3 ms·

But MacBooks have sold in the millions/year now for essentially 33 years,

dijit 2y ago
I dont want to argue semantics, but a broad statement like this implies that all units sold are still in service. These things follow a curve, for laptops theres steep drop offs at 3, 5 and 8 years. 98% of 3 year old devices 60% of 5 year old devices 5% of 8y old devices. So you’d need to apply a sliding scale. Macbooks feel pretty ubiquitous, you cant use the entire 33y run of Macbooks to imply that the demographic is an order of magnitude more than what the parent implied.
- justinator 2y ago
  Not semantics, but if you think of examples of at least pop culture that we think of as being in the mainstream, it's about staying power of the genre. For example let's take Rock 'n Roll. When it really became popular -- say Elvis gyrating those hips -- he alone sold 10 million records in a year. And critics then talked of it as a fad that would die out. Elvis would continue to record, continue to sell millions, but eventually - well he died, but rock 'n roll the idea, the genre lived on. In fact rock 'n roll songs were written about how it will always rock 'n roll in defience of the "fad" label. And ~fifty/sixty years later, there are still rock 'n roll bands selling millions/records/year. Not Elvis but the genre remains. We can't quite compare records sales now anymore because physical media just isn't sold really anymore. That "staying power" isn't something VR headsets have (yet). Laptops have that. Critics say that VR is a fad and I think that's more what they mean. They say more critical things as well, but that's sort of the gist. Another example is the automobile: “[Motor cars] have the appearance of a fad, and an extremely dirty, dusty, inconvenient fad… These crude impracticable machines are unlikely for many years to displace in the Englishman’s affection a fine trotting horse and a smart trap.” -- Anonymous Horserider It's too soon to tell with VR headsets, but their limited capability, high price, and well: relative usefulessness seems not in their favor.
  - cedilla 2y ago
    The (alleged) quote about cars being a fad dates to 1901. A similar quote from a banker rejecting investment in Ford Motor Company is from 1903, before the first Model A was produced. I guess we're much farther along in the development of VR headsets than that. In any case, there might have been grumblers, but history shows that as soon cheap and reliable cars where available, they sold like crazy. There will be always grumblers but they also often point out fads correctly. 3D TVs are a good example, I think. Or quadrophonic records.
    - justinator 2y ago
      What do you think would be the killer app for the AVP?

I dont want to argue semantics, but a broad statement like this implies that all units sold are still in service. These things follow a curve, for laptops theres steep drop offs at 3, 5 and 8 years. 98% of 3 year old devices 60% of 5 year old devices 5% of 8y old devices. So you’d need to apply a sliding scale. Macbooks feel pretty ubiquitous, you cant use the entire 33y run of Macbooks to imply that the demographic is an order of magnitude more than what the parent implied.

justinator 2y ago
Not semantics, but if you think of examples of at least pop culture that we think of as being in the mainstream, it's about staying power of the genre. For example let's take Rock 'n Roll. When it really became popular -- say Elvis gyrating those hips -- he alone sold 10 million records in a year. And critics then talked of it as a fad that would die out. Elvis would continue to record, continue to sell millions, but eventually - well he died, but rock 'n roll the idea, the genre lived on. In fact rock 'n roll songs were written about how it will always rock 'n roll in defience of the "fad" label. And ~fifty/sixty years later, there are still rock 'n roll bands selling millions/records/year. Not Elvis but the genre remains. We can't quite compare records sales now anymore because physical media just isn't sold really anymore. That "staying power" isn't something VR headsets have (yet). Laptops have that. Critics say that VR is a fad and I think that's more what they mean. They say more critical things as well, but that's sort of the gist. Another example is the automobile: “[Motor cars] have the appearance of a fad, and an extremely dirty, dusty, inconvenient fad… These crude impracticable machines are unlikely for many years to displace in the Englishman’s affection a fine trotting horse and a smart trap.” -- Anonymous Horserider It's too soon to tell with VR headsets, but their limited capability, high price, and well: relative usefulessness seems not in their favor.
- cedilla 2y ago
  The (alleged) quote about cars being a fad dates to 1901. A similar quote from a banker rejecting investment in Ford Motor Company is from 1903, before the first Model A was produced. I guess we're much farther along in the development of VR headsets than that. In any case, there might have been grumblers, but history shows that as soon cheap and reliable cars where available, they sold like crazy. There will be always grumblers but they also often point out fads correctly. 3D TVs are a good example, I think. Or quadrophonic records.
  - justinator 2y ago
    What do you think would be the killer app for the AVP?