion, this is all a massive gamble by Musk to pivot Tesla to an AI-first tech company. Except that Tesla cannot really do AI well and don't have the re

by ra7 2y ago

In my opinion, this is all a massive gamble by Musk to pivot Tesla to an AI-first tech company. Except that Tesla cannot really do AI well and don't have the resources or talent the likes of Google, Meta, OpenAI, etc. does to do novel research and push AI forward. And he has to make this gamble because Tesla's fundamentals as a car company is going down the drain and its entire valuation hinges on the fact that they are not just a car company. That's why he's constantly announcing new products (robotaxis, humanoid robots) that are nowhere close to materializing, making visits to China to ink HD maps deal with Baidu for FSD and claiming to spend $10B on AI infrastructure this year. He seems to be in forever stock pump mode, so much so that Tesla's best product till date might just be its stock.

renegade-otter 2y ago
Except that AI has not shown itself to be useful, at least not considering the staggering costs, anyway. Tens of billions of dollars to... fix people's grammar and generate tons of SEO spam? What PROBLEM are they solving here?
- bunderbunder 2y ago
  I think the parent poster stated it pretty clearly: the problem they're trying to solve is how to keep the stock price floating at a multiple of what the business's actual fundamentals suggest it should be. The problem is, while that worked well for a good 10 or 20 years, it seems that people are now starting to catch on to the scheme. But I'm not sure that means that you can just stop doing it. As someone elsewhere in the thread pointed out, dragging things out as much as you can is probably preferable to a sudden and brutal value correction for just about everyone with actual skin in the game.
- 93po 2y ago
  FSD is currently using neural-network style AI, and it's frankly amazing to use and watch and is massively useful.
  - stetrain 2y ago
    In what way is it useful? What value is being provided? In my experience it requires constant supervision and readiness to intervene at any moment. There are plenty of reports and photos of it running wheels into curbs with little time for the driver to react. Given that, while using it you do not regain any time or attention that you would have otherwise spent driving. That doesn't mean it isn't impressive. A car that can drive itself like a 15-year-old on their first outing with a fresh learner's permit that needs constant coaching from a parent or instructor is very impressive, just not useful. I will say that in clear conditions on long highway trips, basic Autopilot does have utility. It does allow you to divert some attention from keeping the car between the lines and matching the speed of the car in front, and use that attention to keep an eye on the large traffic picture, and arrive to your destination slightly less fatigued. Using FSD on city streets seems like the opposite of that to me, an increase in stress and workload that currently provides no practical utility.
  - mplewis 2y ago
    Is that the thing that keeps crashing people into highway barriers?
    - CamperBob2 2y ago
      That, and inadequate sensor diversity and coverage.
  - cbeach 2y ago
    Any recent version of FSD (i.e. 12.3.x) is technology close to magic. There was a time when HN would recognise technological acheievement on its own merit, without allowing personal politics to cloud our judgement. But sadly, we're in a perverse era of political tribalism where FSD is bad because https://elonbad.com/ https://elonbad.com/
    - nojvek 2y ago
      FSD is cool as a great demo. But the optics and facts are that it’s got people killed. Multiple people over the years. Silly mistakes causing crashes. It will get better but definitely does not live up to the “full self driving” marketing hype. That kills the magic. Meanwhile look at Waymo. They don’t make a lot of noise. They take safety really seriously and keep on improving actual “self driving cars” city by city. Zero people dead. I’ve sat in both. FSD was a great demo, but Waymo truly felt like magic. No driver at all!
- boringg 2y ago
  You have to remember a lot of those expenses are actually goosing the companies revenues side with low qual revenue. A good portion of investment dollars into OpenAI are with Microsoft credits -- which OpenAI then uses as opposed to real money. Doesn't answer your problem issue - though the real dollar cost of investment and training is lower.
- demondemidi 2y ago
  It's good at wake word detection and industrial anomaly autocorrelation. That's about it.
Reubend 2y ago
Yes, that seems correct from what I've seen. And if self driving can be improved enough, then it will pay off. However, I remain skeptical that he'll be able to improve it enough to compensate for other deficiencies in the product.
