4 ms·

My opinion is 5 years to "perfect". Qualified because nothing is perfect. I tell people that in 10 years, the insurance companies will charge 2x more to drive a

My opinion is 5 years to "perfect". Qualified because nothing is perfect. I tell people that in 10 years, the insurance companies will charge 2x more to drive a car yourself. And in 20 years, you just won't be allowed to drive.

SoftTalker 2y ago
It may happen but your timeframe is too short. A lot of people can't even afford cars that are less than 10 years old.
- intrasight 2y ago
  They'd be taking robotaxis
Retric 2y ago
Your timeline makes no sense. Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. Insurance companies raise and lower their premiums in response to risk. You might get a discount for self driving car eventually, but people who keep driving will just keep paying the same reasonably affordable rates as they do now.
- falcor84 2y ago
  > Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. That's a bit of a leap. If and when FSD becomes sufficiently reliable to enable you to legally relinquish control to it, including have it take you anywhere even when you're intoxicated, without any personal liability, I expect adoption to ramp up very quickly. Also, depending on what technical solution ends up winning this race, it might be possible to convert existing old cars to FSD.
  - SketchySeaBeast 2y ago
    I don't think most people buy cars for new features like that - most of America doesn't have that luxury. I'm also unsure as to conversion - many people can't/won't buy winter tires in environments that could use it, and there's no way I could imagine that a FSD conversion would be that cheap.
    - intrasight 2y ago
      "FSD conversion" - sounds so cyberpunk
  - Retric 2y ago
    > including have it take you anywhere even when you're intoxicated, without any personal liability People get arrested for sleeping in their cars while drunk. It’s going to be a long time before a legal self driving exception exists for drunk people. People who have 20 year old cars generally can’t afford a new one and installing a self driving kit isn’t going to be cheap or worth it on a car that old.
  - jjav 2y ago
    > If and when FSD becomes sufficiently reliable [...] I expect adoption to ramp up very quickly. There's basically zero chance of that. Working people are not going to be buying very expensive new cars just because it has a working FSD feature. A handful (relative to population) rich people will but that's it. For FSD to be everywhere first it needs to become reliable, then it needs to trickly down into every Toyota Corolla and then it needs to trickle down into the used market of people who won't buy anything newer than 10+ years old. > take you anywhere even when you're intoxicated, without any personal liability That probably won't happen in the next 50 years, regardless of technical advances. The law will refuse to catch up.
- intrasight 2y ago
  > Insurance companies raise and lower their premiums in response to risk. So we're saying the same thing
  - Retric 2y ago
    You suggested the difference in total risk is 50% not just a drop in rates. Self driving cars can’t impact the risk of a someone bashing the windshield to get stuff out, hail or a tree falling on your car, it getting stolen, an uninsured motorist rear ending you at a stoplight etc. But it will mean replacing your car is more expensive should it get stolen etc. Further if you assume more ultra self driving cars are on the road the human drivers risks also drop.
    - intrasight 2y ago
      Most insurance risk and cost is for liability
      - Retric 2y ago
        Not on average and per person it’s highly dependent on the policy, a persons driving history, and their car etc. Minimum-liability coverage averages $627/year, average policy runs 2008$ /year. In terms of individual drivers, an antique show car driven very limited miles per year the policy’s costs have little to do with the driver’s accident history. Meanwhile someone with multiple DUI’s is paying for the risks associated with their behavior.
oblio 2y ago
> Researchers in the 1960s and the 1970s were convinced that their methods would eventually succeed in creating a machine with general intelligence and considered this the goal of their field.[269] Herbert Simon predicted, "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do".[270] Marvin Minsky agreed, writing, "within a generation ... the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will substantially be solved".[271] They had, however, underestimated the difficulty of the problem.

SoftTalker 2y ago

It may happen but your timeframe is too short. A lot of people can't even afford cars that are less than 10 years old.

intrasight 2y ago
They'd be taking robotaxis

Retric 2y ago

Your timeline makes no sense. Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. Insurance companies raise and lower their premiums in response to risk. You might get a discount for self driving car eventually, but people who keep driving will just keep paying the same reasonably affordable rates as they do now.

falcor84 2y ago
> Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. That's a bit of a leap. If and when FSD becomes sufficiently reliable to enable you to legally relinquish control to it, including have it take you anywhere even when you're intoxicated, without any personal liability, I expect adoption to ramp up very quickly. Also, depending on what technical solution ends up winning this race, it might be possible to convert existing old cars to FSD.
- SketchySeaBeast 2y ago
  I don't think most people buy cars for new features like that - most of America doesn't have that luxury. I'm also unsure as to conversion - many people can't/won't buy winter tires in environments that could use it, and there's no way I could imagine that a FSD conversion would be that cheap.
  - intrasight 2y ago
    "FSD conversion" - sounds so cyberpunk
- Retric 2y ago
  > including have it take you anywhere even when you're intoxicated, without any personal liability People get arrested for sleeping in their cars while drunk. It’s going to be a long time before a legal self driving exception exists for drunk people. People who have 20 year old cars generally can’t afford a new one and installing a self driving kit isn’t going to be cheap or worth it on a car that old.
- jjav 2y ago
  > If and when FSD becomes sufficiently reliable [...] I expect adoption to ramp up very quickly. There's basically zero chance of that. Working people are not going to be buying very expensive new cars just because it has a working FSD feature. A handful (relative to population) rich people will but that's it. For FSD to be everywhere first it needs to become reliable, then it needs to trickly down into every Toyota Corolla and then it needs to trickle down into the used market of people who won't buy anything newer than 10+ years old. > take you anywhere even when you're intoxicated, without any personal liability That probably won't happen in the next 50 years, regardless of technical advances. The law will refuse to catch up.
intrasight 2y ago
> Insurance companies raise and lower their premiums in response to risk. So we're saying the same thing
- Retric 2y ago
  You suggested the difference in total risk is 50% not just a drop in rates. Self driving cars can’t impact the risk of a someone bashing the windshield to get stuff out, hail or a tree falling on your car, it getting stolen, an uninsured motorist rear ending you at a stoplight etc. But it will mean replacing your car is more expensive should it get stolen etc. Further if you assume more ultra self driving cars are on the road the human drivers risks also drop.
  - intrasight 2y ago
    Most insurance risk and cost is for liability
    - Retric 2y ago
      Not on average and per person it’s highly dependent on the policy, a persons driving history, and their car etc. Minimum-liability coverage averages $627/year, average policy runs 2008$ /year. In terms of individual drivers, an antique show car driven very limited miles per year the policy’s costs have little to do with the driver’s accident history. Meanwhile someone with multiple DUI’s is paying for the risks associated with their behavior.

oblio 2y ago

> Researchers in the 1960s and the 1970s were convinced that their methods would eventually succeed in creating a machine with general intelligence and considered this the goal of their field.[269] Herbert Simon predicted, "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do".[270] Marvin Minsky agreed, writing, "within a generation ... the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will substantially be solved".[271] They had, however, underestimated the difficulty of the problem.