4 ms·

I would guess its job loss, which subsequently covers food, shelter, those needs for their dependents, etc.

by rbuck 2y ago

bamboozled 2y ago
It will change pretty fast is everyone loses their job. We've created this reality honestly. We've had the technology for a very long time to easily provide food, clothing and shelter for everyone probably 10x over. It just doesn't happen because > 50% of people are doing ok. In other words, we mostly play the game that suits us.
- OccamsMirror 2y ago
  It's not going to be pretty fast. It will be gradual. 0.5% employment loss this year. 1% loss the next year. 1.2% the year after. Ten years later the middle class is almost non-existent. Unemployment is 25% and pundits are calling it "the new normal". You and your wife and your two kids now live with her parents. You share a three bedroom in the suburbs. Every morning you both leave early to stand amongst fifty others outside the local Amazon Mechanical Turk offices. Once a software developer with a thriving career, you're now just another face in the crowd, hoping for a day's work training AI — your deep knowledge reduced to manual inputs for algorithms you once could have designed. The daily scramble for work, even with your computer science degree, has become a grim routine. The young woman with the tablet doesn’t even meet your eyes as she checks you in. "You're training AI for advanced behavioral prediction in smart home systems." Your wife misses out. Her PHD in physics is no help. There's still some good jobs out there, but the supply vastly outstrips demand. Your kids witness the daily tension and uncertainty that you and your wife face, the scramble for sporadic employment, the diminishing returns on your education and experience. This environment is their new normal; they adapt, but at a cost. The stress and instability shape their expectations from life, narrowing their dreams to mere thoughts of making it through each day. They have no idea how great the 90s truly were. This generational shift means that the skills, values, and aspirations that once propelled the middle class are forgotten or dismissed as irrelevant. As the middle class dissolved under the relentless march of AI and automation, the notion of Universal Basic Income (UBI) was quickly dismissed as "unrealistic" and "impossible" by policymakers. Tax rates for the capital-rich continued to plummet, entrenching wealth in the hands of a few. This stark contradiction highlighted a society deeply invested in maintaining the status quo, prioritizing wealth accumulation at the top while the concept of a basic, stabilizing income for the displaced masses easily cast aside as an unfeasible dream. This grim future is not merely possible but an impending reality on our current trajectory, where technological advancements are harnessed to consolidate wealth at the top, and equitable solutions like UBI are dismissed as fantasies. The future promises a deepening divide and escalating societal strife. The idea of a sudden, dramatic loss of jobs sparking immediate and widespread unrest underestimates the more insidious nature of technological displacement. This process is neither swift nor explosive; rather, it unfolds gradually, almost imperceptibly, eroding job security and living standards slowly over years. By the time the consequences fully manifest (soaring unemployment and entrenched wealth inequality) it feels too late to act.
  - bamboozled 2y ago
    Every morning you both leave early to stand amongst fifty others outside the local Amazon Mechanical Turk offices. Once a software developer with a thriving career, you're now just another face in the crowd, hoping for a day's work training AI — your deep knowledge reduced to manual inputs for algorithms you once could have designed. I don't know if you're trolling or not but this is an absurd take on what an AI infused future would look like
    - OccamsMirror 2y ago
      Just a modern version of the "shape-ups" or hiring lines from the Great Depression. Just as workers lined up each day back then for a chance at temporary jobs, the scenario I described with people queuing at Amazon Mechanical Turk offices mirrors that. Of course you wouldn't literally line up at a building, you'd just go and sign up from the comfort of your old laptop on the dining room table: https://www.mturk.com/get-started https://www.mturk.com/get-started The reality is the "gig economy" is the digitally disrupted version of job lines. We're already there.
      - bamboozled 2y ago
        I mean look how great things have been since then, since the great depression? If we're already in it, we're already one step closer to the post depression era utopia for the 30s and 40s. You've made a strange comparison though because the great depression had little to do with technological advancement?
        OccamsMirror 2y ago
        It wasn’t that deep a comparison. I just liked the imagery of people lining up for work outside “Mechanical Turk Centers”. It’s more a nod to the 25% unemployment of the Great Depression.