- rchaud 2y ago
  > And if self driving can be improved enough, then it will pay off. Hasn't Uber been waiting for the same thing to save it?
  - heywoods 2y ago
    Uber has been "out" of the self-driving game since end of 2020. The post T.K (Travis Kalanick) era has seen major divesting and shifting of the balance sheet away from longer term bets like self-driving in an attempt to reach profitability & shielding Uber from more risk. Here is a short history of self-driving @ Uber. August '15: Uber announces its partnership with Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) to establish the Uber Advanced Technologies Group (ATG) in Pittsburgh, focusing on self-driving technology research and development. May '16: Uber begins testing its self-driving Ford Fusion vehicles in Pittsburgh, marking its first public demonstration of autonomous vehicle technology. August '16: Uber acquires Otto, a self-driving truck startup founded by former Google engineers. This ended up with a lawsuit over stolen IP that was a large setback from what I remember. Sept. '16: Uber launches its first self-driving ride-hailing service in Pittsburgh, using a fleet of modified Ford Fusion's. Safety drivers are present in each car to take control if needed. December '16: Uber starts testing its self-driving cars in San Francisco without obtaining the necessary permits from the CA DMV. The DMV revokes the registration of Uber's test vehicles, forcing the company to halt its operations in the city. March '17: Uber resumes its self-driving tests in Arizona, taking advantage of the state's friendly regulations for autonomous vehicle testing. March '18: A fatal accident occurs in Tempe, Arizona, when an Uber self-driving vehicle strikes and kills a pedestrian. Uber suspends its self-driving testing program across all cities in the aftermath of the incident. July '18: Uber resumes its self-driving tests in Pittsburgh, with additional safety measures and limitations on the vehicles' operating conditions. March '19: Uber receives a $1 billion investment from SoftBank Vision Fund, Toyota, and DENSO for its self-driving unit, valuing the division at $7.25 billion. June '19: Uber resumes its self-driving tests in San Francisco, having obtained the necessary permits from the California DMV. Dec '20: Uber sells its ATG division to Aurora, a self-driving vehicle startup, in a deal valued at $4 billion. As part of the agreement, Uber invests $400 million in Aurora and retains a 26% stake in the combined company.
ryandrake 2y ago
> He seems to be in forever stock pump mode, so much so that Tesla's best product till date might just be its stock. A lot of companies seem to be gutting everything to the point where their only product is their stock.
- iancmceachern 2y ago
  This isn't new. Hp, IBM, GE, on and on
- quantified 2y ago
  The TV series "Silicon Valley" does not disappoint.
- BeFlatXIII 2y ago
  I can’t wait to point and laugh when the correction comes due.
  - tills13 2y ago
    you won't be laughing when your and your parents' pensions are wiped out because they buy proportionally into the S&P500.
    - ShinTakuya 2y ago
      It won't be a big deal given 5 or 10 years.
ProjectArcturis 2y ago
If you're a top-tier AI researcher, why TF would you choose Tesla to work for? The shine has gone off Musk as a super-genius. All you'd be getting is an arbitrary, capricious boss and terrible work hours.
- boshalfoshal 2y ago
  Tesla AI orgs can pay well above market for AI talent. Thats about the only reason anyone would join. If you are insensitive to work hours but want to get paid, its not the worst option.
  - acdha 2y ago
    Do they really outbid Google, Microsoft, Facebook, OpenAI, Apple, etc.? I totally believe they pay better than the average startup but those companies are spraying money around right now and their stock options have a lot more upside – Tesla’s P/E is wildly high so they’d need a phenomenal reversal in fortune to drive it enough higher for anyone to see a great return.
    - boshalfoshal 2y ago
      Its not uncommon for PhD hires from top schools to be paid upper 6figs (i.e 600k+) of real money, according to a few friends of mine doing PhDs at top schools. OpenAI is probably the only one thats truly "competitive." I also (personally) know of several non-ML offers that were substantially higher than FAANG. Though even within FAANG only Meta and maybe Google (and Amazon at hogher levels) are very competitive. Meta and Google likely have better growth prospects though with better refreshers, bonuses, stock growth, etc. But up front Tesla AI offers are definitely very strong. Even then I'm not sure its worth the stress.
- bamboozled 2y ago
  And even if you delivered something nice you could still get fired for something stupid. No thanks.
bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
> That's why he's constantly announcing Security fraud.

