3 ms·
Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
by yifanl 2y ago
Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
- autonomousErwin 2y agoI really wonder how true/untrue this is? For example, if you've founded and exited a company before I'm guessing you're more likely to do it again (this is gut feeling - I don't have data so happy for someone to disprove this with a study) but is that only because people think you're more likely to succeed and therefore give you more resources (capital, employees joining, customers paying etc.) improving your chances thus perpetuating this idea. It's like some kind of twisted Hot Hand fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_hand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_hand) that bends in on itself actually making it not a fallacy if everyone believes it.