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Instead, the tycoon promised that robotaxis would save the business, even as both of its partially automated driver assistance systems face recalls and investig

Instead, the tycoon promised that robotaxis would save the business, even as both of its partially automated driver assistance systems face recalls and investigations here in the US and in China. A decade of repeated, unfulfilled FSD promises does not inspire confidence in more of the same. Musk is chasing an illusion instead of simply focusing on making reliable, competitive transportation. Tesla is no longer a "growth" stock.

marricks 3y ago
Company has had a long head start, and could have focused on core assets of a car instead of dreams that never happened and seem likely to never happen. Not withstanding how folks might reasonably hate the CEO, or want different features than offered by the two main selling affordable cars, Consumer Reports is pretty easy to check and there are far, far, more reliable electric cars at this point. The reality distortion field of "every negative thing out there is just a personal attack out to destroy Musk" only holds out for so long.
- xnx 3y ago
  > Company has had a long head start, and could have focused on core assets of a car instead of dreams that never happened and seem likely to never happen. It seems like Tesla had to go "Hail Mary" on the dream/scam of "FSD" as a head start in electric vehicles doesn't provide any moat/advantage for simple vehicle sales. Whatever temporary advantage Tesla had in the drivetrain is negated by how much work that had to do to create (and often reinvent) every other part of car manufacturing.
  - jqpabc123 3y ago
    One of the worst Tesla designs is the big honking center touch screen that everything runs through. Just turning the wipers on becomes a road safety hazard. Using a touch screen while driving is now illegal in most states --- and for good reason. Tesla *requires* the use of a touch screen.
cqqxo4zV46cp 3y ago
Tesla boys want “an auto manufacturer run like a tech company” and that’s exactly what this is.
mushufasa 3y ago
There's a George Hotz lecture somewhere where he evicerates the Robotaxi business model. Essentially he makes the point that, if you have to own a fleet and maintain it, even if you stop paying driver's wages, you're not making profit compared to market rates for Uber drivers. Sad implication is that uber drivers themselves are underwater after taking into account depreciation and maintenance. A fleet where Tesla operates a network without needing to own or maintain the capital equipment is a lot more profitable, and they're one of the few companies positioned to pull it off (certainly not Waymo). Essentially, Tesla could make money on the vehicle sale, make money on the maintenance, and make a platform fee on the taxi network. Wonderful economics on paper. Win-win too: the car-owners supply the capital and in return receive the freedom of their own car plus an offset to their depreciation via the rental cash flow. That would mean that teslas would have incredible resale value compared to 'dumb' cars that don't produce cashflow. That said, trust in the network is key, and Tesla + Musk aren't exactly winning public trust recently. If this is going to work, each incremental rider needs to be able to trust that - if they try to book a Tesla robotaxi they will be able to find one available, nearby and in the time they want it - the car will work (well maintained, enough charge for their trip duration) - the self-driving will be safe While all those things are straightforward, to be honest, it's hard for me to imagine how they can provide a better value proposition than human Uber/Lyft in that regard, where in major cities a car is always 10 min away or less, and the driver has both a financial and survival interest in ensuring it's well maintained and safe (the driver's life also depends on it). Maybe the niche will be suburban or exurban places where human ride shares don't have enough demand to efficiently match with supply, and where people are okay waiting / planning in advance if they're sure a car will come. Could be some overlap with starlink market fit.
- candiodari 3y ago
  This one? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnh5TQ60hek https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnh5TQ60hek
- jqpabc123 3y ago
  Maybe Musk doesn't really care if robotaxis is a viable business plan or not. Maybe he is just looking for something, anything to give the stock price a jolt and help encourage investors to flat out give him $56B.
NickC25 3y ago
They guy could just double-down on scaling out Supercharger infrastructure and make an absolute killing. Instead, he's pinning the company's future on a technology that won't likely come to fruition any time soon.
- krapp 3y ago
  Elon's goal isn't money - he has more money than God. His goal is ego gratification. He wants to be Tony Stark, to do the cool shit that leads people to worship him as a genius and innovator.
  - workingdog 3y ago
    I'm ok with this nutball going to Mars. The world has enough boring billionaires.
  - NickC25 3y ago
    His personal goal isn't money, sure, but he's the CEO of a publicly traded entity. That entity's goal is money, and as the CEO, from a legal POV the entity's needs and goals need to be put first and foremost. If he doesn't want to be beholden to the needs of the public market, he's free to take Tesla private.
    - krapp 3y ago
      >If he doesn't want to be beholden to the needs of the public market, he's free to take Tesla private. He couldn't care less about the market or its needs.We live in a capitalist society and Elon Musk won capitalism. The man famously doesn't pay bills. He doesn't pay rent. He illegally put a giant light-up X on top of Twitter HQ that the police had to remove. He plays with companies like a kid playing with toys. He believes the rules don't apply to him, thus far he's been proven correct (possibly with the exception of being forced to buy Twitter - but he can afford to burn that to the ground if he wants.) He's gotten away with things that would have landed lesser people in prison many, many times, and has more money to throw at the consequences of his actions than most governments.
2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago
He should be investigated for lying to shareholders. I think he knew a lot of this was vaporware the whole time.
- rubicon33 3y ago
  Despite that truth, stock prices don’t reflect reality, they affect people’s perceptions and worries/hopes. TSLA still green for a while.