by ra7 2y ago

renegade-otter 2y ago

Except that AI has not shown itself to be useful, at least not considering the staggering costs, anyway. Tens of billions of dollars to... fix people's grammar and generate tons of SEO spam? What PROBLEM are they solving here?

bunderbunder 2y ago
I think the parent poster stated it pretty clearly: the problem they're trying to solve is how to keep the stock price floating at a multiple of what the business's actual fundamentals suggest it should be. The problem is, while that worked well for a good 10 or 20 years, it seems that people are now starting to catch on to the scheme. But I'm not sure that means that you can just stop doing it. As someone elsewhere in the thread pointed out, dragging things out as much as you can is probably preferable to a sudden and brutal value correction for just about everyone with actual skin in the game.
93po 2y ago
FSD is currently using neural-network style AI, and it's frankly amazing to use and watch and is massively useful.
- stetrain 2y ago
  In what way is it useful? What value is being provided? In my experience it requires constant supervision and readiness to intervene at any moment. There are plenty of reports and photos of it running wheels into curbs with little time for the driver to react. Given that, while using it you do not regain any time or attention that you would have otherwise spent driving. That doesn't mean it isn't impressive. A car that can drive itself like a 15-year-old on their first outing with a fresh learner's permit that needs constant coaching from a parent or instructor is very impressive, just not useful. I will say that in clear conditions on long highway trips, basic Autopilot does have utility. It does allow you to divert some attention from keeping the car between the lines and matching the speed of the car in front, and use that attention to keep an eye on the large traffic picture, and arrive to your destination slightly less fatigued. Using FSD on city streets seems like the opposite of that to me, an increase in stress and workload that currently provides no practical utility.
- mplewis 2y ago
  Is that the thing that keeps crashing people into highway barriers?
  - CamperBob2 2y ago
    That, and inadequate sensor diversity and coverage.
- cbeach 2y ago
  Any recent version of FSD (i.e. 12.3.x) is technology close to magic. There was a time when HN would recognise technological acheievement on its own merit, without allowing personal politics to cloud our judgement. But sadly, we're in a perverse era of political tribalism where FSD is bad because https://elonbad.com/ https://elonbad.com/
  - nojvek 2y ago
    FSD is cool as a great demo. But the optics and facts are that it’s got people killed. Multiple people over the years. Silly mistakes causing crashes. It will get better but definitely does not live up to the “full self driving” marketing hype. That kills the magic. Meanwhile look at Waymo. They don’t make a lot of noise. They take safety really seriously and keep on improving actual “self driving cars” city by city. Zero people dead. I’ve sat in both. FSD was a great demo, but Waymo truly felt like magic. No driver at all!
boringg 2y ago
You have to remember a lot of those expenses are actually goosing the companies revenues side with low qual revenue. A good portion of investment dollars into OpenAI are with Microsoft credits -- which OpenAI then uses as opposed to real money. Doesn't answer your problem issue - though the real dollar cost of investment and training is lower.
demondemidi 2y ago
It's good at wake word detection and industrial anomaly autocorrelation. That's about it.