I would guess its job loss, which subsequently covers food, shelter, those needs for their dependents, etc.

by rbuck 2y ago

I would guess its job loss, which subsequently covers food, shelter, those needs for their dependents, etc.

It will change pretty fast is everyone loses their job. We've created this reality honestly. We've had the technology for a very long time to easily provide food, clothing and shelter for everyone probably 10x over. It just doesn't happen because > 50% of people are doing ok. In other words, we mostly play the game that suits us.

OccamsMirror 2y ago
It's not going to be pretty fast. It will be gradual. 0.5% employment loss this year. 1% loss the next year. 1.2% the year after. Ten years later the middle class is almost non-existent. Unemployment is 25% and pundits are calling it "the new normal". You and your wife and your two kids now live with her parents. You share a three bedroom in the suburbs. Every morning you both leave early to stand amongst fifty others outside the local Amazon Mechanical Turk offices. Once a software developer with a thriving career, you're now just another face in the crowd, hoping for a day's work training AI — your deep knowledge reduced to manual inputs for algorithms you once could have designed. The daily scramble for work, even with your computer science degree, has become a grim routine. The young woman with the tablet doesn’t even meet your eyes as she checks you in. "You're training AI for advanced behavioral prediction in smart home systems." Your wife misses out. Her PHD in physics is no help. There's still some good jobs out there, but the supply vastly outstrips demand. Your kids witness the daily tension and uncertainty that you and your wife face, the scramble for sporadic employment, the diminishing returns on your education and experience. This environment is their new normal; they adapt, but at a cost. The stress and instability shape their expectations from life, narrowing their dreams to mere thoughts of making it through each day. They have no idea how great the 90s truly were. This generational shift means that the skills, values, and aspirations that once propelled the middle class are forgotten or dismissed as irrelevant. As the middle class dissolved under the relentless march of AI and automation, the notion of Universal Basic Income (UBI) was quickly dismissed as "unrealistic" and "impossible" by policymakers. Tax rates for the capital-rich continued to plummet, entrenching wealth in the hands of a few. This stark contradiction highlighted a society deeply invested in maintaining the status quo, prioritizing wealth accumulation at the top while the concept of a basic, stabilizing income for the displaced masses easily cast aside as an unfeasible dream. This grim future is not merely possible but an impending reality on our current trajectory, where technological advancements are harnessed to consolidate wealth at the top, and equitable solutions like UBI are dismissed as fantasies. The future promises a deepening divide and escalating societal strife. The idea of a sudden, dramatic loss of jobs sparking immediate and widespread unrest underestimates the more insidious nature of technological displacement. This process is neither swift nor explosive; rather, it unfolds gradually, almost imperceptibly, eroding job security and living standards slowly over years. By the time the consequences fully manifest (soaring unemployment and entrenched wealth inequality) it feels too late to act.
- bamboozled 2y ago
  Every morning you both leave early to stand amongst fifty others outside the local Amazon Mechanical Turk offices. Once a software developer with a thriving career, you're now just another face in the crowd, hoping for a day's work training AI — your deep knowledge reduced to manual inputs for algorithms you once could have designed. I don't know if you're trolling or not but this is an absurd take on what an AI infused future would look like
  - OccamsMirror 2y ago
    Just a modern version of the "shape-ups" or hiring lines from the Great Depression. Just as workers lined up each day back then for a chance at temporary jobs, the scenario I described with people queuing at Amazon Mechanical Turk offices mirrors that. Of course you wouldn't literally line up at a building, you'd just go and sign up from the comfort of your old laptop on the dining room table: https://www.mturk.com/get-started https://www.mturk.com/get-started The reality is the "gig economy" is the digitally disrupted version of job lines. We're already there.
    - bamboozled 2y ago
      I mean look how great things have been since then, since the great depression? If we're already in it, we're already one step closer to the post depression era utopia for the 30s and 40s. You've made a strange comparison though because the great depression had little to do with technological advancement?
      - OccamsMirror 2y ago
        It wasn’t that deep a comparison. I just liked the imagery of people lining up for work outside “Mechanical Turk Centers”. It’s more a nod to the 25% unemployment of the Great Depression.