marricks 3y ago

Company has had a long head start, and could have focused on core assets of a car instead of dreams that never happened and seem likely to never happen. Not withstanding how folks might reasonably hate the CEO, or want different features than offered by the two main selling affordable cars, Consumer Reports is pretty easy to check and there are far, far, more reliable electric cars at this point. The reality distortion field of "every negative thing out there is just a personal attack out to destroy Musk" only holds out for so long.

xnx 3y ago
> Company has had a long head start, and could have focused on core assets of a car instead of dreams that never happened and seem likely to never happen. It seems like Tesla had to go "Hail Mary" on the dream/scam of "FSD" as a head start in electric vehicles doesn't provide any moat/advantage for simple vehicle sales. Whatever temporary advantage Tesla had in the drivetrain is negated by how much work that had to do to create (and often reinvent) every other part of car manufacturing.
- jqpabc123 3y ago
  One of the worst Tesla designs is the big honking center touch screen that everything runs through. Just turning the wipers on becomes a road safety hazard. Using a touch screen while driving is now illegal in most states --- and for good reason. Tesla *requires* the use of a touch screen.

cqqxo4zV46cp 3y ago

Tesla boys want “an auto manufacturer run like a tech company” and that’s exactly what this is.

mushufasa 3y ago

There's a George Hotz lecture somewhere where he evicerates the Robotaxi business model. Essentially he makes the point that, if you have to own a fleet and maintain it, even if you stop paying driver's wages, you're not making profit compared to market rates for Uber drivers. Sad implication is that uber drivers themselves are underwater after taking into account depreciation and maintenance. A fleet where Tesla operates a network without needing to own or maintain the capital equipment is a lot more profitable, and they're one of the few companies positioned to pull it off (certainly not Waymo). Essentially, Tesla could make money on the vehicle sale, make money on the maintenance, and make a platform fee on the taxi network. Wonderful economics on paper. Win-win too: the car-owners supply the capital and in return receive the freedom of their own car plus an offset to their depreciation via the rental cash flow. That would mean that teslas would have incredible resale value compared to 'dumb' cars that don't produce cashflow. That said, trust in the network is key, and Tesla + Musk aren't exactly winning public trust recently. If this is going to work, each incremental rider needs to be able to trust that - if they try to book a Tesla robotaxi they will be able to find one available, nearby and in the time they want it - the car will work (well maintained, enough charge for their trip duration) - the self-driving will be safe While all those things are straightforward, to be honest, it's hard for me to imagine how they can provide a better value proposition than human Uber/Lyft in that regard, where in major cities a car is always 10 min away or less, and the driver has both a financial and survival interest in ensuring it's well maintained and safe (the driver's life also depends on it). Maybe the niche will be suburban or exurban places where human ride shares don't have enough demand to efficiently match with supply, and where people are okay waiting / planning in advance if they're sure a car will come. Could be some overlap with starlink market fit.

candiodari 3y ago
This one? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnh5TQ60hek https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnh5TQ60hek
jqpabc123 3y ago
Maybe Musk doesn't really care if robotaxis is a viable business plan or not. Maybe he is just looking for something, anything to give the stock price a jolt and help encourage investors to flat out give him $56B.

NickC25 3y ago

They guy could just double-down on scaling out Supercharger infrastructure and make an absolute killing. Instead, he's pinning the company's future on a technology that won't likely come to fruition any time soon.

krapp 3y ago
Elon's goal isn't money - he has more money than God. His goal is ego gratification. He wants to be Tony Stark, to do the cool shit that leads people to worship him as a genius and innovator.
- workingdog 3y ago
  I'm ok with this nutball going to Mars. The world has enough boring billionaires.
- NickC25 3y ago
  His personal goal isn't money, sure, but he's the CEO of a publicly traded entity. That entity's goal is money, and as the CEO, from a legal POV the entity's needs and goals need to be put first and foremost. If he doesn't want to be beholden to the needs of the public market, he's free to take Tesla private.
  - krapp 3y ago
    >If he doesn't want to be beholden to the needs of the public market, he's free to take Tesla private. He couldn't care less about the market or its needs.We live in a capitalist society and Elon Musk won capitalism. The man famously doesn't pay bills. He doesn't pay rent. He illegally put a giant light-up X on top of Twitter HQ that the police had to remove. He plays with companies like a kid playing with toys. He believes the rules don't apply to him, thus far he's been proven correct (possibly with the exception of being forced to buy Twitter - but he can afford to burn that to the ground if he wants.) He's gotten away with things that would have landed lesser people in prison many, many times, and has more money to throw at the consequences of his actions than most governments.

2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago

He should be investigated for lying to shareholders. I think he knew a lot of this was vaporware the whole time.

rubicon33 3y ago
Despite that truth, stock prices don’t reflect reality, they affect people’s perceptions and worries/hopes. TSLA still green for a while.