Reubend 2y ago

Yes, that seems correct from what I've seen. And if self driving can be improved enough, then it will pay off. However, I remain skeptical that he'll be able to improve it enough to compensate for other deficiencies in the product.

rchaud 2y ago
> And if self driving can be improved enough, then it will pay off. Hasn't Uber been waiting for the same thing to save it?
- heywoods 2y ago
  Uber has been "out" of the self-driving game since end of 2020. The post T.K (Travis Kalanick) era has seen major divesting and shifting of the balance sheet away from longer term bets like self-driving in an attempt to reach profitability & shielding Uber from more risk. Here is a short history of self-driving @ Uber. August '15: Uber announces its partnership with Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) to establish the Uber Advanced Technologies Group (ATG) in Pittsburgh, focusing on self-driving technology research and development. May '16: Uber begins testing its self-driving Ford Fusion vehicles in Pittsburgh, marking its first public demonstration of autonomous vehicle technology. August '16: Uber acquires Otto, a self-driving truck startup founded by former Google engineers. This ended up with a lawsuit over stolen IP that was a large setback from what I remember. Sept. '16: Uber launches its first self-driving ride-hailing service in Pittsburgh, using a fleet of modified Ford Fusion's. Safety drivers are present in each car to take control if needed. December '16: Uber starts testing its self-driving cars in San Francisco without obtaining the necessary permits from the CA DMV. The DMV revokes the registration of Uber's test vehicles, forcing the company to halt its operations in the city. March '17: Uber resumes its self-driving tests in Arizona, taking advantage of the state's friendly regulations for autonomous vehicle testing. March '18: A fatal accident occurs in Tempe, Arizona, when an Uber self-driving vehicle strikes and kills a pedestrian. Uber suspends its self-driving testing program across all cities in the aftermath of the incident. July '18: Uber resumes its self-driving tests in Pittsburgh, with additional safety measures and limitations on the vehicles' operating conditions. March '19: Uber receives a $1 billion investment from SoftBank Vision Fund, Toyota, and DENSO for its self-driving unit, valuing the division at $7.25 billion. June '19: Uber resumes its self-driving tests in San Francisco, having obtained the necessary permits from the California DMV. Dec '20: Uber sells its ATG division to Aurora, a self-driving vehicle startup, in a deal valued at $4 billion. As part of the agreement, Uber invests $400 million in Aurora and retains a 26% stake in the combined company.

ryandrake 2y ago

> He seems to be in forever stock pump mode, so much so that Tesla's best product till date might just be its stock. A lot of companies seem to be gutting everything to the point where their only product is their stock.

iancmceachern 2y ago
This isn't new. Hp, IBM, GE, on and on
quantified 2y ago
The TV series "Silicon Valley" does not disappoint.
BeFlatXIII 2y ago
I can’t wait to point and laugh when the correction comes due.
- tills13 2y ago
  you won't be laughing when your and your parents' pensions are wiped out because they buy proportionally into the S&P500.
  - ShinTakuya 2y ago
    It won't be a big deal given 5 or 10 years.

ProjectArcturis 2y ago

If you're a top-tier AI researcher, why TF would you choose Tesla to work for? The shine has gone off Musk as a super-genius. All you'd be getting is an arbitrary, capricious boss and terrible work hours.

boshalfoshal 2y ago
Tesla AI orgs can pay well above market for AI talent. Thats about the only reason anyone would join. If you are insensitive to work hours but want to get paid, its not the worst option.
- acdha 2y ago
  Do they really outbid Google, Microsoft, Facebook, OpenAI, Apple, etc.? I totally believe they pay better than the average startup but those companies are spraying money around right now and their stock options have a lot more upside – Tesla’s P/E is wildly high so they’d need a phenomenal reversal in fortune to drive it enough higher for anyone to see a great return.
  - boshalfoshal 2y ago
    Its not uncommon for PhD hires from top schools to be paid upper 6figs (i.e 600k+) of real money, according to a few friends of mine doing PhDs at top schools. OpenAI is probably the only one thats truly "competitive." I also (personally) know of several non-ML offers that were substantially higher than FAANG. Though even within FAANG only Meta and maybe Google (and Amazon at hogher levels) are very competitive. Meta and Google likely have better growth prospects though with better refreshers, bonuses, stock growth, etc. But up front Tesla AI offers are definitely very strong. Even then I'm not sure its worth the stress.
bamboozled 2y ago
And even if you delivered something nice you could still get fired for something stupid. No thanks.

bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago

> That's why he's constantly announcing Security fraud.